Bonnie Advisories

[Steve H.]

AL91 - Computer Model Output








INTENSITY FORECASTS
Time SHIPS SHIFOR
00 hr 25 kts 25 kts
12 hr 30 kts 29 kts
24 hr 37 kts 34 kts
36 hr 37 kts 40 kts
48 hr 48 kts 46 kts
60 hr 52 kts 49 kts
72 hr 56 kts 52 kts
84 hr 59 kts 54 kts
96 hr 62 kts 57 kts
108 hr 62 kts 55 kts
120 hr 62 kts 57 kts


18Z models CLP5, CLIP, A90E and DSNS all go south of the main islands and into the Caribbean.

[Derek Ortt]

Really cannot call systems early. There is protocol that frowns upon this practice. I dont agree with that protocol, but understand it from a science and confusion point (which is why we wait, often quite impatiently for the upgrad eto be made, as we are currently as this SHOULD be upgraded)

[Guest]

1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 700 NM E OF BARBADOS NEAR
12N47W...ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...MOVING WNW 15 KT. THE LOW HAS A
FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND GOOD OUTFLOW PRIMARILY TO
THE N OF THE SYSTEM. DISORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS ARE NEAR AND TO
THE NW OF THE CENTER WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 47W-51W...AND FARTHER SW ALONG THE ITCZ.
THE AREA BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS
CURRENTLY HAS LOW VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES...GENERALLY BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KTS...AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BEGIN TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS WED NIGHT AND THU.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 22W S OF
19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT...WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR
13N22W. THE WAVE HAS A RELATIVELY DEEP STRUCTURE WITH THE DAKAR
SOUNDING SHOWING IT REACHING FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 500 MB. A
1912Z QSCAT PASS JUST CAUGHT THE WAVE AND SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED S OF THE EASTERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLAND. THE BULK OF THE TSTMS ARE LOCATED SW OF THE LOW ALONG
THE ITCZ...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE APPROACHING
THE ISLANDS OF BOA VISTA...MAIO...AND SANTIAGO.




Does anyone think this will enter the GOM and curve into florida?

[Typhoon_Willie]

And very likely it will be upgraded! I do not think it is a good idea to jump the gun so to speak as there is that possibility of confusion occuring...That would be the last thing we need regarding these systems!

[Valkhorn]

Really cannot call systems early. There is protocol that frowns upon this practice. I dont agree with that protocol, but understand it from a science and confusion point (which is why we wait, often quite impatiently for the upgrad eto be made, as we are currently as this SHOULD be upgraded)

And rightly so. I do feel that this should be upgraded as well (I mean lesser looking cloud formations have been named TS's before, so why not give this one a depression status?)

However they are probably just watching it and being conservative, since they have some time on their hands with this one.

Although, some systems, like Isabel, looked quite healthy well before they were called a depression. So we'll just have to see on this one.

[Bane]

I agree that waiting would be the best course of action.

[yoda]

91 L will curve north toward East Coast. 92 L (wave behind it) will go into Carribean and GOM.

[Stormsfury]

Um .... way, way, way, way, way too early to give any indications.

1) we're dealing with if and WHEN the system develops, if at all (but in this case, I think so within the next 12 hours or so) ... and what kind of synoptic pattern takes shape in the next 5-7 days ...

The ECMWF sorta indicates the overall pattern would be conducive for another recurving system off the Southeast Coast yet again ... (kinda really loses 91L and not the best for developing tropical systems, but excellent on MR pattern recognition and when it catches onto a developing tropical system, it's usually right about it)

I won't even make any guesses on 92L except that development is highly possible within the next day or so.

SF

[corpusbreeze]

The nhc in no hurry because it is not too close to land. I bet thet send a plane Wensday.

[Typhoon_Willie]

shows the Alex winding up pretty nicely!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kltx.shtml

[yoda]

yeah.. but BAMM, BAMD, and UKMET take it toward East Coast, as well as a couple others that I forget.

[Aquawind]

Rains are starting to build and add up inland as well..North Carolina..wet night..Holy Cow that is an impressive partial eyewall!!

IR looks intense..cane like.. 70kts 11pm@least..

[ncweatherwizard]

Really cannot call systems early. There is protocol that frowns upon this practice. I dont agree with that protocol, but understand it from a science and confusion point (which is why we wait, often quite impatiently for the upgrad eto be made, as we are currently as this SHOULD be upgraded)

Completely understood and agreed.

I just absolutely despise the idea of someone having to tell me that this thing is a depression before I can say it is. Figuring that I'm unofficial and independent--thus not very influencial (and this is understood by the readers of the forecasts), I tend to not hesitate to classify if the situation merits.

[rainstorm]

thanks

[Rainband]

Way too early for either system. To predict where they will go if they develop...is like picking the winners on the lotto

[Valkhorn]

yeah.. but BAMM, BAMD, and UKMET take it toward East Coast, as well as a couple others that I forget.

BUT - Models will not really have a firm grasp on this system until it's much better organized. In addition, any threat to the US is a very long way away, and it's simply too early to tell whether it will curve out to sea or go south in the Carribean or even pull a Georges.

The models are only dealing with an invest, and not even an official tropical cyclone yet. Once it makes it to TS status (assuming it makes it) they'll have a better grip I should think.

[Rainband]

I agree Valkhorn

[Derek Ortt]

I agree that this should be upgraded and would like to know either way (if it wasnt for this system, I'd be asleep now, but I wont make a forecaster take 3 systems at once)

[Weatherboy1]

It is likely we'll have some kind of system within a couple hundred miles of PR in about 5 days. I see no reason it couldn't be a hurricane by that point, given the overall environment. It's likely the storm will have started hooking to a NW motion from a WNW motion by that point as well as a large trof is forecast to be along the US East Coast. That would likely drive the Bermuda high to the east. The question in my mind is, will the system be swept up by that trof, or will the trof then lift out again, allowing the high to build back to the west? I'm leaning toward the recurve scenario, but it truly is too early to tell. A lot will depend on how far north the system is in 5 days, how far south the trof digs, etc.

[Renata]

Showers are not holding together. Can't see this being upgraded before Wednesday or Thursday - if it holds together.