2am 105 NW 6mph

c5Camille · #1 Postby **c5Camille** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:57 am

Hurricane Frances Intermediate Advisory Number 41a

Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on September 04, 2004

...Frances near Grand Bahama Island...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for the
northwestern Bahamas. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect from
north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect on the southern Florida
Peninsula from Bonita Beach to south of Florida City...and for the
middle and Upper Keys from south of Florida City to the Seven Mile
Bridge...and for Florida Bay.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida West Coast
from north of Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River.

At 2 am EDT...0600z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 26.4 north...longitude 78.0 west or about 45 miles
...70 km...east of Freeport Grand Bahama Island. This is
also about 135 miles east of West Palm Beach Florida.

Over the past several hours Frances has been moving toward the
northwest near 6 mph...9 km/hr. A return to a west-northwesterly
track is expected later this morning...although some erratic motion
can be expected as steering currents remain weak. On the forecast
track...the large core of Hurricane Frances will continue to move
slowly over the northwestern Bahamas overnight...and will be very
near the Florida East Coast by late Saturday.

Frances is a strong category two hurricane. Maximum sustained winds
are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher gusts. Frances is
expected to remain a borderline category two/three hurricane until
landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 110 miles...175 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb...28.38 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 5 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...
along with dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the eye
of Frances on the north side of Grand Bahama Island. Storm surge
flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels can be expected on
the west side of the other islands of the Bahamas. Coastal storm
surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...along with
large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to
the north of where the center makes landfall in Florida. Storm
surge flooding of 5 feet above normal levels is expected
in Lake Okeechobee. Along the southwest Florida coast...storm surge
flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide level can be expected.

Rainfall amounts of 7 to 12 inches...locally as high as 20 inches...
are possible in association with Frances over the Bahamas.

Swells generated by Frances are affecting portions of the
southeastern coast of the United States. These swells could cause
dangerous surf and rip currents.

Repeating the 2 am EDT position...26.4 N... 78.0 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 6 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 961 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Franklin

#2 Postby **Frank P** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:00 am

I think NW at 6 is being a little generous...... this thing is crawling at best....

bahamaswx · #3 Postby **bahamaswx** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:02 am

Not to mention 93kt flight lvl winds barely supports 100mph surface winds at best.

Kiern · #4 Postby **Kiern** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:02 am

How is it moving NW?

c5Camille · #5 Postby **c5Camille** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:02 am

i would agree. maybe it has more to do with the eye
being so broad and eratic... than with any real motion.

Website · #6 Postby **FritzPaul** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:03 am

I was expecting a nearly stationary report, but they are the experts so if they say so.

kevin · #7 Postby **kevin** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:03 am

Well at 11 o clock it was 26.1 77.8 and now it is 26.4 78.0... +.3 vs +.2

=) Hope that helps Kiern

hurricane_lover · #8 Postby **hurricane_lover** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:04 am

If she can get off those islands and get out of that shallow water, this thing still has the potential to move up the coast and restrengthen.

Still a dangerous hurricane, folks.

ColdFront77 · #9 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:05 am

Frank P wrote:I think NW at 6 is being a little generous...... this thing is crawling at best....

As I mentioned in another thread on Friday, if I am not mistaken, the speed it an average during the last 12 hours not what it moved in the last three hours.

There can and have certainly been with this and most tropical cyclones slight and more dramtic differences between 3-hour and 12-hour movements.

#10 Postby **ericinmia** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:07 am

At this point it is EXTREMELY difficult for even hurrican hunter p3's or c-130's to be able to pinpoint the center of circulation. They are probably giving their best guest-a-mation of where the center now is. I would not give this forecast that much emphasis. Wait until tomorrow morning around the 8am and 11am we then should be able to see what she is going to do. She should beging organizing and doing more then, than the comotose state she has been in the past 12+ hours.
-Eric

Anonymous · #11 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:09 am

Center is easy to spot.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

A HAIR northwest of that island. Run the loop slowly and youll see it. Or you could only show the first frame and the center is the convection that looks like a "backwards c".

mobilebay · #12 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:10 am

I thought when they say "it is moving" means present, not past. If it was what you was saying the quote would be "it was moving".

kevin · #13 Postby **kevin** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:12 am

Center is easy to spot. <<

Satellites are still in eclipse mode. Every night they go out for ~2 hours. Its 0612 right now and the last image is 0345

#14 Postby **AJC3** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:13 am

Kiern wrote:How is it moving NW?

