Please stop

[mobilebay]

with this east coast hype. There is ONE (1) freakin model projecting that way. everyone is entitled to his or her opinion but this is ridiculous. Jumping on one line of the Discussion when that model has been on the right all along.Please at this time most of the best guidence (SO FAR) has it headed for South Florida.

[lilbump3000]

I hope it just goes up the east coast and put a big smile on there face and we can all be done with this one.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I have, from day 1, said it was a s.fla-gom cane...

[tropicstorm]

If it is just east coast hype, then why has the NHC moved their official 5 day potential track this morning more to the north & east, even if only gradual. You don't have to agree with their projected forecast path (they stayed too north on Charley for too long) but they are still recognized as the official track for public information.

[Steve Cosby]

There used to be some troll on the other boards that screamed "Northeast Threat!" on every cloud that formed on the African mainland. He was worth at least a few chuckles every season.

This was the same guy that hyped the Dyn-O-Mat stuff. Anybody hear from that crew anymore? Are they in prison yet?

[ericinmia]

If it is just east coast hype, then why has the NHC moved their official 5 day potential track this morning more to the north & east, even if only gradual. You don't have to agree with their projected forecast path (they stayed too north on Charley for too long) but they are still recognized as the official track for public information.

Take a look at the models...

4 models have been predicting the same exact thing for 5+ runs now...

1 model has been showing the same consistancy, however to the north...

The NHC has suddenly just decided to use that ONE model (GFDL) to support their track.

-Eric

[mobilebay]

There used to be some troll on the other boards that screamed "Northeast Threat!" on every cloud that formed on the African mainland. He was worth at least a few chuckles every season.

This was the same guy that hyped the Dyn-O-Mat stuff. Anybody hear from that crew anymore? Are they in prison yet?

OH yeah, Dyn-no-CRAP

[Wthrman13]

Take a look at the models...

4 models have been predicting the same exact thing for 5+ runs now...

1 model has been showing the same consistancy, however to the north...

The NHC has suddenly just decided to use that ONE model (GFDL) to support their track.

-Eric

Wow, where did you get this from? Talk about reading into their discussion!

[BayouVenteux]

There used to be some troll on the other boards that screamed "Northeast Threat!" on every cloud that formed on the African mainland. He was worth at least a few chuckles every season.

This was the same guy that hyped the Dyn-O-Mat stuff. Anybody hear from that crew anymore? Are they in prison yet?

It was two posters actually...used to be regulars on the PBi board in its heyday. One was Dyn-O-Storm, who would tweak everyone with the fictional exploits of his fleet of planes and their stormbusting chemical drops into whatever system was garnering attention at the moment. The other guy you're probably thinking of was a New Englander known as PAUK and had a propensity for directing everything coming off the African coast into "POSSIBLE SNE THREAT!!", come to think of it, I think he may have said that about a couple of storms in the Bay of Campeche too.

Harmless, but colorful. It takes all kinds...that's what makes these boards so--ahem--colorful, as well as informative.

[ericinmia]

Take a look at the models...

4 models have been predicting the same exact thing for 5+ runs now...

1 model has been showing the same consistancy, however to the north...

The NHC has suddenly just decided to use that ONE model (GFDL) to support their track.

-Eric

Wow, where did you get this from? Talk about reading into their discussion!

Don't be critical... its not necissary; it makes you look stupid.
If you watch all the model runs every run... you would have the same understanding and agreement.
-Eric

[mobilebay]

Take a look at the models...

4 models have been predicting the same exact thing for 5+ runs now...

1 model has been showing the same consistancy, however to the north...

The NHC has suddenly just decided to use that ONE model (GFDL) to support their track.

-Eric

Wow, where did you get this from? Talk about reading into their discussion!

Don't be critical... its not necissary; it makes you look stupid.
If you watch all the model runs every run... you would have the same understanding and agreement.
-Eric

LOL. They need to throw in a Wish Cast model and it would be very consisstant on an Carolina Landfall.

[Dean4Storms]

The NHC has begun to shift the track NW late in it's forecast period for several reasons.......

1) It is the split basically between the models.
2) Near the Bahamas the TC should begin somewhat of a turn as it rounds the ridge out in front of a trough across the CONUS.
3) To keep the track from pointing directly at south Florida for now until more certainty in UL and surface conditions are learned by Recon. missions.

I'll say this, the models wanting to take Frances more northward have been doing so since she was a TD way back at 35w and have been not so good with her track to this point. The models taking Frances on the more southerly route have been almost dead on thus far and have been joined by a couple other models that use to take her northward. In essence, right now the CONUS coastline most in jeopardy first is the southern Florida coast until we see a definite turn toward the NW near the Bahamas. So why anyone would try at this point to lessen that threat is ridiculous in my opinion.

[DocMonks]

...The NHC has suddenly just decided to use that ONE model (GFDL) to support their track.

-Eric

On the 15Z advisory, it looks to me that NHC is using the BAMD track (12Z).

Doc

[ericinmia]

No...

They are using the GFDL to influence their track to the north. The four other tracks that have been consistant with this storm are to the south of the NHC track?

Why put your track north of the four most consistant tracks, and situate it based on a model that has not shown the least bit of accuracy with this storm?
-Eric

[Dean4Storms]

No...

They are using the GFDL to influence their track to the north. The four other tracks that have been consistant with this storm are to the south of the NHC track?

Why put your track north of the four most consistant tracks, and situate it based on a model that has not shown the least bit of accuracy with this storm?
-Eric

That graphic is not showing some of the Global model plots, GUNNA, NOGAPS, e.t.c.....

[mobilebay]

No...

They are using the GFDL to influence their track to the north. The four other tracks that have been consistant with this storm are to the south of the NHC track?

Why put your track north of the four most consistant tracks, and situate it based on a model that has not shown the least bit of accuracy with this storm?
-Eric

That graphic is not showing some of the Global model plots, GUNNA, NOGAPS, e.t.c.....

The GUNA is an ensenble of four of the Globals.

[ericinmia]

No however things like... i believe the ukmet use the nogaps as their initialization backdrop.

So the UKMET is on par with the nogaps to a degree... its a tropical enhanced version.
-Eric

[Derek Ortt]

there are many other models indicating a track so far north of miami that it isnt even funny. Will you all understand that only a small sample of the models are provided in those transmissions? Plus, there is a reason why the nhc and nwhhc tracks are in agreement at this point, because this is a straight forward forecast than anyone should be able to get right through 5 days

[jaysonx]

You guys need to ease up on clinging to models... they do a good job of showing where the steering currents may guide a storm, but are very bad in forcasting where a major hurricane will make landfall... especially when you are 5+ days out.

Remember a few weeks ago when they had Charlie going into Panama City Beach?

[cape_escape]

...The NHC has suddenly just decided to use that ONE model (GFDL) to support their track.

-Eric

On the 15Z advisory, it looks to me that NHC is using the BAMD track (12Z).

Doc

I don't think I like the looks of this one. It looks as though it has Frances exiting near Punta Gorda! Not good, am I right or am I way off course here?