CHARLEY BOMBING BEFORE LANDFALL

[Wnghs2007]

URNT12 KNHC 131833
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/1833Z
B. 26 DEG 18 MIN N
82 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2669 M
D. 110 KT
E. 192 DEG 006 NM
F. 156 DEG 102 KT
G. 192 DEG 006 NM
H. 946 MB
I. 9 C/ 3044 M
J. 20 C/ 2888 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C8
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF963 0903A CHARLEY OB 19
MAX FL WIND 141 KT SE QUAD 1658Z.

[OtherHD]

and its not even in the NE quadrant..watch and wait........

[Wnghs2007]

Yeah and pressure is down 8 mb in the last hour. Ummmm is that considered rapid intensification?

[opera ghost]

God.... Tell me this won't make Cat 5 as it rakes north up the coast....

[Wnghs2007]

The jump towards the North will probally allow it to hit Cat 5.


NEW VORTEX AGIAN!!!!!! DOWN TO 943 MB!!!!!!!!!

URNT12 KNHC 131904
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/1904Z
B. 26 DEG 29 MIN N
82 DEG 21 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2623 M
D. 100 KT
E. 310 DEG 002 NM
F. 227 DEG 123 KT
G. 134 DEG 007 M
H. 943 MB
I. 13 C/ 3032 M
J. 19 C/ 3003 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C6
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF963 0903A CHARLEY OB 24
MAX FL WIND 141 KT SE QUAD 1658Z.

[Hyperstorm]

Yeah and pressure is down 8 mb in the last hour. Ummmm is that considered rapid intensification?

Rapid intensification, boy???? EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Opal dropped that much in 1 HOUR.....Told you that a Category 5 if it were to strike a few hours later would be a PROBABILITY....

[southerngale]

This is just so unbelievable!!!

[SouthernWx]

A classic bomb....the worst case scenario....

Central pressure fell from 964 to 946 mb in 3 hours (between 1522z and 1833z)....or a rate of 6 mb per hour.

I haven't seen the latest flight level wind in the NE eyewall (on this recon pass), but I won't be surprised at 150 kts or more...with surface winds IMO now over 150 mph (based on the extreme pressure gradient of this compact Andrew-type hurricane).

I just hope and pray everyone is off Sanibel-Captiva Island and along the shoreline between Englewood and Marco Island...because an "average" 945 mb hurricane coming from the SW means a 16-18' storm surge in that area (and with this small hurricane's extremely tight gradient it could be 20' feet or more).

[Bane]

My parents live in Port Charlotte.

[Robin1122]

I confess that I am not familiar with hurricanes at all, but I do have a question. At 3:30 this afternoon, the weather channel was predicting that Charlie would cross back over water somewhere close to St. Augustine. Does this northerly move and drop in pressure indicate that it may move back over water further north? I ask this as I live on the intercoastal waterway in St. Marys, GA, one mile over the GA/FL line. We are quite confused with where the eye of this storm is going. Any advice from some of you experts? Thanks for your insight!

[NFLnut]

At risk of upsetting the mods for dredging up an old thread, I found this thread and I felt the chills down my spine. I live in Orlando and went to the business I own that day pretty certain that all Orlando would get from Charley was a lot of rain and a fair amount of wind since all of the forecasters on local TV and radio were so smug that Charley would sideswipe Tampa and ride up the west coast. Being a fourth generation Floridian, I had gotten pretty complacent about Canes over the years. After all, we all know that Andrew was a "once in a lifetime occurence!"

We got word about 11am that morning that Charley had started to turn and intensify. We closed our business early and stopped at the grocery store to pick up a couple of bottles of water and snacks. That night, about 10:00, we were slammed with some of the worst winds I can remember. Then, in the middle of the worst winds and rain -- rain falling in a horizontal manner that I have never seen -- two 60 foot palms snapped and fell on my roof. Two inches of water flooded the kitchen, and power went off. For four days!

