Bonnie Advisories

Weatherboy1 · #121 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:23 pm

Now that the floater is zoomed in on this thing, we can all get a much better idea for whether it's developing or not. My view is an emphatic "yes." It appears that there is some sort of surface low/LLC spinning at the western edge of the blob of convection that just fired. While I doubt the NHC will upgrade this at 5 p.m., if that convection continues to build, I think they will at 11 p.m. or 5 a.m. tomorrow.

TerryAlly · #122 Postby **TerryAlly** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:30 pm

Looking at a visible loop of this floater, the LLC seems to be travelling 270 degrees (W) and not the 285 degrees (WNW) that the NHC numericals were initiated at.

Appreciate if someone else could have a look and comment.

Terry

#123 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:31 pm

"Bonny" is looking very bodacious!

Nimbus · #124 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:31 pm

That mega-trough that is forecast to recurve all the storms till mid August sure is going to have to dig if it wants to get this storm!

Aquawind · #125 Postby **Aquawind** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:32 pm

The 5am is a logical update after the first visable is available if they don't make a call at 5pm..seems they like waiting for a visable with systems beyond any other factual verification like ship or bouy data..TD @5am in the latest case and a TS is possible..

Website · #126 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:33 pm

They must be concerned. I figured they would leave Floater 2 on the EPAC storm. :eek:

Looks good. 8-)

yoda · #127 Postby **yoda** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:34 pm

12Z GFS developed a MONSTER trough.. but HPC didn't buy it. I forsee a trough, but a light one at best. One that will not affect the path of storms that much.

#128 Postby **wx247** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:34 pm

We sure have a busy schedule, tracking all of the potential developments.

#129 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:38 pm

Weatherboy1 wrote:Now that the floater is zoomed in on this thing, we can all get a much better idea for whether it's developing or not. My view is an emphatic "yes." It appears that there is some sort of surface low/LLC spinning at the western edge of the blob of convection that just fired. While I doubt the NHC will upgrade this at 5 p.m., if that convection continues to build, I think they will at 11 p.m. or 5 a.m. tomorrow.

I see it...it appears to be a pretty small circulation in the cu field. Spinning pretty good too. However, it is unclear (because of the convection) if it is indeed a closed circulation or the very top part of a cusp. Looks more closed though.

Guest · #130 Postby **Guest** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:38 pm

yoda wrote:12Z GFS developed a MONSTER trough.. but HPC didn't buy it. I forsee a trough, but a light one at best. One that will not affect the path of storms that much.

Yoda,

Does this mean that the EC can not expect much "protection" this season?

chadtm80 · #131 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:39 pm

I agree with you like always AFM.. 5pm will be to early to pull the trigger, but if things look good overnight, then 5am will be a different story

frederic79 · #132 Postby **frederic79** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:39 pm

I emailed Todd Spindler/Brian Hughes about the floater and they jumped right on it.
Go NHC!

frederic79 · #133 Postby **frederic79** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:40 pm

I emailed Todd Spindler/Brian Hughes about the floater and they jumped right on it.
Go NHC!

Tip · #134 Postby **Tip** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:41 pm

Don't bet against the European model when it comes to east coast troughs.

yoda · #135 Postby **yoda** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:44 pm

CLTRDU wrote:
yoda wrote:12Z GFS developed a MONSTER trough.. but HPC didn't buy it. I forsee a trough, but a light one at best. One that will not affect the path of storms that much.

Yoda,

Does this mean that the EC can not expect much "protection" this season?

Hehe. No, I meant for this weekend into next weekend..

THE 12Z GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER WITH THE TROF FORMING OVER THE
ERN U.S. DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...AND IN CERTAIN WAYS
RESEMBLES THE ECMWF WITH ITS DEEPER ERN TROF...CLOSED LOW FARTHER
WEST IN THE PACIFIC...AND AN UPPER TROF OVER CNTRL CANADA CRESTING
THE RIDGE ALTHOUGH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF. CONSIDERING THE
DEGREE OF VARIABILITY IN THE RECENT GFS RUNS...AM RELUCTANT AT
THIS POINT TO LEAN TOO FAR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE 12Z GFS.

Website · #136 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:45 pm

Agree about the upgrade. Don't expect it today, but if it keeps organizing, should be a TD in the morning.

yoda · #137 Postby **yoda** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:46 pm

I agree Brent. A TD tomorrow morning we will see.

#138 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:49 pm

chadtm80 wrote:I agree with you like always AFM.. 5pm will be to early to pull the trigger, but if things look good overnight, then 5am will be a different story

Yeah...they'll wait until the early morning vis shots are in. No need in putting out an advisory now when you don't know if it will hold together unless they see something that leads them to know for sure...like a ship report with a 1006mb pressure and a 20 kt west wind. :-)

Another thing I noticed is a mid-level circulation that is catching up with the system from the east...it just passed 12N / 45W a few frames ago. It should overtake the low level system in the next few hours. It will be interesting to see if the system stacks then and gets going. Its arrival has coincided with the latest burst of convection.

Guest · #139 Postby **Guest** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:49 pm

Hehe. No, I meant for this weekend into next weekend..

Tip · #140 Postby **Tip** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:50 pm

As is the often the case, the GFS is just starting to ctch up to the ECMWF.

Bonnie Advisories

LLC at west end of convection?

Re: LLC at west end of convection?

That's twice

That's twice

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