No such thing as overdue????

[Rainband]

According to Max Mayfield there is

Keeping an eye on the Bay area during hurricane season
Sunday, May 30, 2004


The Bay area is long overdue for a major storm.
With the start of hurricane season just two days away hurricane experts are keeping a close eye on the Bay area.

A hurricane hunter airplane that flies into the eye of hurricanes and tropical storms will be used to monitor the storm. The airplane collects weather data like wind, speed and direction.

"To get that detailed information that we really can't get from any other observing tool," said Director of the National Hurricane Center Max Mayfield.

"The Tampa Bay area is one of my areas of greatest concern. It's been 1921 since we've had a major hurricane to hit Tampa Bay directly.

Texas native Shawn Bennett moved to take over the National Weather Service Office in Hillsborough County, he also has concerns.

He says the Bay area is overdue for a big storm.

"The probability, statistically speaking is higher now than it was say ten years ago that we get a hurricane here, a major hurricane," he said.

Bay News 9 will monitor weather patterns closely during the tropical storm season.
Source* Bay news 9.com

[Josephine96]

Good article..

There was a good 1 in the Orlando Sentinel today too

[Guest]

It amazing when you think of all these areas that have not been affected by a major hurricane in such a long time.

[Josephine96]

I think we here in Central Florida are way overdue

[stormchazer]

Worry not as a dome of "pixie dust" protects us here in Central Fl. I sure hope thats true??!!

[Typhoon_Willie]

Mother Nature has a way of evening things out so unfortunately those areas that have not seen a major hurricane in some time, will get visited at some point in the future... I just hope that when that happens people will have a plan of action ready to go when the warning goes up!

[Josephine96]

LMAO about the pixie dust theory

[MWatkins]

Whelp...I hate to write this, but Max is wrong.

There really isn't such a thing as "Overdue" probability wise. I'll explain.

The difference is between shuffling and randomizing. Let's say we were betting on whether or not a black card would be dealt from a standard deck of 52 cards. If I'm betting that it will happen, my chance of winning the bet goes up every time a red card comes off the deck, as long as the old cards are not used again.

At the onset of the bet, 26 of the 52 cards are black, giving me a 50% chance of being right. If we go 20 deals in a row with a red card, my chances of winning go WAY up because sooner or later a black card is "due", in this case I have 26 chances with 32 cards left, a whopping 82% chance. The deck is shuffled, but a card cannot appear more than once.

Nature, however, does not shuffle. Every season, and every storm, is one card out of a full deck. Nature reshuffles after every card (storm) is played, meaning that the probabilty of having a black card is ALWAYS 50%. It never changes.

Thus, the deck is always randomized. So just because we have had 26 red cards in a row, there is still a 50/50 chance that the next one is black. I would venture to guess that Max would admit this if pressed, but I am all for any statement that gets people more prepared.

However, Max is right in the sense that Tampa had gone a long time without a storm...so over time old evacuation procedures, increase in polulation, lak of preparedness and overall public indifference may cause things to become very serious if a storm does threaten the area.

MW