Frances Advisories

[yzerfan]

There was also a big rush to the pumps earlier in the week because a lot of people wanted to top off their tanks by Tuesday. Reason- there was a $0.06/gallon gas tax rollback for Florida in the month of August, and people wanted to get the last of the slightly cheaper gas.

[LowMug]

Thank you for the update.

What update...these updates...especially shifting right are both annoying and dangerous to all of out here...they are misleading and based on nothing but a lack of knowledge and experience...

Enthusiasm and interest is great...posting false and misleading info is not

I shifted right like 30 miles...at 36 hours out.

lol...what made you decide to shift right 30 miles at 36 hours out...30 miles is of no consequence with a storm this size

[ROCK]

yeah, and the GFS shows Ivan to slam FL again....This has GOM / Mexico written on it. I dont trust the long range GFS when it cant even get Frances right 24hrs out...

[chakalakasp]

The state doesn't stockpile supplies of gasoline for this kind of contingency. How could they?<P>Nor does it stockpile plywood, batteries, and bottled water.

It's rather easy. You get a series of very large storage tanks and you fill them with a large amout of gasoline.

As is currently done on the national level in case of national emergency.

[x-y-no]

Thank you for the update.

What update...these updates...especially shifting right are both annoying and dangerous to all of out here...they are misleading and based on nothing but a lack of knowledge and experience...

Enthusiasm and interest is great...posting false and misleading info is not

Lay off already. This is an amateur meteorology board, not an official information outlet. Everyone knows, or ought to know, that the sources to rely on are the NHC and your local emergency officials.

I, for one, find all the more serious efforts at forecasting here educational, particularly when they offer some discussion of their reasoning. I don't feel like I have the skill yet to try my hand at it, but efforts like this encourage me that I might get to that point one day.

When and if I do start posting forecasts, I have my disclaimer all worked out. It goes something like this:

"This forecast is not an official product. It is published simply in an effort to improve my understanding and skill, and hopefully to be helpful to others in that same endeavor. If you gamble your life based on it, then you are a fool and are probably doing the gene pool a favor by eliminating yourself. And if you don't like it, you can [insert your favorite scatological phrase here]."

[HurricaneBill]

Do not write Frances off yet. It could still reintensify. I'm not saying Category 4 or 5 but maybe up to a strong 3.

Remember Hurricane Cleo in 1964?

Cleo was heading towards S Fla as a Category 1 with sustained winds of 80 mph. Only 8 hours from landfall, Cleo began to intensify. In the space of 8 hours, Cleo's sustained winds increased from 80 mph to 110 mph.

Thus, Cleo made landfall as a strong Category 2 instead of a weak Category 1.

Also, remember Claudette last year? She struggled pretty much like Frances, but once she got her act together, she quickly strengthened.

[chris_fit]

URNT12 KNHC 031728
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/1728Z
B. 25 DEG 36 MIN N
77 DEG 05 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2762 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 324 DEG 74 KT
G. 229 DEG 064 NM
H. 961 MB
I. 10 C/ 3069 M
J. 17 C/ 3082 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF984 2306A FRANCES OB 04
MAX FL WIND 74 KT SW QUAD 1709Z.


Looks even weaker believe it or not.

[x-y-no]

Still open, and the pressure is up to 961 ...

I'm still expecting her to get her act together again soon, though. At this point it's looking unlikely she could intensify past cat 3 before landfall, though.

[dennis1x1]

definitely not at 115mph now....probably below 100.....shear still evident and we could have a tropical storm in the next 24 hours...

[Hurricane Cheese]

Frances is a goner!!!


Time to start tracking Ivan!

[Guest]

"This forecast is not an official product. It is published simply in an effort to improve my understanding and skill, and hopefully to be helpful to others in that same endeavor. If you gamble your life based on it, then you are a fool and are probably doing the gene pool a favor by eliminating yourself. And if you don't like it, you can [insert your favorite scatological phrase here]."

Someone had to say and say it well you did.

[Amanzi]

Frances is a goner!!!


Time to start tracking Ivan!

She is NOT gone, everyone in the forecast cone needs to pay attention. Especially as she nears land. Please do not make light of a situation that could be dangerous for numerous users here on S2k.

[Anonymous]

a TS?
lol.

[Sanibel]

Frances continues to defy predictions. She's confirming the GFDL intensity forecast more and more. Her convection says otherwise.

How does a weaker storm react to steering currents?

[Air Force Met]

definitely not at 115mph now....probably below 100.....shear still evident and we could have a tropical storm in the next 24 hours...

961 MB is well within the cat 3 range. Alicia had 115 and she was at 963. Also...they haven't sampled all the winds yet on the east side. She is most certainly not below 100.

[CFL]

Seems like she's being sheared from dry air from the north. Wouldn't that just turn her west?

[Air Force Met]

Oooops...now it is moving WNW to W. So much for the new updated track. But...at least glad you finally gave up on the Carolinas track...that was getting a little embarrasing.

[dennis1x1]

shear and steering currents are 2 seperate things.....shear does not steer.

and the shear is coming from the west not north.

[george_r_1961]

I know I sound like a broken record here but the main threat here is FLOODING. Frances is a slow moving system and could dump 15-20 inches of rain along her path. Plus due to the alow motion hurricane conditions could last for a long time.

[Brent]

Those aren't the maximum winds. 961 mb supports a Cat 3. The weakest this, IMO, is 105-110 mph.