Top 10 worse places in the US if a major hurricane hits

[bevgo]

Evac 60-70% from New Orleans? That would be impossible even if they turned the interstates to one way as planned. I have evacuated twice (or rather evaced my kids) and have experienced the mad traffic. I once drove from the westbank to Slidell - a one hour trip- and it took 7 hours. This was before an evacuation was recomended because I would be required at the hospital for 2 - 3 days and could not keep young children there with no one to watch them. I met family from Mississippi to take them. The other time I finally gave up trying to get my kids out after an evacuation was ordered. It took me 10 hours to get to Slidell and I simply ran out of time. There is NO WAY to evac New Orleans well. Many people will be trapped on low lying interstate between here and the pearl river.

[opera ghost]

I'm trying to imagine how on earth Houston managed to go over NO. Sure we flood. We do- Allison taught us that... but I simply cannot see the damage to the Houston Galveston area by a cat 4 strike being anywhere near as bad as the same storm hitting a state over at NO.

Yeowsers.

[vbhoutex]

I'm trying to imagine how on earth Houston managed to go over NO. Sure we flood. We do- Allison taught us that... but I simply cannot see the damage to the Houston Galveston area by a cat 4 strike being anywhere near as bad as the same storm hitting a state over at NO.

Yeowsers.

The reasoning behind the whole article is INSURANCE INDUSTRY BASED-in other words How much does the insurarnce industry stand to lose in this situation. With Houston a lot larger and more developed than NO infrastructure wise that is what tips the bucket. IMO the whole thing is somewhat misleading, but not totally out of line. Good discussions here considering the slant of the article towards $$$ only and not considering anything else in their rankings.

[kevin]

There is NO WAY to evac New Orleans well. Many people will be trapped on low lying interstate between here and the pearl river.<<

The US military must have a contingency plan for such an event. Helicopters, mobile shelters, etc. I know I'm probably wrong but I find it hard to believe that any country with the capabilities of ours would allow tens of thousands to die. That is unimaginable.

[Lindaloo]

I do know that MS has worked closely with Louisiana to make 1-10 one way, even east bound lanes will be one way. Alot of people wait until the last minute to evacuate and get caught in flooding. Not a good idea for folks to do that should New Orleans require a mandetory evac of the city.

[cycloneye]

Good discussions going with this theme that as David said the link is about $$$$$$ and insurance only and no other considerations.

[bevgo]

Kevin wrote:
The US military must have a contingency plan for such an event. Helicopters, mobile shelters, etc.

The military???? I don't think so. There was a rumor that the National Guard had brought in 20,000 body bags and the Corp of Engineers had planted dynamite on the Mississippi River levee to blow on the Westbank to be able to drop the water level in the city. My source on that rumor was excellent and should have known so I choose to believe it. That was when Georges was headed our way. I think the only plan the military has is for clean-up of bodies after the storm. In other wwords when you live in the Greater New Orleans area you better keep your eyes open and get out if possible. Plan to leave early because when the evac order goes out it is probably too late! Not trying to be an alarmist just calling it as I see it.

[LaPlaceFF]

I know that the Interstate running westward from New Orleans (Kenner to LaPlace) can be made one way if New orleans needs to be evacuated.

[HurricaneGirl]

I disagree with this list. A Cat. 5 looming down on Jacksonville, FL at High Tide would be far more catastrophic than one hitting Biloxi, Mobile or Myrtle Bch. For one Jax. has never experienced one in recent times and secondly the St. Johns River snakes right through much of the city and downtown and the surge flooding would extend all the way down the St. Johns to west of the Daytona Bch. area. Much of the Arlington, Mandarin, San Jose and Orange Park areas which are extremely built out are right along the St. Johns and some half surrounded by the river. Most all of the drainage flows to tributaries which flow into the St. Johns. As a kid I can remember how extensive the street flooding would be in a heavy TStorm, especially at high tide as our street would flood all the way up to our front door. Jacksonville is also a fairly large shipping port which would be impacted. Count in all the new construction toward Sawgrass and northward along the coast toward Fernadina Bch. and the $$$ potential is astronomical!

[NorthGaWeather]

I believe the NO EMA said it would take 72 hrs to evac the town. If a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane is bearing down on NO most people are gonna evac or atleast try to get out. The chances of a direct hit are going up and one day it will happen.

[SupertyphoonTip]

JFK is built on marshes next to the bay and would be easily flooded. I wonder how all them yankees would handle a big hurricane headed their way. At least the folks down in south Louisiana have had lots of practice evacuating. Emagine trying to evacuating NYC? Still would rather ride it out in NYC though at least NYC is ABOVE sea level......MGC

NYC isn't in as much danger of a catastrophic hurricane as eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and Cape Cod. Hurricanes north of 35N usually have their strongest winds to the east of the eye, as was the case with Bob. To put NYC in the right-front quadrant, the hurricane would have to go through New Jersey (at the very least). There is always the possibility of a hurricane hitting the northern Jersey Shore from the southeast, although the chances of this happening are quite slim since most hurricanes at those latitudes have an easterly component to their motion. Still, evacuating the city would be a nightmare, especially considering that the hurricane could be moving at up to 70 MPH like the Great Hurricane of 1938 (a.k.a. the "Long Island Express").

