Alex Advisories

[Air Force Met]

Weren't you just on another thread complaining about too many threads and the need to consolidate them instead of starting another thread for every little change?

I think your last two threads could qualify. Physician heal thyself!

[SacrydDreamz]

Expect Alex to strenghten a bit more for the next 24 hours or so, after which southwesterly shear should begin to have it's effect.... that and cooler water.

[Derek Ortt]

Just as a quick note to everyone. The initial position is at 12Z. If ther eis a different position in the update at 11, thats ebcause that position is the 11 a.m. position (15z)

[Thunder44]

I think it's moving more North or NNE looking at this radar...

http://www.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p2 ... kclx.shtml

[SacrydDreamz]

Weren't you just on another thread complaining about too many threads and the need to consolidate them instead of starting another thread for every little change?

I think your last two threads could qualify. Physician heal thyself!

That's the point

[SacrydDreamz]

per NHC.


Tropical Storm ALEX

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000
WTNT41 KNHC 021212
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2004

THIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO UPDATE THE CURRENT AND FORECAST
INTENSITY OF ALEX. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CORE OF ALEX
IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 992 MB AND THE PEAK 850 MB
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 62 KT. THIS IS EQUIVALENT TO ROUGHLY 50 KT
AT THE SURFACE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW BRINGS ALEX TO JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY
THERE...HOWEVER...FOR ALEX TO STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE THAN SHOWN
BELOW AND BECOME A HURRICANE.

ONLY THE 12-HOUR POSITION FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1200Z 31.3N 79.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 32.2N 78.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 33.4N 77.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 35.3N 74.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 37.5N 70.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 43.0N 59.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 06/0600Z 49.0N 44.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW


$$

[yoda]

Nice Write-up as usual. Any chance that this moves more north than east? I know there isn't, but could this be at all a possibilty?

[Stormchaser16]

IR imagery is deceiving, use the radar to plot the movement ATP.

The IR cloud is flaring up then waning a bit, and expanding, so it can be a bit misleading, the system is clearly heading N or NNE now.

[SacrydDreamz]

IR imagery is deceiving, use the radar to plot the movement ATP.

The IR cloud is flaring up then waning a bit, and expanding, so it can be a bit misleading, the system is clearly heading N or NNE now.

Not per recon fixes... which actually show an ESE heading.

[HURAKAN]

After a slow start, this is what we were waiting. Now, Alex is the first wagon of a long train, Bonnie is not far either into the future, not even Charley.

[Stormchaser16]

MMM hmmmm......... it may be drifting a bit E of NE, but look at the radar

[SacrydDreamz]

come 11am for portions of the North Carolina coast.

[Derek Ortt]

Yeah, we are going to be quite busy indeed.

We should have Bonnie, maybe Charley, and top top it all off, Estelle may threaten hawaii (which would be our first priority at nwhhc as we tend to get more visits for Pacific storm threats than Atlantic)

[SacrydDreamz]

MMM hmmmm......... it may be drifting a bit E of NE, but look at the radar

A bit E of NE would be ENE, no?

[Derek Ortt]

Not much chance of this coming too much farther north, unless the trough deepens further

[dixiebreeze]

Note the TWO dark deep convection areas:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

Dixie, had trouble sleeping last nite?

Sure did, Renata Now, however, I'm sorry I didn't get more Zzzzzs. Looks like a very active day ahead of us.

[yoda]

Right Hurakan!

hey Derek... my local NWS AFD from LWX (Sterling) says that:

"BNDRY HAS BECOME HUNG UP OVER CWA...AND NOT XPTCG IT TO MAKE ANYMORE
SWD PROGRESS. IN FACT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS IR IMGRY HAS BEEN
SHOWING SOME NWD MVMT TO CLDS ACROSS SE VA."

Won't this cause Alex to move farther north? Or is there something I am missing here?

[yoda]

if Alex strengthens some more.. yes then HW's will be issued.

[Stormchaser16]

And the point of this whole thread was that you eventually wanted to correct my sense of direction?

[HURAKAN]

This is one of the first visble images take it to ALEX as the system intensifies rapidly over the last few hours. Hurricane Alex by tonight or tomorrow morning.