12Z GFS Left Shift Continues

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 11:39 am

Hey...look...there's Frances approaching NE Puerto Rico by day 7 in the model.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_168s.gif

Looks like the trough is going to pass Frances and not dig in...which is of course what we have been screaming about since Monday..note the tough axis is well past Frances by 96 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096s.gif

MW

Website · #2 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 11:41 am

jabber · #3 Postby **jabber** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 11:44 am

Mike,

Can you help me here. How and with what maps or charts do I use to see the trough.... what am I looking for?

Please educate me

ameriwx2003 · #4 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 11:49 am

Not only the left shift continues but its showing Frances will be having some company out in the Atlantic in the coming days:):)

Guest · #5 Postby **Guest** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 11:57 am

plenty of company for Frances indeed. I do not completely buy into that scenerio of a quick right hook out to sea as the storm approaches the US coast. I am also not buying the 2nd system (which hasnt even developed yet) going due west into the gulf.

ameriwx2003 · #6 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 12:04 pm

Brian... I would agree.. the post 7 day period will continue to change.. it will be interesting to watch how this unfolds.

:)

sunny · #7 Postby **sunny** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 12:13 pm

Mike-

I always take an interest in - and trust - your posts. I used to watch for them on the other board. That being said, and I know it's early, but do you think this has a chance of making it in the gulf? I am very much a nervous nelly sitting here! Thanks!

KWT · #8 Postby **KWT** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 12:16 pm

oh no that first one(Frances)according to that is gonna take the exact same track as Alex did,right into the U.K which would mean MORE unsettled weather.

I mean we have had just one LP after another recently,partly because of these ex hurricanes tracking towards us.

still as you said it's along way out yet and is very likely to change.

sunny · #9 Postby **sunny** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 12:17 pm

Thank you! I know it sounds silly.

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 12:20 pm

MWatkins wrote:Hey...look...there's Frances approaching NE Puerto Rico by day 7 in the model.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_168s.gif

Looks like the trough is going to pass Frances and not dig in...which is of course what we have been screaming about since Monday..note the tough axis is well past Frances by 96 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096s.gif

MW

Mike did you said Puerto Rico? Hmmm I thought it was a fishy,fishy:eek:But seriously at noon the TV met at univision was more worried than before about it moving more westward.

Guest · #11 Postby **Guest** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 12:22 pm

I'm thinking that as of now, Frances (remember this is not -removed-, just early thinking) Will landfall somewhere between Miami and the Outer Banks. Bottom line is that its looking more and more likely that we may get hit by this one.

KWT · #12 Postby **KWT** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 12:24 pm

yeah I agree nikolai it is seeming more likely the U.S will be hit by this one.

Guest · #13 Postby **Guest** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 12:28 pm

I seriously doubt TD6 will ever get close to the US for a direct hit. it will likely be just south of cape cod, quite a bit out to sea off hatteras then out, or stall out south of bermuda and get sheared then picked up by a trough. mark my words. Although this is also way way way in the future and I am liable to change this opinion

Now the action behind Frances , closer to mid september, there is plenty to worry about

KWT · #14 Postby **KWT** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 12:32 pm

Well I personally reckon 'frances will do what alex did,skim past and then back out to sea and probably towards the graveyard for storms,the U.K :wink:

#15 Postby **wx247** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 12:41 pm

Well I think it is going to hit Tulsa, OK as a cat 7 and travel up I-44 and hit Monett, MO as a cat 8. :roll:

We don't know yet... to soon to tell. Keep watching the trends though. MWatkins is right on top of things.

Website · #16 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 12:46 pm

wx247 wrote:Well I think it is going to hit Tulsa, OK as a cat 7 and travel up I-44 and hit Monett, MO as a cat 8.

PuertoRicoLibre · #17 Postby **PuertoRicoLibre** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 1:08 pm

MW, not only does it seem to be pointing to a hit but the new output seems to be suggesting a stronger system than the earlier run in my neighborhood on the anniversary date of that close call named David in 1979.

When was the last time we had had 6 systems form by August 31? 1995? (Of course, if you believe it is at least 7)

At this rate, I would expect another significant left shift in the projected path at 5 pm. What do you think? Your sensible non hysterical and insightful analysis is always appreciated.

#18 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 1:12 pm

Actually in 1995 by the end of August 31st, we had 12 named storms with Hurricane Luis.

<RICKY>

PuertoRicoLibre wrote:MW, not only does it seem to be pointing to a hit but the new output seems to be suggesting a stronger system than the earlier run in my neighborhood on the anniversary date of that close call named David in 1979.

When was the last time we had had 6 systems form by August 31? 1995? (Of course, if you believe it is at least 7)

At this rate, I would expect another significant left shift in the projected path at 5 pm. What do you think? Your sensible non hysterical and insightful analysis is always appreciated.

#19 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 1:29 pm

I'm going to attempt to answer all of the questions in the thread at once...I'll check back in later too...

Sunny: It is much too early to tell if this system is going to affect any specific point...but we should have plenty of time to watch what happens. TD6 is a good 6/7 days away from the Islands at least and another 5 days from any point in the US mainland. A lot can happen between now and then so the best thing I can recommend is do everything you should have done...in terms of preparation...that should have been complete by June 1. No need to be nervous...the chances of going into the Gulf are much smaller than the chances of it NOT going into the gulf.

PuertoRicoLibre: Yep...we will probably see some shift but not as much as the GFS is advertising yet. The UKMET is coming left but the NOGAPS has shifted right...if the models continue to come left overnight we will probably see the NHC commit to a more westward track...I would expect a track in line with the 12Z GFDL that came out an hour ago...this model has also come left and has this system near 20N 55W moving west in 5 days.

Jabber: For a hurricane or strong tropical storm the best place to look for steering is the 500MB charts. As far as picking up the troughs...it is somewhat detailed...I'll do my best to answer your question in more detail later this evening...as it will probably take more time than I have right now...

MW

jabber · #20 Postby **jabber** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 1:35 pm

MWatkins wrote:I'm going to attempt to answer all of the questions in the thread at once...I'll check back in later too...

Jabber: For a hurricane or strong tropical storm the best place to look for steering is the 500MB charts. As far as picking up the troughs...it is somewhat detailed...I'll do my best to answer your question in more detail later this evening...as it will probably take more time than I have right now...

MW

Thanks much.... look forward to it

12Z GFS Left Shift Continues

12Z GFS Left Shift Continues

Re: 12Z GFS Left Shift Continues

Who is online