Charley Advisories

[Aquawind]

Dang.. Charley means business..

[drudd1]

I was just thinking the same thing!

[Anonymous]

Just a thought...

How is Charlie suppose to start turning NW immediately (according to the NHC tracK) with that ULL parked to its west and not moving much?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 0258W5.gif

[bahamaswx]

He is strengthening, but due to the ULL's unfavorable proximity and location, it's definitely not helping him strengthen any faster. The ULL is restricting outflow on the western side, not enhancing it.

[Anonymous]

Yea true on the proximity, I didnt take that into account.

[southerngale]

Good question Houstoner. I'm not really sure exactly what it means as far as direction goes with an ULL to the west of Charley. Stormcenter mentioned in another thread that it could follow it.

Maybe someone can explain it...

[Matthew5]

Where is the clear eye?

[Anonymous]

The ULL needs to get the heck out the way so the trough can catch it (Dont want it coming to Texas as a Cat 4 like the EMCFW says)!

[Wnghs2007]

GO AWAY TROUGH, STAY ULL. Make me right. LOL.

[Anonymous]

No Joke Houstoner!!!
I cannot stand the thought of it even coming close to Texas. I like the comforts of home without mess, tree limbs, blown off roofs, electricity, phone, water, internet, and lets not forget A.C.!! I spent a week without electric after Claudette last year and let me tell you it was AFRICA HOT!! Don't want to do that again anytime soon. I do feel for those folks in Florida I really do!!

[Aquawind]

NHC tracK) with that ULL parked to its west and not moving much?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 0258W5.gif

[/quote]

Looking at this Water Vapor Loop you can see the ULL is moving westward slowly..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It's suppose to happen within 24 hours..nothing imeadiate required..so far NHC has done well..

A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

From the 5pm Discussion..

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

THE LAST RECON MISSION FOUND 80 KT AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WHICH
SUPPORTED THE UPGRADE OF CHARLEY TO A HURRICANE. SINCE THAT TIME
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A RAGGED
BANDING-TYPE EYE SHOWING UP INTERMITTENTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER ALL
QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST...PROBABLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. HOWEVER THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... SO THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE...AND THE OCEAN VERY
FAVORABLE...FOR STRENGTHENING. THE LAND MASS OF WESTERN CUBA
SHOULD CAUSE AT MOST A TEMPORARY INTERRUPTION OF THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.

[Anonymous]

The ULL may keep Charlie slower though until it completely moves out the picture. This current trough is not suppose to sit in the gulf like the last one did, it is suppose to lift out quickly.

[southerngale]

However, NHC did say the NW turn was expected during the next 24 hours at 5am Wednesday morning. So, 2 1/2 hours left.

[Derecho]

Note that the BAMD has shifted radically to join the other models in the 06Z run....now into the big bend of FL rather than wandering into the GOM.

The 00Z UKMET and NOGAPS are into the Eastern FL Panhandle; however, both models incorrectly initialized Charley too far South And Charley is a significant distance north of their forecast tracks already.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Just got 988 mb with this system. 98 kt winds with this at flight level and this system could begin a very rapid intensifying phase here this morning. The potential of 100 mph winds at 5 am seems pretty accurate. This is a very dangerous situation for the western Caribbean and eventually for Florida's peninsula!!!

Jim

[Matthew5]

URNT12 KNHC 120554
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0554Z
B. 18 DEG 12 MIN N
79 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1303 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 041 DEG 70 KT
G. 295 DEG 08 NM
H. 988 MB
I. 17 C/ 1548 M
J. 20 C/ 1522 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15
N. 12345/8
O. 1/5 NM
P. AF968 0403A CHARLEY OB 23
MAX FL WIND 98 KT NE QUAD 0407Z.

[Derecho]

Heh...

Thought this would happen.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 4081200!!/


Note: one problem is that they don't display the first 3 days there.

However, that's clearly Charley there on the coast of South Carolina, having passed over FL.

All of the non-Florida models are gone, basically; at 06Z the BAMD also shifted massively to join everything else in hitting FL.

Only thing you may see now on the hurricane alley plots or something is CLIPER, a basically worthless pure climo model, with a track into the west or central GOM.

[Anonymous]

Great news here...Charlie needs to start turning soon though hes on the verge of passing south of the caymans at this track.

[weatherlover427]

URNT12 KNHC 120554
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0554Z
B. 18 DEG 12 MIN N
79 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1303 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 041 DEG 70 KT
G. 295 DEG 08 NM
H. 988 MB
I. 17 C/ 1548 M
J. 20 C/ 1522 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15
N. 12345/8
O. 1/5 NM
P. AF968 0403A CHARLEY OB 23
MAX FL WIND 98 KT NE QUAD 0407Z.

That can't be good.

[bahamaswx]

Nice to see that 5 page long thread about the ECMWF taking Charley into Texas will be put to rest.