New thoughts.... 12z GFS shows same & further W than

[Guest]

FOLKS

then GFS is in..... and we can see that the GFS is again further west than Hurricane center and is alos VERY consistent... The Large x here SOUTH Of Cuba on these 850 Mb Vort max is Charley...

The X over Appalachola on the 24 hr map is Bionnie



Over western end Cuba



100 -150 Miles off SW FL at it turns N then NNE


right thru Tampa Orlando


then up by JAX and into DT land at 84 hrs...

[Weatherboy1]

Just a quick question -- in another thread, I though you said that the more S position of Charley and the earlier tropical model runs led you to believe this would eventually landfall further to the W, like up in the Panhandle of FL. Does this latest GFS run change your thinking? And correct me if I'm wrong, but won't the 18 UTC tropicals be run off this, suggesting they will turn BACK to the E?

As an aside, Charley looks to be slowing down and his pressure is down a couple of millibars. If this track holds, the system will avoid Jamaica and in my opinion, could end up getting stronger than forecast. We'll see.

[MWatkins]

DT...doesn't it looks like both vort-maxes are underrepresented in the model?

MW

[HurricaneQueen]

Assuming that pans out, it's a very ugly scenario for all of SW Fl. Looks as if Charley is hugging the coast all the way up the until actual "landfall? Could present all kinds of flooding and storm surge problems. Uggg (that's an official meteorlogical term, right guys??)

Lynn

[vbhoutex]

Uggg (that's an official meteorlogical term, right guys??)

Lynn we usually use AAAAARRRRGGGGHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!

[Steve H.]

So DT, you sayin' that this comes in near Tampa St-Pete and exits near JAX??? So the GFS is the model of choice then??

[RichG]

DT- It doesn't look that much further west then NHC. If it all.

[HurricaneQueen]

LOL, VB,
Thant's an awfully long word for a blonde!!!! But I'll try to remember-hope I don't spell it wrong.