Bonnie Advisories

[Typhoon_Willie]

I seem to recall that rainstorm called for a below normal season last year too!

[Valkhorn]

Now this is a good post. Rainstorm should take some notes!

Thanks! It's an honor to hear that from a professional Met.

While I think Rainstorm has zero bad intentions, I think she just tries to broadbrush everything. If you think something's going to be a fish, why not give reasons why? Besides, with the tropics nothing is 100%.

Even though all the models take this out to sea, there is still the small chance that it could do it's own thing. Just because the chance is small doesn't mean it won't be there.

Personally I think it's more likely to turn and head between Hisp. and PR, or maybe a tad east and hit PR. But I wouldn't be surprised if it went a little further west.

There are so many variables - not the least of which is how strong TD2 will get before it makes the turn. Hopefully we won't have an 800 pound gorilla on our hands in a few days though. If that's the case then truly anything can happen.

But even if there is an 800 pound gorilla, it'll have to deal with the Empire State Building (Hisp. and PR) before it can get back into the Atlantic.

[rainstorm]

Rainstorm this system has good outflow on the eastern quad. It is looking good with the convection firing up near the center. Just watch this thing!

i havent written it off yet, matthew

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl022004forecast.html


not ignoring the guidance, even though I am wary after the butchering with the formation of alex

[Hurricanehink]

That's Alex

[Typhoon_Willie]

1979 Hurricane David did make it across Hispaniola. It did get shredded, but did reclaim a bit strength before hitting Fla...

[HurricaneLover]

Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 2


Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 03, 2004



...Tropical depression heading for the Lesser Antilles...squalls
should begin later tonight...

at 5 PM AST...2100z...the governments with tropical cyclone warning
responsibilities in the Lesser Antilles have issued the following
watches and warnings.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for St Lucia.

A tropical storm watch is now in effect for Guadeloupe...Martinique
...Dominica...St. Maarten...Saba and St. Eustatius.

At 5 PM AST...2100z...a tropical storm watch is in effect for the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Tropical storm conditions are likely to spread over portions of the
Lesser Antilles during the next 24 hours north of St. Lucia.

At 5 PM AST...2100z...the poorly defined center of Tropical
Depression Two was located near latitude 13.6 north...longitude
56.6 west or about 300 miles... 480 km...east of the Windward
Islands.

The depression is moving toward the west near 23 mph...37 km/hr. On
this track the cyclone will be affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression has the potential to become a tropical storm
on Wednesday. An Air Force plane is scheduled to be in the area
early Wednesday.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Repeating the 5 PM AST position...13.6 N... 56.6 W. Movement
toward...west near 23 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 30 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
AST.

[Brent]

IT NEEDS TO SLOW DOWN!!!!!!!!!

Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 2

Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 03, 2004

...Tropical depression heading for the Lesser Antilles...squalls
should begin later tonight...

at 5 PM AST...2100z...the governments with tropical cyclone warning
responsibilities in the Lesser Antilles have issued the following
watches and warnings.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for St Lucia.

A tropical storm watch is now in effect for Guadeloupe...Martinique
...Dominica...St. Maarten...Saba and St. Eustatius.

At 5 PM AST...2100z...a tropical storm watch is in effect for the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Tropical storm conditions are likely to spread over portions of the
Lesser Antilles during the next 24 hours north of St. Lucia.

At 5 PM AST...2100z...the poorly defined center of Tropical
Depression Two was located near latitude 13.6 north...longitude
56.6 west or about 300 miles... 480 km...east of the Windward
Islands.

The depression is moving toward the west near 23 mph...37 km/hr. On
this track the cyclone will be affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression has the potential to become a tropical storm
on Wednesday. An Air Force plane is scheduled to be in the area
early Wednesday.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Repeating the 5 PM AST position...13.6 N... 56.6 W. Movement
toward...west near 23 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 30 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
AST.

[Weatherboy1]

After watching several visible satellite loops, I'm starting to wonder if the center/LLC of TD2 isn't further south, heading due W toward Barbados (roughly where a new burst of strong convection has fired up in the past hour or so -- not closer to the burst further N). Tough to say, which is par for the course with a system that's only starting to develop ... travelling so quickly ... and that hasn't been visited by recon yet. I still am biting on the recurvature scenario, and expect this thing to slow down and hook more WNW or NW as the Atlantic ridge gets beaten back. But the faster this thing moves W before starting that curve, the further west you have to push that forecast track.

