Historical Map

[PTPatrick]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... climo.html

that is sort of interesting...this map shows the storms that have been on the same path as charler at this date. Seems that climatology would hold for a texas hit(since it is clearly not taking the track of the the storm that is going east of FL). Obviously this is oversimplification and any storm can do anything, but climatology does often tell the tale. Guess we will have to wait and see.

[LaBreeze]

So many other factors to consider as well - such as the front coming on in. Looks like Charley is Florida-bound. Interesting map though.

[donsutherland1]

PTPatrick,

That map seems to leave out a number of storms. For example, Tony-Sacrus (a meteorologist at another message board) pointed out the following storm:

<img src="http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1896/4/track.gif">

With the deep trough, I fully expect that Charley will get picked up. Moreover, Charley has exhibited more of a northwestward track in recent hours:

8 pm EDT: 17.2N 78.2W
11 pm EDT: 17.8N 78.7W

Overall, I place low odds on a track to Texas. I believe the most likely area for landfall will likely be north of Tampa and probably the Panhandle or just east of it.

For now, I believe a compromise between the GFDL and GFS tracks probably provide a reasonable track for Charley.

[PTPatrick]

you are right in that the map I posted has a limitation. It only includes storms on THIS date that were in that area. The reality is that the pattern is more like a septembe october pattern, so I would actually agree with you on the Florida hit being most likely. I certainly think a landfall north of Tampa(actaully strikingly similar to the map you just posted) is the most likely, I was just pointing out with the historical map, that for this time of year, it would be a bit of an anomoly, AND that until the forecasted turn occurs, folks along the whole gulf coast should stay tuned.

[HURAKAN]

We have to remember that although we are in August but the weather patterns are looking like if we were in late September or early October. What is happening this year is pretty unusual. Tropical systems in August are not suppost to be pick-up by troughs.

[sponger]

Good point! 2 solid cold fronts in August!

[KBBOCA]

Wow, that track for the 1896 storm does look like it could be very similar to what we might get from Charley.

What was the intensity of the 1896 storm? I don't see a legend, but the color progression suggests it was Cat 3 or higher?! Let's certainly pray that Charley doesn't follow the 1896 storm in that regard.

[KBBOCA]

Ah, was able to answer my own question. The 1896 storm above was a Cat. 3:

Hurricane #4 (22-30 SEP)
Storm - Max Winds: 105 Min Pres: 992 Category: 3

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

Gotta love the web

Hope Charley stays a Cat 1.

Major hurricanes are beautiful to watch form when they stay out to sea. When we're talking about landfall in a major population center that hasn't had a serious storm for decades, I'd be very happy to see Charley fall apart!

[bahamaswx]

What the hell type of 992mb hurricane supports 105kt winds?