Earl Advisories

[~SirCane]

It's at a low latitude, and after this front dies, there's not one for several days. And even that one won't be very stong. It looks likely.

[ncemthood]

If it were to make US landfall. When was the last time that anything like this has happened

[~SirCane]

1995 ? I was hit by 2 direct hits that year. CAT 2 Erin and CAT 3 Opal.

[Raider Power]

Is that another budding tropical wave about to make its way off the African west coast? Looks pretty vigorous.

[Lindaloo]

It's at a low latitude, and after this front dies, there's not one for several days. And even that one won't be very stong. It looks likely.

There is going to be a front.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168s.gif

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 6&start=20

[~SirCane]

I know there will be a front-but not as strong as this one I hear.

[Lindaloo]

Oh, my bad sir cane.

[~SirCane]

No problem! : ) It's buzzzy this time of year.

[Lindaloo]

I know and I am SOOOO tired too.

[MWatkins]

Zero chance in my mind that we do not have yet another tropical storm in the Atlantic this evening/morning:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Although the convective canopy is a little stretched from se to nw...that is about as tropical storm as you can get.

Earl at 5:00AM...11:00am at the absolute latest.

MW

[OtherHD]

Beat me to it Mike. I was just about to post the same thing.

I'm quite shocked that they lowered the intensity for the 11pm advisory to 30 mph. They said it was based on sat estimates and QS, but when I checked both of them after the advisory, both indicated 35 mph winds.

[southerngale]

Looks like a TS to me! I hope it stays a TS or goes fishing. The devastation of Charley was enough for a while!

[Stormcenter]

Zero chance in my mind that we do not have yet another tropical storm in the Atlantic this evening/morning:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Although the convective canopy is a little stretched from se to nw...that is about as tropical storm as you can get.

Earl at 5:00AM...11:00am at the absolute latest.

MW

I know it's early but where do you think the future Earl is headed?

[Wnghs2007]

Zero chance in my mind that we do not have yet another tropical storm in the Atlantic this evening/morning:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Although the convective canopy is a little stretched from se to nw...that is about as tropical storm as you can get.

Earl at 5:00AM...11:00am at the absolute latest.

MW

I know it's early but where do you think the future Earl is headed?

Who knows. My gut feeling is a landfall anywhere from Key West, FL, to Chorpus Christy mexico, and winds from 30-80 mph. LOL.........J/k I see it slamming into Mobile, Alabama as a Cat 3 Cane.

[LaBreeze]

What leads you to believe Mobile would be a target?

[Wnghs2007]

What leads you to believe Mobile would be a target?

Good Question

Great

Unintelligent

Term

System.

Or my Guts for Short. Also the nice small trought coming from the midwest and the positon of Earl, compared to Charleys track were it is amazingly close to at the end of the period, and then the fact that the trough will not be as strong as this current one that turned Charley. It will only serve to push it north into the Gulf coast.

[TampaFl]

Interesting comment about TD #5. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

FXUS62 KMFL 140657
AFDMFL

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
250 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...HURRICANE CHARLEY IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WATERS. THE HURRICANE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CAROLINA'S COAST TODAY...AS
THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS OF MEXICO
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA.

THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY...AND THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW OUTER FEEDER BANDS THAT COULD EXTEND DOWN INTO
THE CWA AREA. BUT IF ANY OF THEM DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD BE OVER
MOSTLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SO PLAN ON HAVING THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DECREASING AS YOU
GO SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO BUILD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY FROM
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND SHIFT THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TO
THE EAST. THIS WILL PUSH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST ON SUNDAY.


.EXTENDED FORECAST...THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
ISLANDS MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE WAVE COULD MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. SO PLAN ON RAISING THE POPS A LITTLE ON TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT
THE INCREASE MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #5 EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS FORECAST BY
THE NHC TO MOVE NORTHWEST TO AROUND THE JAMAICA ISLAND BY MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE THE FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF DEPRESSION #5. AT THIS
TIME PLAN ONLY TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE A LITTLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
LATE NEXT WEEK TO SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION #5 IS IN THE AREA OF
SOUTH FLORIDA.
&&

.MARINE...THE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WERE
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY AFTERNOON. OVER THE GULF AND LAKE WATERS...THE WINDS WERE
10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS SPEED SHOULD ALSO
SLOWLY DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON. THE SEAS WILL ALSO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET DOWN TO 2 FEET BY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...PLAN ON DROPPING THE SCA FOR THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS...AND PUT UP A SCEC FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS ONLY FOR THIS
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL THEN BE AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY...AS THEY
SHIFT FROM A SOUTH DIRECTION TO A EAST DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL
THEN INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS...AND INCREASE THE SEAS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TO 2 TO 4 FEET.

THE WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH REST OF THE
WEEK WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET...AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION #5 GETS CLOSER
TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 92 78 91 78 / 50 30 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 80 89 81 / 40 20 20 20
MIAMI 91 79 90 80 / 30 20 30 20
NAPLES 90 75 91 74 / 50 30 40 30
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

BAXTER

[TampaFl]

Interesting comment about upper level trof over the Gulf next week and TD #5. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

FXUS62 KTBW 140656
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
255 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...PLUME OF MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND CHARLEY
WILL STRETCH ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES PREDICTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH SOME ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. THEREFORE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR ENTIRE
REGION. MAY SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS EXPECTED.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...PLUME OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH
SOME AND WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS MOVE
INTO COASTAL AREAS FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH LATE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST AND EXPECT SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAV/MET NUMBERS WHICH ARE
SIMILAR.

.LONG TERM (MON NGT-FRI)...A SHORT PERIOD OF DRYING OUT STILL SEEMS
ON TAP AS MORE TYPICAL SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED THRU THURSDAY.
CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP 40
POPS IN FORECAST...AND TEMP FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG IN ON FRI. THIS SHOULD PULL IN SOME MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WHATEVER BECOMES OF T.D. 5...SO WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTN.

&&
.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TPA 87 75 89 75 / 60 30 50 20
FMY 88 74 90 74 / 60 30 50 20
GIF 89 74 90 74 / 60 30 50 20
SRQ 87 74 89 74 / 60 30 50 20
BKV 87 71 89 71 / 60 30 50 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...PRC
LONG TERM...RJS



[TerryAlly]

The last system to form less than 10N [EDIT: within 100 nm of TD05 postn] was Flora in 1963 which remained a depression for four days while travelling from 8N 33W to 10N 52.8W beforing becoming a tropical storm and eventually a category 4 hurricane which did a loop over Cuba and a brief visit to the Turks and Caicos Islands before going fishing.

Had my doubts about a system developing this low.

[LaBreeze]

Interesting indeed - keep us posted.