No relief likely for the HOT/DRY SE through next WED...

[USAwx1]

And if anything it may just get HOTTER through the end of next week But i DO have some good news, i did save a bunch of Money on my car insurance by switching to Geico!!

On a more serious note....Tonight's ECMWF is painting a VERY warm and DRY picture for the southeast through at least THU of next week, the following will be CRITICAL in determining just how hot it gets between now and then.

1) Position of the deep layer ridge, the axis of which is progged to be over FL through much of the early and middle portion of the next week.

2) The strong westerly flow around the high and downsloping wind component along the east side of the Appalachians, could (through compressional warming) help to make an already bad situation WORSE.

3) 850H temps the ECWMF suggests may reach as high as 20 DEG C across interior central GA on WED, but as an overall rule remain ABOVE 16 DEG C through the period, which ASSUMING that we have full or near full sun on those days should yield MAX temps in the ~29-34 DEG C (84-93F) range.

4) Dry ground and inability to fire off afternoon convection due to pronounced capping underneath the thermal ridge.

So, with the combination of the dry ground plus the downsloping component, more lower to mid 90s are likely for INTERIOR FL, GA, SC. Remember though, cloud debris from upstream convection or anvil blowoff in the absence of a sufficient mid level jet to get rid of it would hold a lid on things somewhat.

THE POTENTIAL CHANGES AFTER THU:

And there are some on the way IF the ECMWF pulls through on this one. EVEN for portions of FL.

On THU ECMWF develops more amplified trough across the EUS, with 500mb heights decreasing to between 570 and 582 DM, and 850H temps dropping to between 12-16 DEG C over SC, GA and NRN NC, and falling into the 16-17C range over much of FL. a STARK contrast to the near 20 DEG C readings possible during the early and middle portions of the week on the heels of a 15-20 KT NW flow at 850mb.

as far as precip is concerned, as the ridge flattens some on THU and FRI it should allow more sufficient LLVL moisture (as evidenced by increasing RH's at 850mb) to get into the region, potentially firing off convection in association w/ the sea breeze boundaries.

Further north into GA and the Carolinas....a rather potent s/w diving down into the WRN OH valley on WED which swings through the region on THU should generate enough large scale lift to initiate widespread convection. Severe MAY be a possibility also.

[USAwx1]

New 0z 5/29 MESOETA has 850H temps SOARING to near 20 DEG C over a small portion of SE GA and SE SC by 21z, w/ low level thicknesses in the 1430-1435 M range stretching from INTERIOR Central FL, into GA and SC. add on +13 to 14 DEG for full sun in MAY to the 850H temps of ~20 C and one finds surface temps close between 33-34 C or right around 93F.

As described in my last post (and considering how the 93F temp which i just mentioned is based completely on use of the 850 temp rule, and assuming that were dealing with no obstructing cloud cloud cover, which would imply less surface warming) w/ the downsloping flow along the eastern side of the mountains, as well as dry ground, we could assume there would be some places which reach the mid and upper 90s, mainly AWAY from the coast (and associated sea breeze) underneath the low level thickness max and highest 850mb temps....Food for thought.

[FWBHurricane]

Oh god USA I hate those commercials! LOL...but yeah it has been getting hotter, tomorrw the temps are suppost to get into the upper 90s...today it got to 92 i think. Beautiful beach weather.

[USAwx1]

Oh god USA I hate those commercials! LOL...but yeah it has been getting hotter, tomorrw the temps are suppost to get into the upper 90s...today it got to 92 i think. Beautiful beach weather.

tell me about it....LOL, if anything Geico is MORE expensive than most other providers.

Great beach weather it is, i sort of miss that.

Otherwise a helluva COLD night up here in the southern catskills, under clear skies, w/ colder airmass building in and 850 temps (per the latest RUC) falling to between 0 and 2C, and low level thicknesses of 1325-1330 meters --- should see quite a few places in the 30s and 40s, and the normal cold air traps, such as this area, COULD see some scattered frost. Pretty dense fog might also be a problem given decoupling.

heh....and to think when i left florida i didnt even bring my jacket w/ me. LOL

BGM is already down to 48F......it's 46.6F here where im at, so am thinking upper 30s are a good possibility, especially given upstream dewpoints over upstate NY, VT and NH in the low to mid 30s as of 4z, w/ good NW flow and CAA.

[Valkhorn]

We're getting relief right now in the form of Rain in east central MS.

Plus there will probably be a chance of thunderstorms around Sunday to Monday.

That's not too bad considering.

[USAwx1]

We're getting relief right now in the form of Rain in east central MS.

Plus there will probably be a chance of thunderstorms around Sunday to Monday.

That's not too bad considering.

When i talk about the Southeast, I'm most specifically referring to the Carolinas, GA and FL.

In MS, there isn't as much of a problem w/ lack of rainfall, potential drought development, or extremely parched ground, low crop and soil moisture or EXCESSIVE heat as there is in the aforementioned areas.

However the situation as of yet is NOT as severe as it was in 1998 (and let's hope it STAYS that way) Other saving grace, we don't have the raging LA NINA to really crank the ridge ---- like in 1998. So for that reason, while it is HOT and DRY in the SE, at least it's not a flashback to the summer of 1998.

[Stormsfury]

Solar flux isn't nowhere near as high as the summer of 1998 as well ...

Some of the newest model run (12z Canadian, 0z ECMWF - 12z run not available yet, GFS now beginning to hint at a weak low pressure system developing in the Southeast sometimes towards next weekend ...)

*crossing fingers*

[USAwx1]

Solar flux isn't nowhere near as high as the summer of 1998 as well ...

Some of the newest model run (12z Canadian, 0z ECMWF - 12z run not available yet, GFS now beginning to hint at a weak low pressure system developing in the Southeast sometimes towards next weekend ...)

