Alex Advisories

[HurricaneGirl]

That's a good pic KC.. thanks

[dixiebreeze]

Thank you, Derecho, I'm happy to hear that.

[Stormchaser16]

Definite props go to JB for calling this one. Just a few days ago, there were those calling people people I disagree with for thinking this could be more then a minimal tropical storm. The Gulf stream(yes to answer the question above) combined with improved upper level conditions made for this to become one heck of a storm to look at!

[Wnghs2007]

I have a feeling that if the pressure continues to drop and the eye becomes more visble then it may even make it up to 115 Mph or Major Hurricane Before it begins to incounter higher shear.

[Brent]

Once it passes the Outer Banks, it's gone. No more effects(outside of waves) for the mainland.

[Pebbles]

Drec...do you base tropical conditions only based on winds? I hope not! There is so much more to the tropics...such as storm surge...rain...erosion. All which combines to cause 'damage' I am sorry but going to be kinda forceful on wording this. The people on Hatteras will not be looking at Alex as only 'Tropical storm' conditions...Last night they were only expecting a tropical storm that they were probably only gonna see the edge of! Now they are rideing the eyewall of a pretty good Cat 2 storm..yes the northwest side..but what the NHC still is classifying A CAT 2 HURRICANE... Personally your downgrading harping of this depresses me.

[Stormsfury]

Well, simple ... not ONE of us expected this to become a hurricane in its incipient stage, let alone Cat 2. Second, we all basically had to play catchup ... which lends to the old addage, that intensity forecasts are ALWAYS the hardest to predict ...

Alex is a small compact storm very susceptible to subtle changes either for or against it ... yesterday, when the s/w ridge built over top of the system, it responded very quickly with a strong burst of convection as the NE Shear relaxed ... (however, there was ENHANCED divergence or diffluent flow which aided in the development of the convection) ... As the s/w ridge became more established, convection was able to build and wrap around the center in a much more organized fashion, and we also saw, the vertical profiles begin to match up instead of the chaotic mess just 24 hours previous, with low level swirls exiting out of the NNE side of the storm, and the MLC meandering ...

Yesterday afternoon, and evening, during the diurnal mininum, we saw convection fade out somewhat but still enough to allow Alex to hold its own. As the afternoon wore on, another very strong burst of convection occurred, and again, an enhancement was caused by a small jet streak in the RRQ of the trough which placed diffluent flow right over Alex, and allowed for another round of intensification. Southwesterly winds increased aloft, but also, the cyclone also responded by picking up speed yielding lesser amounts of shear. The small size of Alex allowed for pressures to come down fairly quickly (but not in the classification of rapid), and also the high Heat Potential in the Gulf Stream makes Alex - "the storm that seized the window of opportunity to the fullest" ...

SF

[Wnghs2007]

New Vortex Message......And the Pressure is up 2 Mb. Is it The cape or is the shear and cool waters finally beging to effect alex. By the way. New vortex message below


URNT12 KNHC 031708
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/1708Z
B. 35 DEG 08 MIN N
75 DEG 27 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2834 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 123 DEG 79 KT
G. 030 DEG 016 NM
H. 972 MB
I. 10 C/ 3134 M
J. 19 C/ 3143 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C25
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF966 0801A ALEX OB 32
MAX FL WIND 98 KT SE QUAD 1614Z.

[NC George]

Well, they have been under a tropical storm warning since Sunday at 11 am, and it was upgraded to a hurricane warning last night (Monday) at 5 pm. And 65 mph sustained with gusts barely into hurricane force is in fact typical TS force winds. No doubt Alex is a hurricane with sustained hurricane force winds on the other side of the eye, though.

[GaryOBX]

Code: Select all

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
125 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 2004

.NOW...

...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER
BANKS FROM OCRACOKE TO KILL DEVIL HILLS THROUGH 3:00 PM EDT...

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN RAIN BANDS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS
FROM OCRACOKE TO KILL DEVIL HILLS...AND IN HYDE AND DARE COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND THROUGH 3:00 PM EDT. RAINFALL RATES OF
UP TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE HEAVY RAIN BANDS.

AS THE EYE WALL OF HURRICANE ALEX CROSSES THE OUTER BANKS FROM
OCRACOKE TO RODANTHE...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO
80 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 3:00 PM EDT.  FURTHER INLAND...IN
HYDE AND DARE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND...SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...CONDITIONS SHOULD BEING TO IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS HURRICANE ALEX CONTINUES ITS NORTHEAST MOTION OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC.


[HurricaneGirl]

You're so smart SF!

[Stormsfury]

Read my post on Alex's small size in the "So ... why did Alex catch us offguard" thread for more details ...

SF

[HurricaneGirl]

Stay safe!!

[GaryOBX]

Thanks HG... 3 inches an hour is what we don't need. We're already saturated from recent rains.

I am working in Duck today... our parking lot is flooded due to heavy rains. The winds are picking up and our power is blinking.

At the same time, our island is crammed with tourists who are spending the day "rubbernecking"... so the roads are not only flooding... they're packed.

[ncweatherwizard]

Conditions getting worse up the beach.

Buxton: from a gentleman standing on the beach: "worse it's been so far"
winds 60-70mph rough estimate
Winds ENE
no significant ocean surge

Avon: worse so far
NE winds near hurricane force; stoplights blowing horizontally; no flooding

Trying to get in touch with Hatteras, but having some trouble.

[HurricaneGirl]

Jeez O Petey!!!

[weatherfan]

This is exacley why Hatterace are prone to land falling storms due to the way they stick out.

[soonertwister]

I just read a story where most people on Hatteras weren't even planning to cover their windows.

Nothing like being prepared for 100 mph winds...

[Trader Ron]

The NHC still has a problem forecasting strengthing Hurricanes. I'm not blaming the NHC. Just stating a fact.

[Aquawind]