Absolutely amazing ...

[Stormsfury]

How the OP GFS continues to suffer tremendously from convective feedbacks issues, and contradicts the GFS ensembles ... actually the GFS still manages to retain the 500mb vorticity again, with other models (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET) all continue to maintain a mid/upper feature ... with only the GFS/CMC developing an actual SFC low ... and the CMC only develops that SFC low OVER LAND (near Moblie, AL).

Notice below the 500mb low (circle over the GOM, become an elongated trough reaching deep down into the GOm at 72 hours ... by this time, the MLC (yes, I will call it an MLC) will have already moved over land and with a very small to no opportunity to transition to "warm-core". However, I am NOT saying that a SFC low can't develop out of this, but it'll be due to baroclinic effects should this happen ...









The NOGAPS Ensembles show the same upper low elongate and merge with another trough coming from the west, and covers the Western 1/3 of the GOM ...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/EFS/j ... 00_sd.html

And only ONE or TWO of the CMC ensembles show ANYTHING resembling a potential tropical cyclone out of 16 members ... and the CMC2 is ALMOST ALWAYS overeager (like the GFS with convective feedback issues) to close off ... to take the cake, CMC2 and then merge with the oncoming trough and develop quite the extratropical storm system that would typically be seen in March or April ... discounted solution...

[Stormsfury]

Also, let's nowcast ...

Look at the WV imagery loop ... notice around the MLC and broad area of low pressure near the SFC how the dry air is divergent ... with a dry air punch in the Bay of Campeche, and heading towards the Yucatan Peninsula (and thunderstorms are blowing up in response over the Yucatan), meanwhile look again towards SE TX with stronger westerly winds and also our new trough which will increase the shear already present in a couple of days ...

And climatologically speaking, MOST systems this time of year generally head towards the Western GOM ... climatology speaking.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[senorpepr]

Great look on this system. Thanks for your analysis. It will be tough.

[Stormsfury]

Great look on this system. Thanks for your analysis. It will be tough.

Thanks, senorpepr ...

Also, the EPAC system appears to have a developing ridge over the top of it, which could further disrupt things for the GOM ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Wnghs2007]

God I hate Nov thru July. Shear screws up everything.

[ColdFront77]

It isn't only upper level wind shear that's "the problem," sea surface temperatures are under the 79°F-80°F threshold for potential tropical development.

[Stormcenter]

Great look on this system. Thanks for your analysis. It will be tough.

Thanks, senorpepr ...

Also, the EPAC system appears to have a developing ridge over the top of it, which could further disrupt things for the GOM ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Disrupt things in a good or bad way?

[Stormsfury]

Disrupt things in a good or bad way?

Bad way for the system to develop "tropically" ... over top of the upper level ridge are another maxima of westerlies heading towards the GOM from the SW states/Mexico ... (the HIGH looks like it'll act as a channel for the westerly core of winds at the mid-levels).

However, the system is also connected moisture wise to the deep tropics, which could spell even more moisture is drawn into the disturbance.

SF

[cycloneye]

Great anaylisis SF and let's see how all pans out in the comming hours.I see some chance for the system to develop but it has to do it quickly before things go downhill.But the big threat will be the rain headed to the gulf coast regardeless what kind of system moves to the area.

[Aquawind]

Thanks for the details.. I think you set the record for most detailed graphics in one post..lol

Great Post Stormsfury!