Frances Advisories

[lookout]

4 out of 5 global models support that track. The many models you are referring to are use the GFS intiial conditions, which again have the ridge well too weak. GFS is becoming totally worthless. I'll stick to the Navy, UKMET, CMC, and NASA

by the way, considering the latest model runs, so much for that supposed model agreement you were talking about with the cmc and nogaps.

[hurricane_lover]

This is true...... flooding may be the major concern here.

[PurdueWx80]

This is true...... flooding may be the major concern here.

but only in the Carolinas...right?

[flyingphish]

SHISHH..That was an advertising effort between Home Depot and the Weather Channel. Keep up the good work!

[MWatkins]

Despite the improved appearance of the convective pattern before 0345Z....the recon message thereafter suggests pressures are up near the center:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/URNT12.0409030437

This system could weaken a bit more in the next 24 hours...but could go either way from there.

MW

[yoda]

Hey Mike, with the trough in the GOM, and Frances stalling, could that trough come in and kick Frances north?

[hurricane_lover]

Of course it's weakening...... it's turning north.

[MWatkins]

This also suggests some shear in the upper levels...the warmest core is SSW of the center postion:

MAX FL TEMP 21C 227/13 NM FROM FL CNTR

And...interesting...no report of an eye.

L. NA
M. NA

MW

[Hurricane Cheese]

hmmm, has Frances had enough of our endless gauking about her?? At this rate she'll be a depression at landfall!!

[hurricane_lover]

yoda, I already said that earlier today. But i'm just a wishcaster.

[Anonymous]

It will be a category 4 at landfall. Do not be caught off guard. It is a fluctuation and 140 mph IS STILL expected.

[weatherlover427]

yoda, I already said that earlier today. But i'm just a wishcaster.

*saves this as an infamous quote*

[yoda]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[hurricane_lover]

Joshua, the funny part is, not only has evryone been attacking me for suggesting that this thing will turn north but they even call me a wishcaster, even though i'm in Miami.

HELLO, a wishcaster is someone who wishes it would come their way.

[Matthew5]

I think cat island is leveled to the ground with 20 feet of water. I don't think there is a island named cat island any more

[Hurricane Cheese]

I remember being on here before Hurricane Charley, and there was a thread entitled "Charley Blowing His Chance On History." Unfortunately, Charley was just beginning to unveal his violent mood, and intensified just before landfall to become one of the worst storms in recent memory.

Here with Frances, I think we've come to the same crossroads tonight. Is SHE blowing her chance to go down as one of the great storms? For FL's sake I hope so.


Other opinions of this? Will Frances now just be a "run of the mill" cane?

[Matthew5]

It appears to becoming more compacted I think if it keeps on reoreganizing by morning it might regain what it had lost.

[bahamaswx]

Cat Island is home to the highest point in the Bahamas. Mt. Alvernia--206ft. I doubt the island is underwater.

[yoda]

[quote="bahamaswx"]Cat Island is home to the highest point in the Bahamas. Mt. Alvernia--206ft. I doubt the island is underwater.[/quote

Well some parts probably are...

[clearwater]

Thanks for sharing a heartwarming story, MW. Amidst the frayed nerves, scuffles over d-batteries, and price gouging, it's nice to hear of a community pulling together.