MLC moving off MX. coast this morning..........

[Dean4Storms]

could be something to keep an eye on.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[vbhoutex]

We in SE TX or SW LA may have to watch that later today if it holds together. But, with the shear still screaming out of the NW just east of that system I see no chance of any development at this time. If the shear weren't present I would be watching it much closer.

[chadtm80]

I agree David.. No developement.. The sheer will tear her apart.. And it will be moving in to Texas rather quickly anyway.

[bbadon]

From what I see even with the shear it still has some potential if it moves anymore offshore. It has put the brakes on and is not moving much.

[Anonymous]

Still, that loop shows monsterous shear over the Western GOM, and off of the Panhandle of Florida for the Eastern GOM.

[chadtm80]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Johnny]

The convection blob South of Brownsville is really getting its act together now isn't it?

[KatDaddy]

Just a group of thunderstorms moving off the Mexican Coast. The shear will rip apart the storm complex.

[Wnghs2007]

There looks to be an LLC trying to form, but over land, and on the eastern side of the thunderstorms strong shear is evident. SO sorry i dont believe it is something to watch.

[Guest]

There looks to be an LLC trying to form, but over land, and on the eastern side of the thunderstorms strong shear is evident. SO sorry i dont believe it is something to watch.

I agree,nothing there catches my attention.

[wxman57]

Hmmm, this blob does have me a bit concerned. Visible loops definitely show at least an MLC. And I wouldn't necessarily trust those shear maps all the time - they're only as good as the data that's input into them. Lots of times they're clueless about upper winds in the tropics. I can see an upper-level ridge over the blob.

[GulfHills]

CHAD,

Very nice tribute to President Reagan!

[Wnghs2007]

OH DEAR GOD.


I JUST WENT TO THE ATWC.ORG TO CHECK THE LATEST SATILITE. AND I DID A THIRTY IMAGE LOOP OF VISIBLE AND CLICKED ON THIS AREA OF CONCERN AND DURING THE LAST 15 IMAGES IT LOOKS DISTINCTLY LIKE A TROPICAL SYSTEM. HERE IS A LINK BELOW. USE 30 IMAGE VISBIBLE SAT. AND CLICK ON THE SOUTHERN MOST BALL OF THUNDERSTORM MOVING OUT INTO THE OCEAN.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[wxman57]

Here's an image with sfc obs plotted in yellow, green lines are 200mb streamlines and white lines are 700mb flow. There's a bit of ridging over the thunderstorms. 700mb flow suggests a track northward up the coast and into Texas. Sfc obs show no evidence of an LLC.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/disturb.gif">

[Dean4Storms]

Hmmm, this blob does have me a bit concerned. Visible loops definitely show at least an MLC. And I wouldn't necessarily trust those shear maps all the time - they're only as good as the data that's input into them. Lots of times they're clueless about upper winds in the tropics. I can see an upper-level ridge over the blob.

I'm with you on this one, could be a quick developer. Seems to have a ridge aloft directly over it and the shear to the east is actually helping it to vent. Will be interesting to watch!

[bbadon]

Ok guys this last vis sat pic is looking very interesting. This thing is really starting to churn. This board will be hopping shortly. The Barometer Bob show should be interesting tonight if this holds together.

[Johnny]

wxman, you might, I said might be onto something. I just checked out radar loops and it has pushed a bit more into open water and has taken on tropical characteristics.

Check it out!






http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Stormsfury]

First of all, the region is dominated by SE winds at the SFC ...



Now, let's look at the WV imagery ... quite an interesting look to it ... but notice two things ... classic MCV with divergence, and s/w induced ridging aloft in between two upper troughs, one just NW of the ... and notice how the two, actually three ... (ULL in the NW Caribbean) ... and how this is all closing in on the MCV ... and notice the dry air impinging on the MCV from the west. Dynamics are enhancing the convection, but tropical, nah ... look at the visible imagery and notice the typical seabreeze pushing inland from east to west on the East Coast of Mexico in the visible imagery below ...

GOM WV imagery loop

GOM Visible imagery Loop

SF

[Hurricanehink]

Hmm, very interesting. This may just be one of those storms that clearly are storms, but NHC doesn't upgrade. On the other hand, it is looking very well organized from the visible, and on the infered, there is a bit of a turn. You never know with storms these days.

[vbhoutex]

My eyes could be tricking me, but it appears to me that the shear has lessened somewhat to it's East, but as said is also helping to vent this system. Definitely no LLCC at this time, but I won't rule it out in the future YET. The streamlines do concern me because unless I am reading them wrong this system, if it holds together, will come up right to the West of Houston, which tells me we will have a strong feed of moisture and possible copius rains again on already saturated(in most places)ground. Will be watching this one closely for at least the next 24-36 hours!!!!