*crossing fingers*

1998 934 934 1091 1083 1067 1084 1140 1360 1383 1173 1402 1501
1999 1426 1420 1263 1172 1486 1698 1656 1708 1357 1648 1915 1698

2003 1440 1245 1322 1263 1162 1293 1277 1221 1122 1513 1408 1150
2004 1141 1070 1120 1012 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999

Actually, its right around the same now as it was then, however, had it been higher, along the lines of AUG 2001, heh, you don't wanna know what the result would have been. i believe the more prevalent influence was the rapidly developing LA NINA.....

ONI (Oceanic NINO index) values 1998:

1998 -0.1 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5
1999 -1.6 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 -1.2 -1.4 -1.6

SSTA:

1998 6 25.18 2.22 26.00 -0.37 28.61 -0.03 26.72 -0.78
1998 7 23.43 1.63 25.24 -0.35 28.07 -0.50 25.94 -1.14
1998 8 21.77 0.98 24.63 -0.33 27.77 -0.68 25.49 -1.22
1998 9 20.87 0.43 24.19 -0.64 27.88 -0.60 25.61 -1.04
1998 10 21.16 0.27 24.06 -0.83 27.33 -1.07 25.34 -1.26
1998 11 21.43 -0.21 24.11 -0.85 27.23 -1.13 25.18 -1.33
1998 12 22.56 -0.24 23.86 -1.22 27.11 -1.17 24.79 -1.69

LA NINA developed RAPIDLY in 1998 from east to west in the EQ PAC, this year has NOT been the same:

2004 0.4 0.2 -9.9 -9.9 -9.9 -9.9 -9.9 -9.9 -9.9 -9.9 -9.9 -9.9

2004 1 24.60 0.09 25.92 0.30 28.83 0.68 26.74 0.23
2004 2 25.81 -0.22 26.46 0.10 28.59 0.58 26.86 0.17
2004 3 25.94 -0.54 27.16 0.08 28.43 0.34 27.10 -0.05
2004 4 25.41 -0.07 27.39 -0.01 28.73 0.33 27.83 0.15

[USAwx1]

and we were at opposite ends of solar cycle number 23, right now were in the declining stage following the 2000, and 2002 solar maximum, 1998 was trending toward the solar max.

[Stormsfury]

Damn, I should looked at the right line (I've worked WAY TOO MUCH in the last 2 months ...). The pattern was definitely more blocked in 1998, but in the Southeast, you couldn't convince me of that for the time being anyway. But yeah, instead of rapidly developing Niña, the overall tendency is a neutral state with cool anomalies east, warm anomalies west.

August 1999 (the 1st to be specific), Charleston, SC set an all-time record high of 105º (beating the 104º set on July 19th, and 20th, 1986, although the heat index values in 1986 were MUCH higher than 1999. The 1986 heat wave was accompanied by very high humidity values... lows during the heat wave stayed in the low 80's).

[USAwx1]

SOI values were also rapidly increasing positive in response to the transition from EL NINO to LA NINA

1998 -2.6 -1.8 -1.3 -.2 .4 .5 1.0 .3 .9 .9 1.5 2.3

This year, there has been less of a defined trend as there was in 1998 (negative to positive) with ups and downs noted in the monthly means since JAN:

2004 .6 .9 .0 .8 999.9 999.9 999.9 999.9 999.9 999.9 999.9 999.9

or averaging AOA +0.5

BTW, 18z MesoETA still has850H temps in the 18-20 DEG C range w/ continued downsloping under 850H westerly flow of 25-35 KT across GA and SC MON.

[Stormsfury]

The time frame I'm seeing is towards next weekend ... in the shorter term, the GFS is overdoing the coverage of QPF (like usual in convective situations in the Southeast), and the ETA seems to have a better handle on things thru 84 hours ...

There's a relative agreement with the mods that in the next couple of days, a s/w develops a convective cluster in Alabama somewhere and begins to ride it northeast ... the GFS seems to be a little overeager to push down a backdoor cold front through the area and not wash it out (something I believe, the GFS is too aggressive in holding together), but if ANYTHING ... it just might be a little difference that changes the primary SFC wind reflection from W (or WNW) to a little more of a SW component, and thusly, would result in the seabreeze having a chance of initiate isolated to scattered convection, and it wouldn't hurt of leftover convective outflow boundaries could get involved ...

Short term doesn't look very impressive, either with VV's ... going no greater than -3, and a general westerly wind thru 60 hours ..

http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/loop/36km.700w.html

My hopes are riding on late next week/next weekend ...

SF

[USAwx1]

The time frame I'm seeing is towards next weekend ... in the shorter term, the GFS is overdoing the coverage of QPF (like usual in convective situations in the Southeast), and the ETA seems to have a better handle on things thru 84 hours ...

There's a relative agreement with the mods that in the next couple of days, a s/w develops a convective cluster in Alabama somewhere and begins to ride it northeast ... the GFS seems to be a little overeager to push down a backdoor cold front through the area and not wash it out (something I believe, the GFS is too aggressive in holding together), but if ANYTHING ... it just might be a little difference that changes the primary SFC wind reflection from W (or WNW) to a little more of a SW component, and thusly, would result in the seabreeze having a chance of initiate isolated to scattered convection, and it wouldn't hurt of leftover convective outflow boundaries could get involved ...

Short term doesn't look very impressive, either with VV's ... going no greater than -3, and a general westerly wind thru 60 hours ..

http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/loop/36km.700w.html

My hopes are riding on late next week/next weekend ...

SF

the GFS is notorious for having gridscale/convective feedback problems.

We need to see convective temps come down, and an increase in BLYR moisture.