Skirting the coast

hurricane_lover · #1 Postby **hurricane_lover** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:10 am

Could this trough coming through cause her to skirt the coast?

newt3 · #2 Postby **newt3** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:12 am

I think she will do an about face and race south easteward.

Lover, you crack me up.

hurricane_lover · #3 Postby **hurricane_lover** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:14 am

I really dont understand whats so funny about that question. I swear most of you in Florida act like you want this hurricane to build back to a Cat 5 and hit your selected city.

I'm in Miami and dont want any part of it.

#4 Postby **wlfpack81** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:14 am

Possible if it's able to break through the ridge. We'll just have to wait and see. I have been looking at the WV imagery for the last few days and the 500mb height/wind analysis and it seems that the trough for the last day has still pretty much been just west of 90 deg W. So it hasn't moved much and it appears the ridging in the gulf just west of FL at the moment is holding on. We'll see if this trend continues or not.

newt3 · #5 Postby **newt3** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:20 am

Hurricane lover, I'm just picking at ya, that's all. I've been lurking for the last few days and have been seeing all the post that has been THE CAROLINAS oriented. I don't want anyone to have this freaking storm. Getting ready to build a house, and the cost of lumber is high enough, much less this thing coming in and causing even more rises. I appreciate all who post here and give myself some much needed info about these canes and there paths. Really, there is no telling where this thing might end up cause it looks nearly stalled to me.

calidoug · #6 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:26 am

There is no trough coming.

It looks like the storm is shearing further, with the low level circulation moving just N of W.

It's evident on radar out of Miami.

All the models take this into S-central FL.

This is not a carolina storm.

hurricane_lover · #7 Postby **hurricane_lover** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:43 am

calidoug,

I respectively disagree.

Tommedic · #8 Postby **Tommedic** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:51 am

If a person only used historical data, then a turn to north would be considered a good possibility due to the slowdown and meandering. However, we have more info that leads to more accurate theory. That is a Florida landfall. Though anything is possible at this point. IMHO

chakalakasp · #9 Postby **chakalakasp** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:04 am

hurricane_lover wrote:calidoug,

I respectively disagree.

Just think: maybe one day you'll tell us why. :Pick:

hurricane_lover · #10 Postby **hurricane_lover** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:07 am

I have, a million times.

siobhan222 · #11 Postby **siobhan222** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:09 am

Hurricane Lover, I'm in Palm Beach Gardens. The last thing I wish for is for the hurricane to hit us. I pray that it continues north and I'd truly love to put some faith in your predictions. Could I please ask you to explain why you believe it could go north and skirt the coast? I would welcome your explanations. I have read many wonderful messages from some excellent members of this forum who all explain their theories and put up with many of my stupid questions because I really know little. I would LOVE to hear your theory as to why this could miss us. Would you be so kind as to explain?

Thank you.

Siobhan in PBG

hurricane_lover · #12 Postby **hurricane_lover** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:13 am

trough
getting into deeper, warmer waters
getting off the islands
shear going away
history
skirts up the coast into a SC landfall

bahamaswx · #13 Postby **bahamaswx** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:17 am

Basically he thinks the trough will pick it up soon somehow (?) or Frances will magically plow through the ridge or something. Then the Beta effect pulls it northward. And all this because climo says so. Hell, he probably worships A98E and/or CLIPER.

hurricane_lover · #14 Postby **hurricane_lover** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:19 am

siobhan222 · #15 Postby **siobhan222** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 2:56 am

Thank you Hurricane Lover. Unfortunately, I'm beginning to feel Frances right now. Our power is flickering on and off. I'm petrified. I only hope you're right and she starts moving up the coast. But it seems either way, we're going to get some of the effects. Very very frightening here in Palm Beach Gardens.

Siobhan

#16 Postby **Cookiely** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 2:59 am

My aunt thinks that it will skirt the coast head north up to Georgia. Her prediction is based on the VIPER model (I think its a model) that is forecast on one of the local tv stations in Tampa. It was accurate in the projected path for Charley even to landfall.

weatherlover427 · #17 Postby **weatherlover427** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 3:23 am

hurricane_lover wrote:trough
getting into deeper, warmer waters
getting off the islands
shear going away
history
skirts up the coast into a SC landfall

OK I'll give you the history one. But how do the rest of them apply to this situation? :?:

hurricane_lover · #18 Postby **hurricane_lover** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 3:30 am

WHOA, 20,163 posts?

You da man.

LadyStorm · #19 Postby **LadyStorm** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 4:27 am

Our local mets were discussing this yesterday. It could be a worst case senario for the entire east coast of Florida, if she rides the coast north. They did not put much stock in it during the discussion, but said it was a possibility.

hurricane_lover wrote:Could this trough coming through cause her to skirt the coast?

Skirting the coast

Skirting the coast

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