Mobile AFD

[PTPatrick]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE REST OF TODAY...CONCERN IS WITH POTENTIAL OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. AFTER THE MORNING ANALYSIS...WET
MICROBURST POTENTIAL TODAY CAME UP TO BE MODERATE CHANCE
CATEGORY...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WAS MOSTLY DUE TO HIGHER
SURFACE TO FREEZING LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ABOUT 7.4C. MAIN THREAT
WILL BE ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING BRIEF DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS FROM 2 PM THROUGH SUNSET.

AFTER THE MORNING TPC/HPC CONFERENCE CALL...OUR INITIAL 1730Z NDFD
GRIDS HAVE BEEN RE-WORKED A LITTLE AND WILL GO WITH A SLOWER ETA
SOLUTION ON THE NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE BROAD LOW IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF...DEEPENING THE LOW GRADUALLY WITH TIME AND MOVING IT
INLAND ABOUT 36 HOURS WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WILL MAINTAIN A SLOW
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH A BROAD WIND AND
CONVECTIVE FIELD EXTENDING WELL OUT TO THE EAST...WE HAVE BROUGHT
THE WINDS UP IN THE GRIDS ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY (HIGHER THAN THE ETA AND AGAIN SLOWING IT DOWN 12
HOURS OR SO IN ITS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT). THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT
IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND WE MAY EVEN HAVE TO GO HIGHER THAN
THAT EVENTUALLY...TIME WILL TELL BASED ON HOW THE TRACK/
STRENGTH/AND WIND FIELDS PAN OUT. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH QPF. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT QPF
FIELDS FOR THE 4 PM PACKAGE...THINKING IS THAT THEY WILL PROBABLY
HAVE TO GO UP EVEN MORE.

[Stormcenter]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE REST OF TODAY...CONCERN IS WITH POTENTIAL OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. AFTER THE MORNING ANALYSIS...WET
MICROBURST POTENTIAL TODAY CAME UP TO BE MODERATE CHANCE
CATEGORY...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WAS MOSTLY DUE TO HIGHER
SURFACE TO FREEZING LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ABOUT 7.4C. MAIN THREAT
WILL BE ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING BRIEF DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS FROM 2 PM THROUGH SUNSET.

AFTER THE MORNING TPC/HPC CONFERENCE CALL...OUR INITIAL 1730Z NDFD
GRIDS HAVE BEEN RE-WORKED A LITTLE AND WILL GO WITH A SLOWER ETA
SOLUTION ON THE NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE BROAD LOW IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF...DEEPENING THE LOW GRADUALLY WITH TIME AND MOVING IT
INLAND ABOUT 36 HOURS WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WILL MAINTAIN A SLOW
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH A BROAD WIND AND
CONVECTIVE FIELD EXTENDING WELL OUT TO THE EAST...WE HAVE BROUGHT
THE WINDS UP IN THE GRIDS ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY (HIGHER THAN THE ETA AND AGAIN SLOWING IT DOWN 12
HOURS OR SO IN ITS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT). THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT
IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND WE MAY EVEN HAVE TO GO HIGHER THAN
THAT EVENTUALLY...TIME WILL TELL BASED ON HOW THE TRACK/
STRENGTH/AND WIND FIELDS PAN OUT. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH QPF. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT QPF
FIELDS FOR THE 4 PM PACKAGE...THINKING IS THAT THEY WILL PROBABLY
HAVE TO GO UP EVEN MORE.

Thanks for posting. Now rememeber these are professionals stating this information. So they probablity know just as much or a little more than some of us on this board.

[Lindaloo]

What is your point with that statement Stormcenter???