Soooo...nobody bothered to check the ECMWF Charley init?

[Derecho]

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest


That initial position is about 1.5-2 degrees N of actual the recon position at 12Z.

Charley began too far south in the EC.....does end up affecting the final track.

[Stormsfury]

Already saw this earlier and also initialized at a 1010mb low ...

[Derecho]

Oh, the init pressure doesn't matter; global models have great difficulty depicting real pressures for a variety of reasons. It's not a big deal if a global doesn't have the real initial pressure of a system.

Also, there's no "bogussing" in of TCs in the EC, I believe.

[LaBreeze]

Question - In what way does it affect the final path?

[Stormsfury]

Oh, the init pressure doesn't matter; global models have great difficulty depicting real pressures for a variety of reasons. It's not a big deal if a global doesn't have the real initial pressure of a system.

Also, there's no "bogussing" in of TCs in the EC, I believe.

What I think really matters on the 12z run, and it appears that Bonnie's exiting s/w ridge is pushing north winds aloft (which has aided in the fueling of that small ULL in the W CARIB) or the trough is depicting SOME northerly shear on Charley ... and

Extrapolation of the 24 hour plots on the ECMWF take Charley across a portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, and thusly weakens the system while over land .. (again, due to your original findings ...)

That initial position is about 1.5-2 degrees N of actual the recon position at 12Z.

Charley began too far south in the EC.....does end up affecting the final track.

[Guest]

I dont think you are correct at all...
Der IF the Euro was too far North at its Intial polt then the track would be further north for Charley....

WRIGHT WEATHER ECWMF shows at 12z charley at 15.5 N and 75 W... but at 12z the offfical plot was 16.5

IOW the euro was too far south hence a further North track

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=camer&mo=ecmwf&le=sfc&va=slp&in=.5&pl=ln&ft=h00&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=&le=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest


That initial position is about 1.5-2 degrees N of actual the recon position at 12Z.

Charley began too far south in the EC.....does end up affecting the final track.