Last few frames took a nice little jog to the NW

Burn1 · #1 Postby **Burn1** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 7:45 am

Wobble, or trend

Guest · #2 Postby **Guest** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 7:47 am

& 3 or 4 frames before it went westerly.

Burn1 · #3 Postby **Burn1** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 7:48 am

True, but this was a nice little pop.....

bobbisboy · #4 Postby **bobbisboy** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 7:49 am

No doubt last jog has been almost a pure NW movement. Even if there are only occasional jogs like this, it will have a huge effect down the road. Also note the latest tropical models now show further up the Florida coast. BAMMs had been consistently west. Stay tuned.

logybogy · #5 Postby **logybogy** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 7:49 am

wobble. the storm is tracking just due north of west. west west west west wobble north west west west west wobble north.

It's stair-stepping.

Dmetal81 · #6 Postby **Dmetal81** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 7:49 am

I saw that northward jog too, was wondering if it was just my eyes. She seems a bit more elongated today also, wondering if something is starting to tug on her just a bit.

#7 Postby **ericinmia** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 7:50 am

logybogy wrote:wobble. the storm is tracking just due north of west. west west west west wobble north west west west west wobble north.

It's stair-stepping.

Yeah... look at the longer loops... it is doing the above...
-Eric

Burn1 · #8 Postby **Burn1** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 7:52 am

I just followed up on another thread about the elongation.....I think this may be the turn we are looking for to help keep SFL safe.....I'll stick with what I have been saying for days...We will get that turn!

B-Bear · #9 Postby **B-Bear** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 7:55 am

*shakes his head*

Burn1 · #10 Postby **Burn1** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 7:58 am

I knew you were lurking somewhere.....Back and forth all day today ay!!

B-Bear · #11 Postby **B-Bear** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 8:00 am

Hey, I'm your biggest fan. I'm hoping to God you're right. But the laws of physics are leading me to believe this storm is headed for south Florida.

washington · #12 Postby **washington** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 8:01 am

I still see the ridge over n. Fl and the ridge over the atlantic with all that said I don't see a turn coming anytime soon. The ridge in the Atlantic is still keeping her on that w or WNW track and the other ridge is going to block her from going nw until land fall.

Anonymous · #13 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 8:02 am

Incredible.
Do you guys wants a SC/NC landfall that bad that you will hallucinate?

Look at this loop!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Stop stating things that arent occuring.

Dmetal81 · #14 Postby **Dmetal81** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 8:04 am

If you insinuate -removed- you are sorely mistaken, I am in the process of packing my bags to head to Daytona Beach to help my family board up and move inland.....

Burn1 · #15 Postby **Burn1** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 8:11 am

B-Bear good to hear from you and thanks to that last link by Houstoner
it does look like we've gone left again.....Is this the "Perfect Storm"
for SFL? Look forward to chatting with you guys throughout the day!

Anonymous · #16 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 8:15 am

I wont call it as the BIG ONE, but it has got a good shot.

I also want people to notice something. Frances is about to cross 70 W at about 22 N (somewhere in that region). At its current heading it will rake across all the Bahaman Islands. if this thing is to turn and miss Florida conpletely (like many people claim), then it will have to head almost NORTH of NW from this point right now (meaning a turn must occur SOON). I dont honestly see that happening and I dont know why others do.

B-Bear · #17 Postby **B-Bear** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 8:18 am

Burn1 wrote:B-Bear good to hear from you and thanks to that last link by Houstoner
it does look like we've gone left again.....Is this the "Perfect Storm"
for SFL? Look forward to chatting with you guys throughout the day!

I have not seen a storm this impressive for a very long time. The fact that she keeps going through so many eye wall replacement cycles would seem to indicate that she wants to get bigger and badder. I do fear that this is going to be a catastrophic storm at landfall. I would wager a bet that this will end up being the most costly hurricane in U.S. history. Hopefully they can keep the death toll low with good warnings and evacs, but they're not doing a great job of getting the people prepared thus far, IMO.

Now it's all going to come down to the high pressure system to her north. She really doesn't have any control over her own path--it's a matter of what atmospheric conditions set up in front of her. Right now it appears a high pressure system will be in place, and the trough to the west will not be in place in time to influence her.

Watch out south Florida.

logybogy · #18 Postby **logybogy** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 8:18 am

It's setting up to hit around a major metro area such as Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/West Palm as a strong Cat 4/5 with a huge wind field.

Can you say 2-4 million people waking up homeless? Talk about a humanitarian diaster. Damage in the hundreds of billions...

I really shudder to think about how bad it could be. It would make Andrew look like a bad summer thunderstorm.

x-y-no · #19 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 8:20 am

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the 11AM fix will be 21.7N 69.9W.

That's a straight-line extrapolation of her course since last night. That is slightly north of her average course yesterday, but just slightly.

#20 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 8:25 am

Again...it is really pointless to post a new thread everytime it jogs to the NW. Now...since 1215Z according to the GHCC sat loop...its moving back at almost 275. The last 3 minages...since 1225Z show it moving due 270.

We really have to work on consolidated these threads into one...there is no need to start a new one everytime she hiccups. :-)

Same thing happens yesterday. Matter of fact...everytime you post a north trend...it starts to head back to the west...maybe Frances has an internet connnection :-)

Last few frames took a nice little jog to the NW

Last few frames took a nice little jog to the NW

NO DOUBT.........

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