Bonnie Advisories

[BayouVenteux]

The tropics are never a done deal.

Truer words were never posted, 247.

[Nimbus]

This looks like it will develop into a strong storm with a deep layer ridge building over it. The NHC will probably go with the Deep Layer BAM. As high pressure builds over a strong storm fronts have less effect on steering. Tonight the BAMD has a short track out into the middle of the western gulf with a little jog to the south at the end of the track. The little jog to the south would occur if the front bypasses the storm and leaves it without steering currents.

[WXBUFFJIM]

It's definitely been a concern I have been looking at since Friday afternoon when this possibility first started coming into play. With a developing anticyclone aloft over a system like this combined with 88-90 degree waters, that's a recipe for big trouble and folks all along the gulf coast from northern Mexico through Florida need to really watch this carefully.

Jim

[Brent]

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CONSIST OF AN AREA OF
CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

[Stormcenter]

The tropics are never a done deal.

Almost a "done deal" my fellow poster. Ex-TD2 is possibly about to come back from the dead.

[Aquawind]

The tropics are never a done deal.

Truer words were never posted, 247.

Well said..

Everybody even collectively on occasion eats crow..

[Stormcenter]

Jumping the gun a little too early here, give it TIME, right now there is no surface circulation.... just give it time

The time time seems to be now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Stormcenter]

Here's some proof Bonnie MAY be forming as we speak.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[LAwxrgal]

Hmm, I don't know...I'm not very impressed with it. Looks sheared on top. But the Gulf is bathwater, so anything can pop in it.

[Stormcenter]

Hmm, I don't know...I'm not very impressed with it. Looks sheared on top. But the Gulf is bathwater, so anything can pop in it.

JB thinks it's developing not that means it will but he is
met so I believe him.

[Anonymous]

Will we be singing this soon??

My Bonnie lives in the ocean....
My Bonnie lives in the sea...

[cycloneye]

This is from the 2:05 PM EDT discussion.

A 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 120 NM NNW OF CANCUN MEXICO...
MOVING NW ABOUT 10-15 KT INTO THE S/CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW HAS A SMALL BUT ELONGATED
CIRCULATION EXTENDING FROM THE N YUCATAN COAST NEWD TO 25N87W.
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED PRIMARILY TO THE S OF THE LOW CENTER
TOWARDS THE YUCATAN COAST BUT A SECOND CLUSTER TO THE N IS
PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE PROPAGATING SWIFTLY NWD.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24.5N BETWEEN 86W-90W.
RADAR IMAGERY FROM CANCUN HAS SHOWED A SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED
CIRCULATION TRAVELING JUST N OF THE YUCATAN COAST WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL SKIRTING JUST INLAND FROM CANCUN TO TIZIMIN...SPREADING
W TO NEAR MERIDA. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED
OVER THE W/CNTRL GULF JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO
THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY
SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.

[cycloneye]

http://net-waves.com/weather/model.php

The models start this run at 30 kts so at least the models initialize it in a 35 mph range but recon is still there making observatons so let's wait for them to report back and see if they find a closed circulation.

[SouthernWx]

Hi Luis!
I'm almost certain there is a closed circulation....both from the visible images, and from recon reports of 220°-32 kts and 280°-17 kts (SE and S of the circulation center respectively).

[Brent]

http://net-waves.com/weather/model.php

The models start this run at 30 kts so at least the models initialize it in a 35 mph range but recon is still there making observatons so let's wait for them to report back and see if they find a closed circulation.

Numerous reports of west wind from recon. It's a done deal. TD 2 is back.

[Thunder44]

Ships take it up to 70kts or 80mph hurricane at 72 hours.

[lilbump3000]

I will have to see that to believe it.

[Brent]

Ships take it up to 70kts or 80mph hurricane at 72 hours.

Hope DT doesn't see this, LOL

Seriously, I don't believe that. What is the track of it on there, around in circles?

[vbhoutex]

Hi Luis!
I'm almost certain there is a closed circulation....both from the visible images, and from recon reports of 220°-32 kts and 280°-17 kts (SE and S of the circulation center respectively).

WELCOME BACK PERRY!! I look forward to your considerable store of knowledge helping us figure this all out!!!

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like DT needs some crow .