Let's all hope that no one has to go through what we all went through last Summer. Unfortunately, that's a pipe dream! And the damage I received was nothing compared to what other's are still dealing with. Although I still have interior damage that the contractors haven't been able to get to yet, there are many others who received worse. My mother moves back in her house on Monday. She's been out since the week after Charley. There is still work to do. I know that the poor folks who were slammed by Ivan are now getting a lot of rain and wind that they don't need. Part of the risk of living in coastal areas .. yes. Still .. let's all listen to forecasts with the knowledge that forecasts are still best guesses and that it never hurts to be over-prepared! (I still am drinking bottled water from last Fall! )

[gatorcane]

Being a fourth generation Floridian, I had gotten pretty complacent about Canes over the years. After all, we all know that Andrew was a "once in a lifetime occurence!"

There are many complacent people in FL that probably think FL won't get hit my a major hurricane for while since we got our "dose" in 2004. That is a dead wrong opinion. In actuality the storms last year were nothing like the storms of the 30s and 40s like the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane or the 1947 Okeechobie storm. A Mitch, Gilbert, or Luis situation would here in FL frightens me. We move back into the period that FL was in between the 1920s-1950s and major hurricanes in FL will be as common as tornadoes in Oklahoma

[StormChasr]

There are many complacent people in FL that probably think FL won't get hit my a major hurricane for while since we got our "dose" in 2004. That is a dead wrong opinion. In actuality the storms last year were nothing like the storms of the 30s and 40s like the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane or the 1947 Okeechobie storm. A Mitch, Gilbert, or Luis situation would here in FL frightens me. We move back into the period that FL was in between the 1920s-1950s and major hurricanes in FL will be as common as tornadoes in Oklahoma

Nope...Boca Raton's got a cat 5 wating for you. Better hide under the bed.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I tracked this baby all night intill around 8am est. I took a nap intill 1pm est. I woke up turned on the tv in was shocked. I knew earlier and the day that Charley was on its way to becoming a monster.

[Anonymous]

Wow! How strong could that storm have gotten had it actually headed towards tampa and stayed over water a few more hours??!

[Derek Ortt]

had charley have moved up to Tampa, it probably would have weakened to a category 3 hurricane. It was starting an eye wall replacement cycle, and the shear from the trough that shoved it into Carolina (one of 3 there last year), was starting to shear the storm right at landfall.

Had Charley have been larger, computer simulations indicate that it would have produced the feared storm surge. However, as a strong cat 4, it really doesnt matter if it causes a surge or not as the winds simply level everything in the path

[Brent]

That was a day I will never forget... all the weather sites essentially crashed when that info about it being a Cat 4 came out(even this board was REALLY slow). Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne didn't top that, mainly because Frances and Ivan reached their peaks long before landfall. By the time Jeanne hit, I was sick and tired of hurricanes.

[Stratusxpeye]

I will always remember that day. I was storm chasing it on the i 75 south. Heard it was turning northeast so i left clearwater for punta gorda. Only got half way before I had to stop. I live northeast of there. The eye passed me about 25 miles away from my house but we were on the west side thank god. All those poor ppl in sw florida. Tampa would be no more if it got to cat 5 as it came up.

[tronbunny]

With the hindsight, my little family was about as fortunate as one could get for being in the direct path.
We did not cover our windows (didn't have time) and none broke...But,
I will never again go without covering my windows when a hurricane approaches. Doesn't matter if it looks like Floyd did (what a monster from a distance, or little ol' Charley (that turned into a buzz saw)
We still don't have the technology to accurately predict intensity at landfall.
To live as far inland as we do and to say "oh, it's gonna have to travel over hundreds of miles of land and it's only gonna be a Cat 1 or 2 at landfall" is for the ignorant.

I urge everyone who is within radar range of any Gulf or Atlantic coast to prepare for hurricanes.
(I know that at storm 2k, I'm preaching to the choir)

[gatorcane]

had charley have moved up to Tampa, it probably would have weakened to a category 3 hurricane. It was starting an eye wall replacement cycle, and the shear from the trough that shoved it into Carolina (one of 3 there last year), was starting to shear the storm right at landfall.

Derek I dont think so. It was nearly a CAT 5 before landfall and the shear was farther NW of it. At the speed it was going, and eye replacement cycle wouldn't not have bee long enough from keeping it a CAT 5.