Could SE Coast Storm be starting to form???

[Three Blind Mice]

North winds reported off SC coast. Could we see that convection beginning to spin today??

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=TYBG1

[Three Blind Mice]

BUMP!!!!!!!!!

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/trop_lant4col.gif

[HurricaneGirl]

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Any new info on this??

[Josephine96]

3 blind mice.. 3 blind mice.. see how they run lol sorry..

{is on a bit of a sugar high and adrenaline rush do to having to live in the heat lol}

[PurdueWx80]

Any new info on this??

The north winds are all along the coast because a front has gone through there! I don't see any evidence of a low-level circulation, although there is generally good convergence along the front. Development, if any, should be slow to occur. I also mentioned in another post that a few mesoscale models (not operational) are forecasting slow development either there, or in the NE Gulf. There is a weak low pressure over the FL peninsula now, if it backs to the SW over the water it could develop slowly as well, as long as the mid/upper level shear weakens. The shear appears to be pretty harsh at the moment.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Thanks, Purdue!

[Rieyeuxs]

In the terms "slow to develop", what kind of time frame might we be looking at? Just curious

[PurdueWx80]

In the terms "slow to develop", what kind of time frame might we be looking at? Just curious

The environment is looking really poor, as it's characterized by moderate shear with no perfect placement of an outflow channel. I'm thinking of a time scale on the order of 36-60 hours from now, w/ only slow strengthening possible thereafter until the shear lessens. A solid mid or low level circulation has to form before we can even begin to address this issue though. The first step is there, with decent moisture convergence along the old frontal boundary. There is an upper level disturbance over the southeast that may aid in some sort of hybrid development, with a storm forming either underneath it, or just to its east. The steering currents would be pretty weak if anything developed, so I would look for very slow movement, with a possible tendency to drift towards the SW at a snail's pace.

[Three Blind Mice]

pure dumb luck! NO, JB got me looking this way a little early. Give him his due on this one.

[Brent]

In the terms "slow to develop", what kind of time frame might we be looking at? Just curious

It means if it sits down there a couple more days it could start to develop. Right now, nothing is going to happen. Probably be more of a rainmaker than a wind storm.

[Josephine96]

Guess it's just a wait and see thing like everything else...

[KG4HPN]

I realize this doesn't mean a durn thing, but take a look at this radar loop...

http://weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml

Joette, KG4HPN

[rbaker]

must be at mid levels, cause pressures off of jax and mlb and se coast of us are in the 1020-1022mb range-very high.

[Yankeegirl]

The met is was watching earlier, said that the pressures are too high... maybe some development, but none expected...