rainstorm wrote:
i think you are forgetting this is a message board. have fun!!
And BTW...to each his own. How do you know that making fun of bad wannabe forecasters is not my idea of having fun?

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Hyperstorm wrote:lilbump3000 wrote:I still say they are turning this system way to early. You can clearly see that this system is basicly moveing due west. But only time will tell.
BINGO! The system is still moving west, because IMO the system isn't well-stacked and doesn't appear to have a well-defined LLC to be pulled northward by UL winds. I'm afraid that if it stays rather weak as it is, it will continue further west and possibly blow away all forecasts making it to the W. Caribbean as a tropical wave.
ColdFront77 wrote:Remember: This does not mean this system is going to move out to sea.
1.) It is a forecast model, same goes, of course with those models that have multiple tracks.
2.) There have been plenty of features that take a WNW, NNW and N turn than turn back toward the west moving at least closer to the Caribbean and/or U.S. east coast.
Well this should change all the prognostications. Curious to see the next model mpaslilbump3000 wrote:000
WTNT32 KNHC 032344
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST TUE AUG 03 2004
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...HEAVY SQUALLS WILL AFFECT THE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST LUCIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE
...DOMINICA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS NORTH OF ST. LUCIA.
AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
57.3 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES... 230 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS IN
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE CENTER
MAY BE TRYING TO REFORM FARTHER SOUTH.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...13.5 N... 57.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 11 PM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
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