Frances Advisories

B-Bear · #2141 Postby **B-Bear** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:12 pm

Matthew5 wrote:Isabel before it bombed had super outflow from the trough on the eastern side.

Well I do know that when they start getting well ventilated like that it can make for some explosive development.

TS Zack · #2142 Postby **TS Zack** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:13 pm

The new runs with all the new data has the systme moving faster than older models, stronger, and has the ridge stronger than before with it built all the way to the central Gulf.

B-Bear · #2143 Postby **B-Bear** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:13 pm

rut roh

Matthew5 · #2144 Postby **Matthew5** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:14 pm

Thats what looks to be going on. Keep us updated!

flyingphish · #2145 Postby **flyingphish** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:14 pm

Glad to hear you may look at that" larger" picture B-Bear. Have a good evening and enjoy the weather !!

#2146 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:15 pm

There is no big trough coming down at this time. Gaston is already almost history and Hermine will be soon due to cooler waters. Both will be out of the picture before Frances is close enough to feel the ripples that these two storms will leave in the ridge. Way too much difference between them and plenty of time for the very strong ridge to fill in behind them before Frances gets close enough to feel them.

frankthetank · #2147 Postby **frankthetank** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:15 pm

maybe the question is--after it clears the "garbage"--and florida--where is Frances heading too along the gulf coast??? New Orleans?

Windsong · #2148 Postby **Windsong** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:15 pm

Hey guys...what does this mean?

B-Bear · #2149 Postby **B-Bear** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:16 pm

That would be a very bad thing.

TS Zack · #2150 Postby **TS Zack** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:16 pm

Means more West track!
Not A Good Thing

B-Bear · #2151 Postby **B-Bear** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:17 pm

That means the ridge is looking to be very strong and deep. Should keep Frances more west to northwest longer. Increases liklihood of S. Florida & GOM event. That is, if it bears out.

Matthew5 · #2152 Postby **Matthew5** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:17 pm

It means that it will stay more south. With a landfall in southern Florida likely then Gulf of Mexico.

montrealboy · #2153 Postby **montrealboy** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:17 pm

#2154 Postby **btangy** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:18 pm

00Z GFS is one day faster compared to 12Z

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_090m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_126m.gif

00Z GFS initialized with a stronger ridge (594dm+ heights), so the faster forward motion is expected.

B-Bear · #2155 Postby **B-Bear** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:18 pm

Now if only the models could have this kind of concensus. LOL

#2156 Postby **ericinmia** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:18 pm

WOW that's really south...

That kills the keys!

-Eric

TropicalJon · #2157 Postby **TropicalJon** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:19 pm

I don't like that one so much...

Derecho · #2158 Postby **Derecho** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:21 pm

The 0Z GFS is more NORTH on Day 3+, may be turning back W day 6 or so...still coming out.

#2159 Postby **btangy** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:23 pm

Looks like the GFDL run so far.

frankthetank · #2160 Postby **frankthetank** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:26 pm

B-Bear...classic line...great....humor is what keeps people going when there really tired and addicted to weather....well...I guess its better then crack

EDIT

Frances Advisories

0Z GFS

0Z Global Canadian Model Aug 30 2004

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