Bonnie Advisories

[Brent]

There goes my vacation in SC next week, lets hope she moves fast!

Mike~

Bonnie should be moving very quickly 15-20 mph, and because it's small, it shouldn't last long.

[Dean4Storms]

Folks I can't ever remember seeing an eye on a 50 mph developing TS on IR imagery...........

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[vbhoutex]

It is indeed very unusual for a small TS such as Bonnie to have a 10 mile wide eye as reported by reconnaisance this morning.

[Thunder44]

How can you tell it's the eye? I rather look at visible sat images.

[Dean4Storms]

How can you tell it's the eye? I rather look at visible sat images.

It is the little spot in the middle of the deep red. You can't look at it in visible and see it untill the sun is up well enough. I too like to see it on visible, but even so, just seeing it on IR is strange indeed at this point in this storm.

[Dean4Storms]

Use the zoom button and then click over the storm a couple of times, you'll see it.

[Thunder44]

I saw the little warmer spot in deep convection, but I'm not convinced that was the eye. On the latest image, it's not there anymore.

[Hyperstorm]

Exactly! The "warm spot" is not there anymore, but a 10NM wide eye is ENOUGH. With that eye there, I wouldn't be surprised to see MAJOR intensification as soon as it hits the center of the UL high in the NW Gulf. This can be very similar to what Iris went through in 2001 in the Caribbean. Cyclones of this size tend to have higher pressures than what the winds show, so don't be surprised to see this becoming a hurricane when the pressure drops to the 990's.

These small cyclones can be a pain in the neck.......LITERALLY.

[Hyperstorm]

The latest information regarding Bonnie shows another drop in pressure this morning.......1003mb.

000
URNT12 KNHC 101111
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/1111Z
B. 23 DEG 53 MIN N
90 DEG 23 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1459 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 349 DEG 37 KT
G. 263 DEG 008 NM
H. 1003 MB
I. 18 C/ 1529 M
J. 25 C/ 1532 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1235/8
O. 0.5/3.0 NM
P. AF963 0402A BONNIE OB 21
MAX FL WIND 49 KT NE QUAD 0723Z.

Please post the rest of the day's vortex messages in this thread.

[Dean4Storms]

I saw the little warmer spot in deep convection, but I'm not convinced that was the eye. On the latest image, it's not there anymore.

Exactly, that warmer spot is it, center is always warmer. The reason why it disappears is the Northerly shear, you will likely only see it temporarily as convection wanes and just as it begins to refire then the strong convection's cirrus blows back over it.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I will pose this simple question for which I do not know the answer. Will someone please answer the question why is this storm so small? Is it because of the dry air in the Western Gulf? This is my only hypothesis. Will it grow? I find it rather interesting, as well, that this tiny storm also has been displaying an eye with winds of only 50mph. I'm quite confident this is in relation to the size of the storm that we are seeing an eye. I'll be curious to see answers and reasons....

[Dean4Storms]

She is concerning me alot this AM. Between the better looking representaion on IR and now the deepening pressure, then you throw in the fact that she is moving a little more westward over those warm SST's means she'll only spend a little more time over them before she rockets NE.

[Hyperstorm]

She is concerning me alot this AM. Between the better looking representaion on IR and now the deepening pressure, then you throw in the fact that she is moving a little more westward over those warm SST's means she'll only spend a little more time over them before she rockets NE.

Yeah, this is a serious situation. It's not something to be alarmed about, but something to be on guard. This system as it is with a pressure of 1003mbs, is poised to become quite strong if conditions become better for its development. It's still experiencing some northerly shear, but it has managed to deepen....Imagine it with perfect outflow.....Hmmm....

This system might have been underestimated by some.....

[HurricaneGirl]

[Hyperstorm]

Bonnie has been a rather small system since it was a wave, however, you're right, it has become much smaller as a tropical cyclone.

The system was ALMOST destroyed by TREMENDOUS shear from the SW in the Caribbean. It was a relatively small wave, but became smaller because of the intense shear it went through, which stole most of the convection associated with it.

If you remember a few days ago when the system was near Jamaica, the system was almost non-existant because it was abused by the shear, taking all thunderstorms away from it. So, the little that was left from the system when the shear went away survived and became what we now know as Bonnie.

This is similar to why Andrew was a small hurricane. Andrew was almost killed by the shear, thus leaving very little cloudmass to work with.

[HurricaneGirl]

How could it be an eye if it's not a hurricane yet?

[Stormcenter]

Now I know Bonnie supposed to eventually turn north and then NE but after looking at this morning satellite not only is she still moving on a more westerly but at what looks like a quicker speed. I would be concerned if I live from SE La. to the AL. border. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Brent]

I'm concerned as well. The NHC track right now puts me on the dry side(AKA NW side), but if it goes in in SE LA or MS, I'll be on the East side of the circulation, and with the fast motion, it will still pack a punch when it gets up here.

[ncweatherwizard]

Nothing much to Bonnie...50kt storm at landfall. It may get a tad stronger, but it would have to intensify very soon; I'm more lenient toward the storm being 50kts greatest at landfall. Will be briefly rough conditions somewhere along the coast Thursday, but do mind this is a really small storm.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... onnie.html

[adelphi_sky]

Use the zoom button and then click over the storm a couple of times, you'll see it.

Ugh! You mean to tell me all this time I was looking at these loops and I could've zoomed in? I like this board already. I learned something new. Even though the zoom button was there all along.