Ivan Advisories

[Big_Steve]

Yea my last taste of any serious tropical weather near my area of the GOM was TS Bill last June 2003. TS Bill for a TS was a pretty strong TS.


Big Steve
Biloxi, MS


End Of Message
09/02/04

[canegrl04]

CRAP This could be the 3rd major hurricane to strike the US this season.Hopefully not Florida.They have been picked on by the hurricane gods this year

[Roxy]

you guys know I'm clueless...so I think it'll go north.

[cycloneye]

That track will be very problematic for the islands and we will have to deal with Ivan first hopefully not a major cane.

[wlfpack81]

For those along the SE coast and GOM I wouldn't go ape crap yet with soon to be Ivan. It's still very far out and we need to get rid of Frances first. However, again given this storm is very far south it'll be able to stay along the outer edge of the ridge and those brisk e-lies aloft will definitely zip it along towards the Leewards. When the trough that picks up Frances crosses the Atlantic it could create enough weakness to drag Ivan a bit far north but being Ivan would be at such a low lat I'm thinking that it wouldn't be enough to totally make it into a fish as well all hope it'll be.

What do you all think?

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[NJCane]

I believe that after the trough takes Frances out, there is another deep trough coming in around the 12th give or take a few days. This was depicted on models I looked at a few days ago, so I am not sure if this is still the case?

[panichead4469]

haha, after frances rolls through, lets see all of these zealous south florida forecasters who have not stopped saying miami! miami! miami! fla! fla! fla! predict FLA on this one. It takes LOTS of conditions atmospherically to really slam a hurricane into southeastern florida...but we'll just have to "WAIT AND SEE"....

[cycloneye]

CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE 09L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 2

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 9.5 28.4 270./17.1
6 9.8 29.5 282./10.5
12 10.1 31.0 283./15.7
18 10.2 33.4 271./23.1
24 9.9 35.5 264./21.6
30 10.0 37.1 271./15.3
36 10.1 39.0 273./18.9
42 10.0 40.7 267./16.6
48 10.0 42.6 270./19.0
54 9.9 44.0 268./13.9
60 10.1 45.5 278./14.5
66 10.4 47.1 280./15.7
72 10.8 48.7 282./16.5
78 11.1 50.3 282./15.6
84 11.4 52.0 282./17.0
90 11.8 53.6 283./16.1
96 12.2 55.2 284./15.8
102 12.5 56.6 280./14.7
108 12.8 58.1 281./14.9
114 13.2 59.4 288./13.0
120 13.6 60.8 289./14.3
126 14.1 61.8 295./10.4

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE (AL092004) ON 20040903 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040903 0000 040903 1200 040904 0000 040904 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.7N 28.7W 9.6N 31.7W 9.5N 34.7W 9.7N 37.7W
BAMM 9.7N 28.7W 10.0N 31.9W 10.3N 35.2W 10.8N 38.6W
A98E 9.7N 28.7W 9.8N 31.2W 10.1N 34.1W 10.4N 36.9W
LBAR 9.7N 28.7W 9.7N 31.6W 9.6N 34.7W 9.6N 38.0W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040905 0000 040906 0000 040907 0000 040908 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.2N 40.5W 11.6N 46.5W 13.4N 53.1W 15.9N 58.9W
BAMM 11.3N 42.1W 12.4N 49.4W 13.3N 56.8W 14.4N 63.5W
A98E 10.6N 39.9W 11.9N 45.7W 13.0N 51.3W 14.4N 56.0W
LBAR 9.7N 41.6W 10.2N 49.7W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 48KTS 57KTS 64KTS 70KTS
DSHP 48KTS 57KTS 64KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.7N LONCUR = 28.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 9.7N LONM12 = 26.5W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 23.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

02/2300 UTC 9.8N 28.7W T2.0/2.0 09

Ivan will be born anytime soon!

[yoda]

I forsee a TS Ivan at 11... but we will see what NHC says.

[NJCane]

http://net-waves.com/weather/model.php
Two model ideas, one has the first trough missing and having no effect and the other camp has it being effected by the trough and taken NW

[abajan]

Scary stuff, man.

[Mike2002]

I can't seem to get the model on that website to show up. I just get a little red X. Something wrong with the site I am assuming. Do you have another link to something similar???

[NJCane]

Put in TD 9 and click Get Plots and let me know if that works
http://net-waves.com/weather/modelplot.htm

[Mike2002]

Yea that did it. Thanks alot.

[ncweatherwizard]

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /nine.html

This is really a preliminary forecast almost, particularly intensity wise. Since the pattern lately seems to be intensification, I'll go with it...assuming that the forward speed of the storm doesn't pick up and hinder this.

[paulvogel]

I dont think so. 60 kts at best and 12 n 54 west

[Hurricanehink]

Come on! We don't need this yet! Sadly, it is entirely plausible...