Earl Advisories

[BEER980]

Yep it will have the potential but will it is the big question?

[southerngale]

Thanks bunches!

I now have my secret decoder ring!

lol

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 151219
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/1208Z
B. 11 DEG 46 MIN N
60 DEG 47 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1527 M
D. 55 KT
E. 021 DEG 028 NM
F. 087 DEG 53 KT
G. 004 DEG 027 NM
H. 1011 MB
I. 19 C/ 1513 M
J. 22 C/ 1504 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /8
O. 1/5 NM
P. AF985 0105A EARL OB 06
MAX FL WIND 53 KT N QUAD 1159Z.

[Air Force Met]

Center is right in the middle of the convection...the NHC position is a little north...but pretty darn good considering the center is embedded in the convection and it was just a guess.

[Air Force Met]

Earl developed much sooner than Charley so it can be a stronger storm in the Carribean than Charley was. Although Earl, is looking elongated this morning.

It's elongated because it is moving so fast. This thing will really wrap up once it slows down.

[John]

I wouldn't point Earl at Florida at this stage of the game, Earl is likely to remain south therefor it will be hard for the next trough to entice him north.

[Anonymous]

Old run now. NGP is now in central GOM heading for LA.

However, all models are constantly shifting Southwards now. And the northernmost model currently (the UKMET) with a Panhandle landfall, is ALREADY wrong; Earl is running South of it.

GFDL is into the Yucatan, and then barely into the Bay of Campeche.

Great news.... Send this puppy for a chalupa (mexico)

[Anonymous]

Looks like the US will not be abused by this hurricane Earl. Is this safe to say? Models are trending south so would Earl rather have a chalupa... I had a chalupa last night and its a good idea for Earl

[Guest]

AS I did with Charley..... the early call on EARL is a track trhru the Yucatan -- perhaps JUST clipping the NE corner of it -- then into the Gulf ...slowing down then turning NW as the next trough comes in .... this next trough will NOT be as deep as the last one of course but should be sufficent to allow a turn to the WNW Or NW and thus miss the Yucatan... IF he slow then a turn to the Upper TX or LA Gulf coast seems a good bet.... otherwise lower TX.

[Brent]

I agree. Don't see a Florida threat this time.

[Opal storm]

We still need to watch it,as we saw with Charley things can change quick.

[Thunder44]

No, it too early to write off the US. But I don't think this going go anywhere near Florida. This will probably hit the Yucatan, than either go into South Texas or more likely Northern Mexico.

[Varanidae]

This is my first posting here, I usually just read and observe, but I feel I have to comment on the references that it is unlikely that two hurricanes will hit the same place twice in one season. In 1995, we got smacked twice by both hurricane Erin and then Opal here in the Ft Walton/Destin area. I hate to sound like a 'doom-sayer'. But it CAN happen, and just because an area has been hit, they should not let their guard down and assume it cant happen again. I apologize if I missed someone else that has already pointed this out. I dont mean to be repetitive.

[ChaserUK]

Nor do I - definatly reserved for TX or LA areas. But, and this is a big but, these storms have a habit of pulling a few surprises. At which point do you think we will be able to say with relative confidence, where abouts Earl may go?

[Frank P]

I don't think this will be another Florida event either.. I sure hope not...looks like the weather pattern is going to be more typical for August and Earl certainly could be a player for the west or north central gulf coast.... interesting to see how much flip flopping the models will do, however, that being said, I thought the models performed rather well overall relative to the 5 day forcasts as Charley headed towards SW Fl....

[washington]

I think it is still to early to call anything, all it takes is a short wave or upper level low to develop and the front will push in the gulf cost states.

[Anonymous]

Still far out at this point but the models (or one of them from TPC) takes Earl NW towards the Central GOM towards AL/MS:




what are the chances here ?

[Brent]

Nor do I - definatly reserved for TX or LA areas. But, and this is a big but, these storms have a habit of pulling a few surprises. At which point do you think we will be able to say with relative confidence, where abouts Earl may go?

About 36-48 hours out.

[Opal storm]

It's hard to tell exactly what impact the trough is going to have on the storm.It could very well take a straight turn north towards the central Gulf Coast,or like you said,it could hit the western Gulf coast.Still,people from Miami to Texas need to watch this,the forecasted tracks will change.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Tropical Storm EARL

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UPDATE

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000
WTNT75 KNHC 150842
SPFAT5
TROPICAL STORM EARL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN AUG 15 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.1 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST WED AUG 18 2004

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

13.9N 66.5W 52 2 X X 54 MTCA 183N 738W X X 20 3 23
15.0N 70.6W X 35 1 1 37 MKJP 179N 768W X X 9 15 24
16.1N 74.4W X 1 26 X 27 MKJS 185N 779W X X 3 19 22
SKPG 125N 717W X 6 3 X 9 MWCG 193N 814W X X X 18 18
TNCC 122N 690W 2 9 X X 11 MUGM 200N 751W X X 4 11 15
SVMG 110N 640W 4 X X X 4 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 13 13
TTPP 106N 614W 2 X X X 2 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 12 12
TTPT 112N 608W 34 X X X 34 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 11 11
TGPY 120N 618W 68 X X X 68 MUHA 230N 824W X X X 7 7
TBPB 131N 595W 85 X X X 85 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 5 5
TVSV 131N 612W 93 X X X 93 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 2 2
TLPL 138N 610W 70 X X X 70 TJSJ 184N 661W X 2 X X 2
TFFF 146N 610W 22 X X X 22 MDPP 198N 707W X X 5 1 6
TDPR 153N 614W 5 X X X 5 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 2 2
80400 157N 636W 20 X X X 20 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2
TISX 177N 648W 1 1 X X 2 ST CROIX VI 1 1 X X 2
TJPS 180N 666W 1 4 X X 5 SAN JUAN PR X 2 X X 2
MDSD 185N 697W X 6 7 X 13 PONCE PR 1 4 X X 5
MDCB 176N 714W X 10 15 1 26 MARATHON FL X X X 2 2
MTPP 186N 724W X 1 17 1 19 KEY WEST FL X X X 2 2

MARATHON AND KEY WEST ALREADY AT 2 % CHANCE!