Time ticking away for Texas

[corpusbreeze]

Every day that now passes by is one day closer for the end of hurricane season. Yes I know thats the case for everybody,but the western gulf season comes to an end much sooner than say Florida or East Coast. Now some of you on this board may find this to be good news. Bottom line it has been a boring season for the Texas coast and I don't see anything on the horizon to change that. Once the cold fronts start to pass through thats it for Texas. And of course they already have. Last weeks front that kept Charley away was the coolest in August that I can remember. I think we here in Corpus had a least 3-4 low temperature records broke that week. But thank God for the front because Charley could of hit us here and Charley was a little to powerful for my liking. There is not too much season left for Texas.

[KatDaddy]

Remember Gilbert moved across the W GOM Sept 19th. We still have a long way to go yet for the W GOM and TX.

[Air Force Met]

We have until mid-October...so...a little less than 2 months.

[Josephine96]

Technically you have until the end of the season.. so don't get all happy or sad yet lol..

Here in Central Florida.. we're cleaning up after Charley still and another storm too soon here could be catastrophic

[vbhoutex]

Good points corpusbreeze. However, sometimes those fronts are far enough apart that a system has the time to slip in ala Gilbert. I don't officialy shut down the "TX hurricane season" till mid October either. And don't forget Hurricane Jerry in late October, 1989, right into Galveston and Baytown with 80 mph winds, even though all we got was a breeze and a spit on the west side of town. Of course, that is the other wrench in our theory of shutting down the "TX hurricane season" early-those little nasty home grown systems that sometimes pop up in the W GOM.

[ROCK]

Hey new here from Friendswood and still learning the tropics so dont bash me yet. lol....but are'nt the SST's in the GOM are still toasty enough to suppot a TS?? I wouldnt rule out development until we get a lagit front in Oct. Just my opinion...

[Air Force Met]

Good points corpusbreeze. However, sometimes those fronts are far enough apart that a system has the time to slip in ala Gilbert. I don't officialy shut down the "TX hurricane season" till mid October either. And don't forget Hurricane Jerry in late October, 1989, right into Galveston and Baytown with 80 mph winds, even though all we got was a breeze and a spit on the west side of town. Of course, that is the other wrench in our theory of shutting down the "TX hurricane season" early-those little nasty home grown systems that sometimes pop up in the W GOM.

Ahh Jerry. It was actually mid-October (15 October...16 October UTC).

Jerry was a supercell thunderstorm with an eye. lol

I was at a friend's house in Webster. We got nothing...5 -10 kts...but drove 5 miles east and got tropical storm force winds.

[corpusbreeze]

Hey new here from Friendswood and still learning the tropics so dont bash me yet. lol....but are'nt the SST's in the GOM are still toasty enough to suppot a TS?? I wouldnt rule out development until we get a lagit front in Oct. Just my opinion...

Yeah the water will continue to stay warm, but it seems this year that the fronts want to start early, which will keep away the storms. Now louisiana east could have problems.

[HouTXmetro]

Hey new here from Friendswood and still learning the tropics so dont bash me yet. lol....but are'nt the SST's in the GOM are still toasty enough to suppot a TS?? I wouldnt rule out development until we get a lagit front in Oct. Just my opinion...

Yeah the water will continue to stay warm, but it seems this year that the fronts want to start early, which will keep away the storms. Now louisiana east could have problems.

I agree. There is always next year, and the year after that. LOL. Our will day will come though. It seems like the areas that don't get hit often get HIT HARD to make up for it. Just ask the SW Floridians.

[BayouVenteux]

Yeah the water will continue to stay warm, but it seems this year that the fronts want to start early, which will keep away the storms.

Yes, but that unseasonable episode was before the pattern change we are currently undergoing. While climo gradually does point to diminishing probabilities of a Texas landfall, the calendar still says August, and the names Carla, Beulah, and Gilbert should be enough to convince you that a powerful western landfalling hurricane is not beyond the realm of possibility in September...especially considering how warm the western Gulf SSTs are running this year.

[B-Bear]

Good points corpusbreeze. However, sometimes those fronts are far enough apart that a system has the time to slip in ala Gilbert. I don't officialy shut down the "TX hurricane season" till mid October either. And don't forget Hurricane Jerry in late October, 1989, right into Galveston and Baytown with 80 mph winds, even though all we got was a breeze and a spit on the west side of town. Of course, that is the other wrench in our theory of shutting down the "TX hurricane season" early-those little nasty home grown systems that sometimes pop up in the W GOM.

Ahh Jerry. It was actually mid-October (15 October...16 October UTC).

Jerry was a supercell thunderstorm with an eye. lol

I was at a friend's house in Webster. We got nothing...5 -10 kts...but drove 5 miles east and got tropical storm force winds.

I lived in Seabrook at the time. It got a little intense there. What was so bizzare about that thing was that the entire storm fit into Galveston Bay. Smallest hurricane I ever saw.

[southerngale]

I agree corpus...tick tick tick...every day, our chances go down IMO. (of course there's always a chance) After seeing Charley's destruction and being reminded of the devastation hurricanes cause, that's fine by me!

[GalvestonDuck]

Sept. 8, 1900.

We're still not even through the peak weeks of hurricane season...and the fat lady isn't singing yet.

[TS Zack]

If a system is timed right it will hit you. The fronts aren't constant so you got some time to keep watching and remember these systems don't always go where they are supposed to go.

[southerngale]

Sept. 8, 1900.

We're still not even through the peak weeks of hurricane season...and the fat lady isn't singing yet.

I beg to differ. You should hear who's singing on the radio right now.

[LaBreeze]

Don't forget that Hurricane Lili was headed for the upper Texas coast and decided to visit us here in Louisiana in early October. I did hear a local met state last night that another front is due in by September 1st. We'll just have to wait and see. We're finally getting some much needed rainfall here today. My lawn is so happy

[Steve]

Interesting topic. Bastardi also addressed this in his 14 minute tropical update today. He showed his graphic for his "remainder of the season" landfall intensity update but noted that every day that passes makes it a little harder for Texas (and reduced - if I remember correctly - his landfall intensity there accordingly). However, if he hits the remainder of his season along with the landfall intensity he's already got, we're in for a historical record of landfall effects in 2004 utilizing his scale.

Steve

[GalvestonDuck]

Sept. 8, 1900.

We're still not even through the peak weeks of hurricane season...and the fat lady isn't singing yet.

I beg to differ. You should hear who's singing on the radio right now.

T****? On the radio???

[GalvestonDuck]

Sept. 8, 1900.

We're still not even through the peak weeks of hurricane season...and the fat lady isn't singing yet.

I beg to differ. You should hear who's singing on the radio right now.

T****? On the radio???

[Canebo]

I remember Jerry too. I was working in downtown Houston the evening it came through. We went up to the roof and could see the storm to the east, but did not feel any effects there. That was a tiny storm.
After going through Alicia in 83', I was relieved it had such a minimal impact on the area. My dad was here for Carla in 61' and even though it hit farther south, he said it blew the front door open on his old house in Pasadena.

Although the fronts can act as a shield to deflect any storms that may be headed our way, they can also increase our chances. The 1st few fronts don't drop the SST's much and always have a chance of stalling in the Gulf and paying us a return visit with a little more intensity.