[alicia-w]

The article is talking atrictly about economic impact and the cost to insurance companies. Not talking about actual likelihood of a storm hitting those areas. People should actually read the article before they start to foam at the mouth.

[WeatherNole]

Insurance companies must love Landsea when he throws out hypotheticals like a cat 5 hitting MIA and then going on to NEW!

They're all reaching for Maalox.

As has been pointed out though, the list is all about insurable losses. New Orleans has nowhere near the high-priced development on the coast that a place like Miami, New York, and the Sun Coast of Florida. Just consider the actual number of $500,000+ houses and condos along those coastlines. It's quite a contrast to the Louisiana coast, eh?

If we're talking the worst place to BE during a cat 4 or 5, it might be just to the south of me. Apalachee Bay has the highest storm surge potential (according to the SLOSH model) in the U.S. Luckily, its coastline is sparsely populated (relatively speaking as compared to about 95% of the Gulf and Atlantic coastlines. Apalachee Bay's shallow depth and concave shape would funnel a 30+ ft storm surge into the Big Bend of North Florida were it to be hit by a cat 4 or 5.

Yikes.

Mike

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[caneman]

And I believe just South in the Tampa Bay area would be very bad. In terms of loss of life this would be one of the worst areas. I believe TWC did a special on that and as far as catastrophy regarding human life N.O. and Tampa were #1 and #2. Gets me a little nervous living around this big Bay and shallow waters.

[cycloneye]

And I believe just South in the Tampa Bay area would be very bad. In terms of loss of life this would be one of the worst areas. I believe TWC did a special on that and as far as catastrophy regarding human life N.O. and Tampa were #1 and #2. Gets me a little nervous living around this big Bay and shallow waters.

Oh boy Caneman I didn't know that you are living near a bay.You then have to watch that storm surge there beside the strong winds.

[Trader Ron]

One of my worst fears is a Hurricane "exploding" right before it hits the Keys. If my memory serves me right, many folks have stayed put in recent years, when a Hurricane has gone over the Keys. Once it's in the Gulf,someone else will get whacked.

[caneman]

yeah, Tampa Bay. People here think Elena and Gabrielle were fun. Have to include myself in that but they won't think that if a Cat. 3 or higher comes thru. I know the danger for the area but makes you wonder whether there would be enough time to evacuate. The actually suggest you not evacuate here but shack up with some one in a safe zone. Have seen the maps and this area would be cut up into mini islands from storm surge from Cat. 3, 4 or higher. Kinda scary.

[Steve]

Lots of good points in this thread. The $ value of potentially affected real estate is the MO of the article and why Miami is the main threat. To be sure, there are hundreds of 500k homes in the area, but they don't compare to the beach development in Dade County.

As far as deaths go, 100,000 people dying in New Orleans might actually be a low figure in a catastrophic storm. As noted above, it takes a minimum of 72 hours to evacuate the city (including the poor to last resort shelters). 72 hours out, the NHC isn't anywhere close (300+/- miles). So that's not really an option. One may recall that 72 hours before Hurricane Andrew hit St. Mary Parish, it was only bearing down on South Dade County. You think businesses are going to shut down here because of a threat to Miami? Not even.

Mississippi didn't initially want to work with Louisiana in turning the I-10 and I-59 into one way exits (partially due to their state troopers being only concerned about their own). But the turnarounds have been built now for 2 years. I'd assume in a serious threat, the politicians will organize what they have to. With our city sinking between 1/4-1/2" a year, it's just going to get worse. There are places now where the tops of canal levees are 20' above the ground (Orleans Ave parallel to London Ave. Canal in Lakeview).

The other problem with Louisiana is that the roads get clogged with people coming up from the Bayous. Many of those people almost always have to evacuate (lower St. Bernard, Plaquemines, Jefferson, Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes) for even at Cat 1, and you're talking at least 300,000 people. Another problem with Louisiana is that our soil is primarily silt and not sand, and therefore, doesn't drain as much. Finally, forget whatever maps of the United States you think you've seen. Louisiana doesn't look anything like it has for the past 300 years. If you take any highways to outlying areas (Delacroix, Grand Isle, etc.), the highways and whatever is immediately on either side are often the only dry land there. Coastal erosion has turned bays into the Gulf, rivers into lakes and lakes into bays. They say you can't really appreciate it until you fly over between the Gulf and New Orleans. But it's all water underneath.

Here's a prospective view in 50 years:

http://www.leeric.lsu.edu/educat/lesson ... la_wet.jpg

Here's a decent picture of what things look like today:

http://lagic.lsu.edu/SatelliteTour/begi ... de0001.htm

Steve[/url]

[kevin]

So basically if a cat 4 hits New Orleans , there won't be, or ever again be a New Orleans?

[opera ghost]

Kevin- if it's a direct hit... everything I've seen and read leads me to believe that could very well be the case.