Charley Advisories

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Derek Ortt

#481 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 10, 2004 4:50 pm

the ODT has been quite accurate with these two systems these past few days
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Rainband

#482 Postby Rainband » Tue Aug 10, 2004 4:53 pm

Derek what are your thoughts will this track verify??
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cycloneye
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New Vortex Message from Charley

#483 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:05 pm

000
URNT12 KNHC 102122
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/2122Z
B. 15 DEG 16 MIN N
70 DEG 58 MIN W
C. NA
D. 35 KT
E. 140 DEG 020 NM
F. 189 DEG 40 KT
G. 142 DEG 014 NM
H. EXTRAP 999 MB
I. 25 C/ 332 M
J. 25 C/ 326 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 /01
O. .1/2 NM
P. AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 20
MAX FL WIND 40 KT SE QUAD 2117Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.


No change in pressure data from previous message.
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Very deep convective burst in Charley

#484 Postby frederic79 » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:06 pm

occuring in what looks to be the center of Charlie. Could be the start of something big.
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rainstorm

#485 Postby rainstorm » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:07 pm

great forecast. if it crosses eastern cuba or hispaniola it could be ripped apart
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#486 Postby Aquawind » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:08 pm

999... Still getting it's act together.. 8-)
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Derek Ortt

#487 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:11 pm

of note is that it has resumed a more westerly track, though this is transient. May lessen the threat to Miami though and residents of the Panhandle should not take their eyes off of this yet
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kevin

#488 Postby kevin » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:11 pm

Last image (21:45 UTC) of Charley looks pretty nice. Reds and a smudge of brown. We'll have to wait for some later fixes to see if pressure fuels convection fuels lower pressure, takes place. If so, sweet deal.
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#489 Postby goodlife » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:12 pm

Bonnie looks like crap, but Charley looks pretty good...(of course, I'm speaking aesthetically, since I know next to nothing about meteorology...:)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
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Derek Ortt

#490 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:12 pm

which track?
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#491 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:15 pm

Image
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#492 Postby goodlife » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:17 pm

so what does that mean, huh??? :)
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#493 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:20 pm

Ye old RED eye, ARRRR maties shes looking mean :lol:
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#494 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:20 pm

It means Charley is INTENSIFYING. Expect a substanial increase in winds tonight. :eek:
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#495 Postby bahamaswx » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:25 pm

Charley isn't a 'she' :D
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#496 Postby Pileus » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:26 pm

Outflow improving south quad because SA is less a factor. More symetrical
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kevin

#497 Postby kevin » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:31 pm

22:15, reds expand, brown spot shrinks. Looking good still. =) Much better looking than an hour and a half ago...
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#498 Postby tallywx » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:33 pm

Recon. just found flight level winds of 72 knots in Charley in his NE quadrant. See below:

URNT14 KNHC 102158
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01142 10699 10009 12623 14031
02144 20701 20009 22623 14039
03145 30703 30008 32523 15037
04147 40705 40007 42523 16037
05149 50707 50006 52423 17030
06151 60708 60004 62423 20036
MF151 M0708 MF040
OBS 01 AT 2057Z
OBS 06 AT 2117Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 13025
01155 10708 10005 12323 12060
02156 20706 20008 22322 11046
03158 30704 30009 32321 12039
04160 40702 40009 42521 11032
05162 50701 50010 52521 12026
06163 60699 60010 62422 11021
07165 70697 70010 72422 12023
MF154 M0709 MF072
OBS 01 AT 2127Z
OBS 07 AT 2153Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 10025
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 22
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#499 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:36 pm

*faints*

72 knots???? Is that right??? :eek: :eek: :eek:
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Rainband

#500 Postby Rainband » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:37 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:which track?
The nhc track
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