[HurricaneLover]

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 2


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 03, 2004



the cloud pattern continues to be very well organized with Plenty of
convection and rainbands. It is still difficult to ascertain if
the system...an especially fast moving one...has a closed
circulation without data from a reconnaissance plane. Sometimes
fast moving systems have a good satellite presentation but lack
surface circulation as indicated by recon data in the past.
Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for gradual
strengthening and the system could become a tropical storm in 24
hour or so. This intensity forecast is highly uncertain since none
of the global models develop the depression...and the GFDL which
made it a hurricane in the 06z run now dissipates it in the 12z
run.

The depression is moving westward or 280 degrees at 20 knots...
steered by the winds south of the subtropical ridge. However...
large scale models forecast a large trough over the western
Atlantic. This trough will erode the subtropical ridge
forcing the cyclone to slow down south of Puerto Rico and turn more
to the northwest and north during the last portion of the forecast.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 03/2100z 13.6n 56.6w 25 kt
12hr VT 04/0600z 14.0n 59.7w 30 kt
24hr VT 04/1800z 15.5n 63.5w 40 kt
36hr VT 05/0600z 16.5n 66.5w 45 kt
48hr VT 05/1800z 18.0n 68.5w 50 kt
72hr VT 06/1800z 21.5n 71.0w 60 kt
96hr VT 07/1800z 26.5n 71.0w 70 kt
120hr VT 08/1800z 31.0n 70.0w 70 kt

[Typhoon_Willie]

Interesting that the further west it goes the further delayed the recurvature!?

[USAwx1]

Weatherboy1--Nice post.

[Valkhorn]

Typhoon,

Good point. Even Georges did survive after it went up the spine of the greater antilles.

We'll just have to wait and see what happens I suppose - but either way it should be interesting.

[rainstorm]

as i said, its moving faster than 21 mph, and i think it has a good chance os losing its circ unless it slows down now

[Brent]

New NHC projected path has it farther west through Friday(crossing Eastern DR) but then farther east beyond that and defintely shows a recurvature.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

[HurricaneLover]

official forecast map:

[Brent]

Still a hurricane in 96 hours.

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 2


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 03, 2004



the cloud pattern continues to be very well organized with Plenty of
convection and rainbands. It is still difficult to ascertain if
the system...an especially fast moving one...has a closed
circulation without data from a reconnaissance plane. Sometimes
fast moving systems have a good satellite presentation but lack
surface circulation as indicated by recon data in the past.
Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for gradual
strengthening and the system could become a tropical storm in 24
hour or so. This intensity forecast is highly uncertain since none
of the global models develop the depression...and the GFDL which
made it a hurricane in the 06z run now dissipates it in the 12z
run.

The depression is moving westward or 280 degrees at 20 knots...
steered by the winds south of the subtropical ridge. However...
large scale models forecast a large trough over the western
Atlantic. This trough will erode the subtropical ridge
forcing the cyclone to slow down south of Puerto Rico and turn more
to the northwest and north during the last portion of the forecast.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 03/2100z 13.6n 56.6w 25 kt
12hr VT 04/0600z 14.0n 59.7w 30 kt
24hr VT 04/1800z 15.5n 63.5w 40 kt
36hr VT 05/0600z 16.5n 66.5w 45 kt
48hr VT 05/1800z 18.0n 68.5w 50 kt
72hr VT 06/1800z 21.5n 71.0w 60 kt
96hr VT 07/1800z 26.5n 71.0w 70 kt
120hr VT 08/1800z 31.0n 70.0w 70 kt

[USAwx1]

Now this is a good post. Rainstorm should take some notes!

Thanks! It's an honor to hear that from a professional Met.

While I think Rainstorm has zero bad intentions, I think she just tries to broadbrush everything. If you think something's going to be a fish, why not give reasons why? Besides, with the tropics nothing is 100%.

Even though all the models take this out to sea, there is still the small chance that it could do it's own thing. Just because the chance is small doesn't mean it won't be there.

Personally I think it's more likely to turn and head between Hisp. and PR, or maybe a tad east and hit PR. But I wouldn't be surprised if it went a little further west.

There are so many variables - not the least of which is how strong TD2 will get before it makes the turn. Hopefully we won't have an 800 pound gorilla on our hands in a few days though. If that's the case then truly anything can happen.

But even if there is an 800 pound gorilla, it'll have to deal with the Empire State Building (Hisp. and PR) before it can get back into the Atlantic.

Nothing is EVER 100% in the wx business until it has already happened.

Rainstorm likes to subtly entice others into confrontational situations by deliberately disagreeing with them (which would be fine) but provides no facts to back up her thoughts about a situation.

[ncweatherwizard]

This is the correct address.

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl022004forecast.html

[Matthew5]

Alex is moving 17 mph in its looking great!