Alex Advisories

[dixiebreeze]

symmetrical at 10 a.m. today. I believe it's beginning to gel.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[Aquawind]

The loop is even better..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[dixiebreeze]

My bet is that we will have Alex before midnight today. And, I think Long Island should stay alert.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good Sunday morning. A very interesting morning as the latest recon fix shows the center repositioned further south closer to the convection. This representing potentially a reformation of the surface low pressure system. As a result, the potential is there for further strengthening with TD#1 before it makes it towards the Carolina coast later today.

As of 8 AM EDT, the center of TD#1 was located near latitude 32.5 north, longitude 79.2 west or about 45 miles east southeast of Charleston, SC. However near aircraft information suggest the center is further south than this over the northern edge of the big blob of convection

Movement is toward the north northwest at near 7 mph. A turn toward the north is expected over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts, mainly in squalls to the east of the center. With the reformation of the center closer to the convection, any reorganization could allow for some slow strengthening to the tropical storm potentially later today. A tropical storm watch remains in effect this morning from Edisto Beach, South Carolina up to Cape Fear, North Carolina. Just upgraded to a tropical storm warning from Cape Fear to Cape Hatteras, NC. Minimum central pressure is 1009 mb or 29.80 inches.

Jim

[The Dark Knight]

It is better Dixiebreeze!!!! Our TD #1 ain't lookin' all that bad. The convection is spreading west and south on the Floridian coastline..... It's prety healthy, I think....

[WXBUFFJIM]

Would not surprise me to see minimal tropical storm strength sustained winds this afternoon given what we're talking about here. Convection is about as well defined as ever with this storm so far. If you watch the visible carefully, it seems like the center has reformed on the north edge of this convective blob. The slow forward motion would allow for further slow strengthening with this system. I think Alex forming later today seems more likely IMO.

Jim

[LAwxrgal]

Is it me or is it really starting to look tropical? Is the center reforming in that batch of convection?

[LAwxrgal]

I agree with WxbuffJim. I think we will have Alex later today.

[dixiebreeze]

Not just you, LAGal, we have a TS on our hands sometime today. Alex lives.

[wx247]

Visible does look impressive. There is quite the thunderstorm area this morning.

[Derecho]

33 kt is *very* close to TS strength.

It isn't if it's Flight level, which it is. Doubtful you'd see TS without 40 kts Flight level.

Pressure really pathetic as well.

[Brent]

Tropical Depression One Advisory Number 4


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 01, 2004



...Depression a little stronger...Tropical Storm Warning issued...
At 11 am EDT...1500z...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from
Cape Fear to Cape Hatteras North Carolina...including the Pamlico
Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect from Edisto Beach South
Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression One was re-located near latitude 31.9 north...longitude
79.2 west or about 80 miles...125 km...southeast of Charleston
South Carolina.

The center of the depression has been meandering over the past
several hours. A slow northward motion is expected later today
with a turn to the north-northeast tomorrow. On this track...the
center of the depression is expected to be very near the South
Carolina coastline later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts...in squalls to the south and east of the center. The
depression has the potential to become a tropical storm during the
next 24 hours.

The minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is
1011 mb...29.85 inches.

Rainfall accumulations of 1-2 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected in association with the depression.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...31.9 N... 79.2 W. Movement
...Stationary. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.

[wx247]

Thanks Brent!!!

Looks like Alex is well on the way.

[Aquawind]

Yeppers..impressive blowup..so close to mainland..nice outflow and awesome inflow from the S-W..across Florida..

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... &itype=vis

[HURAKAN]

It should become a tropical storm later today or tonight.

[Derecho]

Eh, seems early season syndrome has really set in....it's still an incredibly sad looking storm any way you cut it.

Center is elongated and likely a matter of picking a location in the elongated center; I wouldn't read too much into the center being "more south"...and remember, it's still 1011 mb.

[WXBUFFJIM]

The latest on TD #1 shows intensification occurring as well as a reposition of the center of circulation. In addition we have tropical storm warnings now in effect from Cape Fear, NC up to Cape Hatteras, NC meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours or less. A tropical storm watch remains in effect from Cape Fear, NC- Edisto Beach, SC meaning tropical storm force winds are possible within 36 hours.

At 11 AM EDT, Tropical Depression #1 was centered near latitude 31.9 north, longitude 79.2 west or about 80 miles southeast of Charleston, SC. This is a reposition further south and east from the previous position. The depression has been drifiting the past several hours. However a slow northward motion is expected, thus the tropical storm warnings for the North Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Cape atteras. The depression is expected to be near the North Carolina coastt later today into tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts, mainly in squalls to the southeast of the center. The potential is for further strengthening over the next 24 hours. Thus the depression has the potential to become a tropical storm later today. Minimum central pressure is 1011 mb or 29.85 inches.

[The Dark Knight]

I agree.....

[Aquawind]

Looks like a TS landfall still...

000
WTNT21 KNHC 011429
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012004
1500Z SUN AUG 01 2004

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
CAPE FEAR TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO
SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 79.2W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 79.2W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 79.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 33.0N 78.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 34.1N 77.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 35.1N 76.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 46.0N 56.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 79.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[kevin]

What is the normal distance the center is accurate to? 50 miles is a bunch when its only 80 miles from land.