Thoughts on Carribean wave...

[MGC]

Just as I had feared, there is no low level circulation. I guess we will have to wait until the wave reaches the central to western Carb Sea before any thing developes. I am still not sold on this system being picked up by the trough. I still think the models are digging the trough too far south for August. I think the models will keep shifting the potential track westward as the wave shows little intention of slowing....MGC

[WXBUFFJIM]

It's simply gotta slow down, but it's not doing that, which is a good thing for the Lesser Antillies and potentially even Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. It's still possible given the fast westerly track that this thing tracks west through the Caribbean as a tropical wave before slowing down. If this thing were to slow down, maybe a more northwest track with a possible low level center can develop. But I'm thinking the west track sounds more appropriate right now with a tropical wave.

To be truthful I can't keep my eyes out of Alex, that thing looks so symmetric with the CDO surrounding the eye. But with cooler waters upstream, weakening is likely with this.

Jim

[Dave C]

Check out upper-winds for Friday thread, Looks a "bit hostile" except near extreme west Gulf area.

[CajunMama]

Is there anything that can or will slow the wave down?

[Guest]

AAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!, dunno!

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