94L INVEST at 49 W 10 N -- CONVECTION......

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
chadtm80

#21 Postby chadtm80 » Tue Jun 15, 2004 2:11 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:FROM THE NHC TWO:
THIS FAVORABLE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED.

What it means exactly?
"FAVORABLE PATTERN EXPECTED TO MOVE WITH THE WAVE WESTWARD"



What they mean is the favorable pattern to produce showers and thunderstorms around the wave are going to follow it. Tropicaly speaking this wave is in to hostile of an enviroment to have any chance until it atleast gets into the western Carribean!


Exactly except the part about the Western carib.. Its not headed there
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
*StOrmsPr*
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 198
Joined: Thu May 01, 2003 7:39 pm
Location: Humacao,Puerto Rico
Contact:
Contact *StOrmsPr*

#22 Postby *StOrmsPr* » Tue Jun 15, 2004 2:15 pm

HURAKAN wrote:FROM THE NHC TWO:
THIS FAVORABLE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED.

What it means exactly?
"FAVORABLE PATTERN EXPECTED TO MOVE WITH THE WAVE WESTWARD"



shear have been decreasing the last 24 hrs. :

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

i think that means the upper patter will allow the tw to sustain a good deal of convection. not saying it will develop but i wouldn't be surprised at all if it does!!
though i may be wrong in my interpretation of this!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148496
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#23 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 15, 2004 2:16 pm

Tu estas bien en tu interpretacion Storms.

You are right in your interpretation Storms.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
*StOrmsPr*
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 198
Joined: Thu May 01, 2003 7:39 pm
Location: Humacao,Puerto Rico
Contact:
Contact *StOrmsPr*

#24 Postby *StOrmsPr* » Tue Jun 15, 2004 2:21 pm

cycloneye wrote:Tu estas bien en tu interpretacion Storms.

You are right in your interpretation Storms.


well i have good teachers at S2K!!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148496
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#25 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 15, 2004 2:26 pm

LOL !! :)
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4305
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

#26 Postby abajan » Tue Jun 15, 2004 3:16 pm

The first batch of showers from this wave started affecting my house about 25 minutes ago.

Judging from the satellite pix, it appears that the heavier stuff will bypass Barbados and affect the islands to our north.

I'm signing off now (don't want to tie up my phone line) and will post more reports later.
0 likes   
Top
GalvestonDuck
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15941
Age: 57
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2002 8:11 am
Location: Galveston, oh Galveston (And yeah, it's a barrier island. Wanna make something of it?)

#27 Postby GalvestonDuck » Tue Jun 15, 2004 3:18 pm

Take care, Abajan! Report back when you can. :)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#28 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 15, 2004 3:19 pm

abajan, in your location information you should also include the Solar System, and the Milky Way. 8-) :)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
The Cape Cod Storm
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 50
Joined: Tue Jun 15, 2004 2:10 pm
Location: Cape Cod, MA

#29 Postby The Cape Cod Storm » Tue Jun 15, 2004 4:36 pm

she'll have to be watched.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4305
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

#30 Postby abajan » Tue Jun 15, 2004 8:20 pm

There was a bit of distant thunder earlier but I haven't had much rain since my last report. Also, (again from looking at the satellite imagery) associated convection seems to have diminished significantly.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4305
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

#31 Postby abajan » Tue Jun 15, 2004 8:23 pm

HURAKAN wrote:abajan, in your location information you should also include the Solar System, and the Milky Way. 8-) :)


Indeed I should.

LOL
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
bevgo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 634
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 12:46 pm
Location: Ocean Springs, MS

Thanks

#32 Postby bevgo » Tue Jun 15, 2004 9:29 pm

Thanks Abajan for your reports from your area. I always forget that there are those of you that are affected from the islands also. Stay safe.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23080
Age: 68
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

#33 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 15, 2004 9:35 pm

It's just a tropical wave now. About 60-70 such waves traverse the tropical Atlantic each season. Less than 10% actually develop into a named storms, and that might be a generous estimate for early season and late season waves. Wind shear appears too high for development for the next few days at least. Perhaps if/when it reaches the central to western Caribbean in 4-6 days there might be a 10% chance of development. Nothing to get excited about. Alex won't form until August, most likely (at least I hope!). :wink:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#34 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 15, 2004 10:02 pm

Is the wave moving westward? Don't worry! because the shear will also move westward! Development? At this point I will say, very slim.

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4305
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

#35 Postby abajan » Wed Jun 16, 2004 5:01 am

From looking at the ground outside I can state with some degree of certainty that there were few (if any) gusty winds and very little rain here overnight. However the sky does look like it will yeild some showers later.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
george_r_1961
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3171
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 9:14 pm
Location: Carbondale, Pennsylvania

#36 Postby george_r_1961 » Wed Jun 16, 2004 1:11 pm

Honestly I dont see any chance for development in the Atlantic basin for several days.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 125 guests