8pm Frances-Still 105 mph winds

[Brent]

Hurricane Frances Intermediate Advisory Number 44a

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on September 04, 2004

...Large hurricane drifting slowly toward Florida East Coast...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Grand
Bahama...abaco...bimimi and the Berry Islands.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should already have been completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of Flagler
Beach to Altamaha Sound.

A Hurricane Watch remain in effect from north of Flagler Beach to
Fernandina Beach.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida
Peninsula...on the West Coast...from St. Marks southward around the
southern end of the pennisula to just south of Florida City on the
southeast coast...and for the middle and Upper Keys from south of
Florida City to the Seven Mile Bridge...and for Florida Bay.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the Florida Panhandle
from west of St. Marks to Panama City.

At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the large eye of Hurricane Frances was located
by aircraft...radar and surface observations near latitude 27.0
north...longitude 79.4 west or about 50 miles east-northeast of
Palm Beach Florida.

Frances has been drifting slowly west-northwestward near 5 mph. A
slow west or west-northwestward motion is expected tonight. On
this track...the strongest winds surrounding the large eye of
Frances should reach the Florida East Coast in the next several
hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 75 miles...120 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 205 miles...335 km. Strong winds are already affecting the East
Coast of Florida and will be spreading inland...where warnings for
hurricane and tropical storm force winds have been issued.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb...28.08 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels can
still be possible on the west side of islands of the northern
Bahamas.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall
in Florida. Storm surge flooding of 5 feet above normal levels is
expected in Lake Okeechobee. Along the southwest Florida
coast...storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide
levels is expected south of the path of Frances.

Storm total rainfall amounts could reach 20 inches in the northwest
Bahamas. Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...with locally higher
amounts...to near 20 inches...are expected over the Florida
Peninsula in association with Frances.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of central and South
Florida tonight.

Swells generated by Frances are affecting portions of the
southeastern coast of the United States. These swells could cause
dangerous surf and rip currents.

Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...27.0 N... 79.4 W. Expected
movement...drifting west-northwestward. Maximum
sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 951 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM EDT.

[chris_fit]

I dont get it.

Have they not learned from Charley???

WTF?!?!?


*&(*

[bwstg]

Hurricane Frances Intermediate Advisory Number 44a

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on September 04, 2004

...Large hurricane drifting slowly toward Florida East Coast...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Grand
Bahama...abaco...bimimi and the Berry Islands.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should already have been completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of Flagler
Beach to Altamaha Sound.

A Hurricane Watch remain in effect from north of Flagler Beach to
Fernandina Beach.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida
Peninsula...on the West Coast...from St. Marks southward around the
southern end of the pennisula to just south of Florida City on the
southeast coast...and for the middle and Upper Keys from south of
Florida City to the Seven Mile Bridge...and for Florida Bay.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the Florida Panhandle
from west of St. Marks to Panama City.

At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the large eye of Hurricane Frances was located
by aircraft...radar and surface observations near latitude 27.0
north...longitude 79.4 west or about 50 miles east-northeast of
Palm Beach Florida.

Frances has been drifting slowly west-northwestward near 5 mph. A
slow west or west-northwestward motion is expected tonight. On
this track...the strongest winds surrounding the large eye of
Frances should reach the Florida East Coast in the next several
hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 75 miles...120 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 205 miles...335 km. Strong winds are already affecting the East
Coast of Florida and will be spreading inland...where warnings for
hurricane and tropical storm force winds have been issued.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb...28.08 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels can
still be possible on the west side of islands of the northern
Bahamas.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall
in Florida. Storm surge flooding of 5 feet above normal levels is
expected in Lake Okeechobee. Along the southwest Florida
coast...storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide
levels is expected south of the path of Frances.

Storm total rainfall amounts could reach 20 inches in the northwest
Bahamas. Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...with locally higher
amounts...to near 20 inches...are expected over the Florida
Peninsula in association with Frances.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of central and South
Florida tonight.

Swells generated by Frances are affecting portions of the
southeastern coast of the United States. These swells could cause
dangerous surf and rip currents.

Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...27.0 N... 79.4 W. Expected
movement...drifting west-northwestward. Maximum
sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 951 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM EDT.

wait a minute. Pressure drops but winds stay the same. I don't get it. I just heard 120

[lilbump3000]

I cant see how its still a Cat. 2. I mean with a pressure of 951 mb, Thats well into the Cat. 3 range.

[dhweather]

Well, they'll say folks should have been prepared for a cat 3/4, as that was predicted. ????

[jpigott]

i would understand no wind increase with slight pressure drop, but 9-11mb pressure drop no wind increase, makes no sense

[PurdueWx80]

Well, I'm assuming that since everyone had been expecting a Cat 3 or 4 two days ago, it may not be AS big a deal. Still - the winds can sometimes take a bit to respond to rapid pressure falls. If they don't update this at 11 p.m....they are absolutely and clinically insane. Flight level winds were up, but probably not enough for an upgrade in winds yet.

[canegrl04]

I guess they don't want to frighten the folks of Florida too much

[Derek Ortt]

this is as much 90KT as Charley was 95KT at the 11 a.m.

to those on the coast, we have a cat 3 based upon SFMR data

[lilbump3000]

Watch the 11 P.M. advisory the winds might jump all the way up to 125mph.

[Thunder44]

This probably TPC thinking. The vortex only reported 100kt winds at flight level. This would equate to 90 kt winds at the surface despite the pressure, winds may have not met with the pressure yet.

[Innotech]

pressure drops, and then winds rise. Isnt that usually hte case? around 11 pm ET look for a significant rise in winds. Otherwise this is a bizarre storm. (which it is already)

[ldelatorre]

Maybe they'll pull an Andrew and 12 years later revise the category to 3.

[Brent]

USUALLY the pressure drops and THEN the winds respond.

[dhweather]

I suspect the NHC crew is punch drunk as well.

[tronbunny]

this is as much 90KT as Charley was 95KT at the 11 a.m.

to those on the coast, we have a cat 3 based upon SFMR data

Derek,

This is truly alarming that they have not made this observation public.
There are still many who have let their guard down.
I have spoken with many ...
lots of "oh, it's only a category 2 and it will fall apart as soon as it hits land, all hurricanes do, so the inland areas will be fine."

[SouthernWx]

I hate to be critical, but this is ridiculous.....the NOAA plane measured 132 mph winds at flight level over three hours ago....that equates to 115-120 at the surface......

This is a major hurricane folks....I don't care what NHC says. This hurricane is deepening rapidly over the Gulf Stream and I just hope coastal residents are prepared. IMO this is going to be a full-scale disaster

[Brent]

I hate to be critical, but this is ridiculous.....the NOAA plane measured 132 mph winds at flight level over three hours ago....that equates to 115-120 at the surface......

This is a major hurricane folks....I don't care what NHC says. This hurricane is deepening rapidly over the Gulf Stream and I just hope coastal residents are prepared. IMO this is going to be a full-scale disaster

Where's that vortex message Perry(with the 132 mph winds?)

[Guest]

Winds have not had time to respond to pressure drop, its a normal process

[Matthew5]

Damn it is forming Yellow around the eye! It is pulling a lost moment bombing.