Recon fixes since this morning (I know, I know, I used symbols for minutes/seconds instead of degrees/minutes)

03/1235 25'24"N 76'26"W 959MB OPEN SW-NE C40 MAX FL WIND 89KT SE QUAD 1042Z
03/1417 25'33"N 76'42"W 959MB OPEN E-SW C35 MAX FL WIND 105KT NW QUAD 1407Z
03/1728 25'36"N 77'05"W 961MB OPEN SW C20 MAX FL WIND 74KT SW QUAD 1709Z
03/1925 25'50"N 77'13"W 959MB NA NA MAX FL WIND 94KT NE QUAD 1811Z
03/2109 25'52"N 77'16"W 960MB NA NA MAX FL WIND 90KT NE QUAD 2055Z
03/2307 25'55"N 77'25"W 960MB NA NA MAX FL WIND 90KT NE QUAD 2055Z
04/0233 26'10"N 77'38"W 960MB NA NA MAX FL WIND 68KT SW QUAD 0216Z
04/0412 26'19"N 77'50"W 962MB NA NA MAX FL WIND 93KT NE QUAD 0242Z

bahamaswx · #15 Postby **bahamaswx** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:13 am

Hurricanes don't move along the pretty little straight lines your see on your TV. They wobble all the time. Taking a 2 frame wobble to the west when the overall motion for 6+ hours before that was NW and then saying the hurricane is moving westward wouldn't be very accurate.

Anonymous · #16 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:20 am

Satellites are still in eclipse mode. Every night they go out for ~2 hours. Its 0612 right now and the last image is 0345

Oh yea true, but even still its in that general area.

Website · #17 Postby **FritzPaul** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:22 am

Another interesting bit of data is the expansion of the wind fields. (P.S. I know wind fields spread out as the storm weakens since it cannot hold the stronger winds near the center) Just thought it was interesting the increase of the hurricane force wind field.

AL Chili Pepper · #18 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:23 am

She's inching her way toward Settlement Point in the Bahamas. Check out this graph:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?s ... pres&uom=E

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

#19 Postby **AJC3** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:27 am

Recon fixes since this morning (I know, I know, I used symbols for minutes/seconds instead of degrees/minutes)

03/1235 25'24"N 76'26"W 959MB OPEN SW-NE C40 MAX FL WIND 89KT SE QUAD 1042Z
03/1417 25'33"N 76'42"W 959MB OPEN E-SW C35 MAX FL WIND 105KT NW QUAD 1407Z
03/1728 25'36"N 77'05"W 961MB OPEN SW C20 MAX FL WIND 74KT SW QUAD 1709Z
03/1925 25'50"N 77'13"W 959MB NA NA MAX FL WIND 94KT NE QUAD 1811Z
03/2109 25'52"N 77'16"W 960MB NA NA MAX FL WIND 90KT NE QUAD 2055Z
03/2307 25'55"N 77'25"W 960MB NA NA MAX FL WIND 90KT NE QUAD 2055Z
04/0233 26'10"N 77'38"W 960MB NA NA MAX FL WIND 68KT SW QUAD 0216Z
04/0412 26'19"N 77'50"W 962MB NA NA MAX FL WIND 93KT NE QUAD 0242Z

04/0549 26'25"N 77'54"W 960MB NA NA MAX FL WIND 93KT NE QUAD 0242Z

#20 Postby **ericinmia** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:30 am

Here, this shows wave activiy:
http://www.oceanweather.com/data/SE-US/waveloop.html

By that graphic, the center should now be just offshore to the southeast of grand bahama island. If you plot the NHC cords... that is where they put it too.
-Eric

2am 105 NW 6mph

2am 105 NW 6mph

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