Bonnie Advisories

[Brent]

I don't see Bonnie at 5pm, mainly because the winds were only 30 at 11am. I do see winds up to 35 at 5, then a TS probably in the morning(unless it blows up or the NHC gets a ship report).

[c5Camille]

yep... but it seems to have expanded...
it looks like it can fill in pretty rapidly...
still very very early.

[tallywx]

18z hurricane models were initialized with a forward speed of 280 degrees at 22 kts. That begins to qualify as roaring. However, all the models except one still expect recurvature. We'll see if this thing undercuts the models, which ragged storms moving quickly in this area have done before (i.e. follow the low-level flow instead).

[c5Camille]

pull out the sweaters!!!

[Stormchaser16]

Im still considering that it is ROARING along at 22KTS. and then a front coming of the coast in about 4 days, this is when it is expected to recurve and this will be the front to watch. Its forward motion and where it should be in 4 days should still allow for it to get taken out to sea, BUT like I mentioned some of the globals want to bring the new HP in fast enough to "capture" Bonnie and possibly loop it back around.......

[Hurricanehink]

I have a feeling that this will fall apart. Look at it right now.... Maybe later on it will get its act together... Still, the storm can just as easily strengthen to major hurricane status. We'll see...

[GalvestonDuck]

I wanna see it hit C. Florida. Why becuase I have been in one small hurrican in 1990 Hurricane Bob, I believe it was and while it was windy, I don't think it was all that nasty. I have been in too many earthquakes, I wanna hurricane, damn it.

BCOWYWF

Agreed!

[Stormchaser16]

I dont think that it will fall apart. There is some dry air in the region, but for a system that is at least somewhat sustainable, the dry air should not kill it. Also there is little shear for some time out ahead of the system. The only thing I would really be concerned about is the forward acceleration of the tropical depression, if it gets into the Caribbean(graveyard of storms) and it is still going this fast, even with favorable upper level conditions it would be possible that the circulation would not be able to sustain itself.

[Matthew5]

The Eastern Caribbean is the hurricane grave yard! It will be hard to form this system if it enters.

[rainstorm]

it seems to be racing faster than 21 mph. and it is getting close to the east carib death zone. unless it can slow down and organize before it gets to 60w, it may lose its circ.

[lilbump3000]

I think it will hold together. If it does die, then like they always do develop once they get in the central to western caribbean.

[Stormchaser16]

But this one may not get to the western carib. , actually it wont get to the western carib., it will curve away before then

[Brent]

Not unless it gets shredded by Hispanola.

[Matthew5]

No I don't think it will fall apart. The reason is that this system is much to organized with very good inflow on the southeastern quad. Convection appears to have fired over the LLCC. I expect a tropical storm with in the next 12 to 24 hours.

[chadtm80]

Rainstorm thinks a storm will fall apart.. Wow, Im shocked.. lol j/k

[Stormchaser16]

LOL

[Valkhorn]

I've been watching the VIS and Infared loops of TD2 for a while now, and I can say it's really been holding itself together well.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

A look at the Visible look shows some neat things. First a LLC isn't obvious, but it is apparent that it exists once one looks a little deeper. Second, it appears to me that this wave is still moving due West, and it has been moving due West for the past day or two.

This does have me concerned since any further movement west would put the forecast track more and more south and more and more west. The trough will be very strong coming through the eastern US in the next few days (maybe even record lows here in a few days!) so if anything has a chance of picking it up, this trough could.

The two major things to look for however are primarily how much TD2 (or perhaps Bonnie by tomorrow) can wind up, and where it does start heading north.

If it makes it too far west when it turns north, it will be shredded by Hispaniola. If it turns early, it could slip through a gap in one of the islands and not be as distroyed. Even if it slams PR it'll be weakened a bit.

I still however think there is the very real chance (however slim) that it could miss the trough completely and keep heading due west. If this is the case it could keep going and hit central America. Yet, to me that's a 5% chance or less, but still possible.

The bottom line - TD2 is a very low latitude storm, so if any system has a chance of missing a trough this is it. It is wierd, in a wierd ironic way though, that a trough THIS STRONG is forecast for the eastern CONUS.

If we have Bonnie, we may be very lucky we have such an unusual trough at an unusual time of the year - and this wierd twist of fate could be our chance to catch our breath from Alex.

What do you guys think?

[rainstorm]

its just moving too fast and it appears to me it is creating its own westerly shear

[Stormchaser16]

EXCELLENT post and i couldnt agree more, i see less then a 5% chance that this keeps heading west.....

[USAwx1]

When the Almighty Rainstorm speaks we all must listen with our FULL attention, for she is the supreme authority on tropical meteorology.