Hurricane Frances Intermediate Advisory Number 35a
Statement as of 2:00 PM AST on September 02, 2004
...Hurricane Frances pounding San Salvador island in the
Bahamas...heading for Florida...
a Hurricane Warning has been issued for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the
middle and upper Florida Keys from south of Florida City to the
Seven Mile Bridge including Florida Bay.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the all the Bahamas.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Satellite images...radar and data from a reconnaissance plane
indicate that at 2 PM AST...1800z...the eye of Hurricane Frances
was located near latitude 23.8 north...longitude 74.4 west...very
near San Salvador island in the Bahamas and 410 miles...660
km...east-southeast of the lower Florida East Coast.
Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr.
This general motion with a turn to the northwest and a decrease in
forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On this
track...the core of Hurricane Frances will continue to move near or
over the central Bahamas this afternoon and evening.
Frances remains a dangerous category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale with maximum sustained winds near
145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in
intensity are expected during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km. San Salvador in the Bahamas just reported
86 mph winds...139 km/hr. Long Island in the Bahamas recently
reported a wind gust of 69 mph...111 km/hr.
Latest minimum pressure reported by an Air Force plane was 949
mb...28.02 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 6 to 14 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the eye of Frances on the west side of Eleuthera island...and
on the north side of Grand Bahama Island. Storm surge flooding of
4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels can be expected on the west
side of the other islands of the Bahamas. Coastal storm surge
flooding of 6 to 11 feet above normal tide levels...along with
large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to
the north of where the center makes landfall in Florida.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches...locally as high as 20 inches...
are possible in association with Frances.
Swells generated by Frances will be affecting portions of the
southeastern coast of the United States. These swells could cause
dangerous surf and rip currents.
Repeating the 2 PM AST position...23.8 N... 74.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...145
mph. Minimum central pressure...949 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM AST.
Forecaster Avila
2pm Frances-Winds remain 145 mph
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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