Charley Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
I've been looking at numerous model runs this morning and we could get absolutely soaked Thursday night into Friday from DC and Baltimore north and west. But that's just part 1 and I'm looking at 2-4 inches of rain with that event with locally higher amounts to our west where orographic lift enhances the rainfall from Bonnie. That's just part 1.
Part 2 comes in Saturday night into Sunday according to the latest guidance with Charley, which could be just as bad as it's predecessor Bonnie with amounts of 2-5" possible. That means we could potentially see rain totals between now and Sunday of 4-9 inches with locally higher amounts. This does not include the storms of this afternoon by the way. A very interesting forecast and we need to monitor this potentially dangerous situation, especially over the mountains just west of DC and Baltimore where significant flash flooding is a possibility.
Jim Schuyler
Part 2 comes in Saturday night into Sunday according to the latest guidance with Charley, which could be just as bad as it's predecessor Bonnie with amounts of 2-5" possible. That means we could potentially see rain totals between now and Sunday of 4-9 inches with locally higher amounts. This does not include the storms of this afternoon by the way. A very interesting forecast and we need to monitor this potentially dangerous situation, especially over the mountains just west of DC and Baltimore where significant flash flooding is a possibility.
Jim Schuyler
0 likes
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 14
- Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 3:10 pm
- Location: Norfolk, Virginia
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10146
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Could Charlie miss fla to the east...
If Charlie slows could it make the turn and skirt east of
Florida peninsula. Local meteorologist suggested it
may be a possibility??
Florida peninsula. Local meteorologist suggested it
may be a possibility??
0 likes
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 14
- Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 3:10 pm
- Location: Norfolk, Virginia
- The Dark Knight
- Category 3
- Posts: 800
- Joined: Fri Jun 18, 2004 11:18 am
- Location: Mashpee, Cape Cod, MA
- Contact:
yet
Yet Florida, being the skinny peninsula that it is, it really wouldn't take much of a jog at all for it to change the angle and come in further east. Remember Irene? Everyone was screaming Tampa until they became hoarse.
0 likes
- Three Blind Mice
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 202
- Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2004 9:28 am
- Location: Wrightsville Beach, NC
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145332
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
8 am Charley=Hurricane watches may be issued for Fla Penn
Tropical Storm Charley Intermediate Advisory Number 8a
Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on August 11, 2004
...Charley approaching Jamaica...hurricane hunter plane should be in
the center shortly...
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
Jamaica.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A
Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from Dry
Tortugas to Craig Key. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours. Additional watches will likely be required for
portions of the Florida peninsula later today.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the entire southwest
peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic border westward
including Port-au-Prince.
Tropical storm and/or hurricane warnings will be required for
portions of Cuba later today.
At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Charley was
located near latitude 16.9 north...longitude 75.4 west or about
115 miles... 185 km...southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
Charley is moving toward the west-northwest near 24 mph
...39 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours...followed by a turn to the northwest.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Charley could become a hurricane during the next day or
so.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
...185 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches.
Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous battering
waves...are likely along the coasts of Jamaica today...and the
Cayman Islands tonight.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are likely in association with
Charley.
Repeating the 8 am EDT position...16.9 N... 75.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 24 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 999 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
Later today hurricane watches will be required for the Floridas west coast.All those who live in the west coast of Florida begin preparations today and dont leave them to the last minute.
Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on August 11, 2004
...Charley approaching Jamaica...hurricane hunter plane should be in
the center shortly...
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
Jamaica.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A
Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from Dry
Tortugas to Craig Key. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours. Additional watches will likely be required for
portions of the Florida peninsula later today.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the entire southwest
peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic border westward
including Port-au-Prince.
Tropical storm and/or hurricane warnings will be required for
portions of Cuba later today.
At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Charley was
located near latitude 16.9 north...longitude 75.4 west or about
115 miles... 185 km...southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
Charley is moving toward the west-northwest near 24 mph
...39 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours...followed by a turn to the northwest.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Charley could become a hurricane during the next day or
so.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
...185 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches.
Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous battering
waves...are likely along the coasts of Jamaica today...and the
Cayman Islands tonight.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are likely in association with
Charley.
Repeating the 8 am EDT position...16.9 N... 75.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 24 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 999 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
Later today hurricane watches will be required for the Floridas west coast.All those who live in the west coast of Florida begin preparations today and dont leave them to the last minute.
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Aug 11, 2004 7:26 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 7183
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
- Contact:
Re: Could Charlie miss fla to the east...
Blown_away wrote:If Charlie slows could it make the turn and skirt east of
Florida peninsula. Local meteorologist suggested it
may be a possibility??
Here we go again with local media. Who said it could miss to the east? Name and station please?
0 likes
- Three Blind Mice
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 202
- Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2004 9:28 am
- Location: Wrightsville Beach, NC
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38090
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
The NHC DOES say at 8am that additional watches may be required later today:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM DRY
TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
It doesn't say west or east though, my guess is both.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM DRY
TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
It doesn't say west or east though, my guess is both.
0 likes
#neversummer
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests