SPC Upgrades to medium Risk for severe outbreak later today!

[Guest]

As i mentioned earlier was a possibility in my S2K US update SPC has now decided to go with a moderate risk for severe weather for Today.

More on this later on.

[michaelwmoss]

That includes me here! Could be interesting!!

I just came from a trip to Minneapolis and it looks like they are going to get hit overnight!!

[wx247]

Quite an extensive area that stands the chance of seeing some big storms. Look out everyone in these areas!

[michaelwmoss]

Looks more and more like it by the minute. The Cape is extremely high, the shear profiles are looking quite good as well.

I think we might see a rarely issued PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch after Noon

[isobar]

Well, the word "Giant" when referring to hail is not encouraging and reminds me of Tokyo in "The Day After Tomorrow". Let's sure hope for nothing larger than nickels.

...UPPER MS VLY SEWD TO THE OH/TN VLYS...
RATHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND GIANT HAIL ACROSS THE MDT RISK
AREA.

[wx247]

*gulp*

What is their definition of giant?

[michaelwmoss]

That is what I would like to know. With the CAPE So High and storms possibly reaching over 60000 ft high, I would look for the possiblity of 3-4 inch hail today (Tennis Ball-Softball Size)

Sounds like Oklahoma don't it

[therock1811]

I hope NOT! I'm right in that moderate risk area! This is a DANGEROUS situation for the OV and Great Lakes region as there COULD be rare overnight severe weather!

[michaelwmoss]

Definately looking more likely. I would venture to see a torando watch from Central Indiana to the watch already effect in Illinois. Probably a Severe T-storm Watch North Of That watch.

[StormCrazyIowan]

We've been in a Tor Watch since this morning, but not a thing has happened in my area... we were under the MOD risk, but now only slight... the cold front is approaching, I'd say for me it's all over but the singing.... when a few supercells have been roaring for hours only about an hour away from here... *sigh* Why do I always have to be broke when these things happen?

[therock1811]

Definately looking more likely. I would venture to see a torando watch from Central Indiana to the watch already effect in Illinois. Probably a Severe T-storm Watch North Of That watch.

You hit the nail on the head! That's EXACTLY what just happened...details:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD
ILLINOIS TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 619...WW 620...WW 621...WW
622...

DISCUSSION...INTENSE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CENTRAL IL WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED ON THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FEEDING IN FROM THE W. WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE 50-60 KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX...SHEAR WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC STORMS WHICH WILL INCLUDE VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 650.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32030.

[michaelwmoss]

And with the Severe Weather Watch too

Those are two HUGE Supercells Approaching From The Northwest! They are classic looking Supercells (Very High in the Atmosphere, Very Large Heavy Rain/Hail Coverage, and A Hook with the Meso)

Hanging on Here!! I will try to keep updates on the weather. I also have an Audioblogger That I will post something if a Severe Storm Gets Close. You can hear acutal audio with that at:

http://indiegospelradio.blogspot.com/