11pm Ivan-70 mph winds, 991 mb pressure

[Brent]

Up to 115 mph in 96 hours and then down to 75 mph after hitting Hispanola.

Tropical Storm Ivan Forecast/Advisory Number 10

Statement as of 03:00Z on September 05, 2004

tropical storm center located near 9.4n 42.2w at 05/0300z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the west or 275 degrees at 16 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 991 mb
Max sustained winds 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.
50 kt....... 30ne 30se 30sw 30nw.
34 kt....... 90ne 100se 60sw 90nw.
12 ft seas..100ne 100se 100sw 100nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 9.4n 42.2w at 05/0300z
at 05/0000z center was located near 9.3n 41.4w

forecast valid 05/1200z 9.8n 44.7w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 90sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 06/0000z 10.7n 48.2w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 90sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 06/1200z 11.8n 51.5w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 30se 30sw 30nw.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 100sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 07/0000z 12.7n 55.1w
Max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 100sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 08/0000z 14.5n 61.5w
Max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.
34 kt...110ne 110se 110sw 110nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 09/0000z 16.5n 67.0w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.

Outlook valid 10/0000z 20.0n 72.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 9.4n 42.2w

next advisory at 05/0900z

forecaster Beven

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Ivan Advisory Number 10

Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on September 04, 2004

...Ivan continuing quickly westward...nearing hurricane intensity...

at 11 PM AST...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Ivan was located
near latitude 9.4 north...longitude 42.2 west or about 1355
miles...2175 km...east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.

Ivan is moving toward the west near 18 mph...30 km/hr...and a
gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next
24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph...110
km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast
during the next 24 hours...and Ivan will likely become a hurricane
on Sunday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
...185 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb...29.26 inches.

Repeating the 11 PM AST position... 9.4 N... 42.2 W. Movement
toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 991 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am AST.

Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Ivan Discussion Number 10

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 04, 2004

Ivan continues to become better organized...with a curved cold
convective band to the east of a warm spot that is not yet
deserving of being called an eye. Satellite intensity estimates
are 77 kt from AFWA and 65 kt from TAFB and SAB. However...an
SSM/I overpass at 0005z did not show an eye or even that good of
convective banding. Therefore...the system will remain a tropical
storm at this time with an initial intensity of 60 kt.
The initial motion is 275/16. Ivan remains on the south side of a
strong subtropical ridge...and this should likely continue for the
next 3-4 days. By day 5...the cyclone will be nearing a forecast
weakness in the ridge. This pattern should allow a generally west-
northwestward motion for the next 3-4 days...followed by a gradual
more northerly turn. Track guidance is unusually well clustered
even out to day five...calling for Ivan to move west-northwestward
through the central Lesser Antilles in about 72 hr and then pass
over Hispaniola between 96-120 hr. The new forecast track follows
the middle of this guidance suite and is basically an update of the
previous package.
Large-scale guidance predicts light vertical shear for the next 3-4
days...so there is no obvious reason why Ivan should not gradually
intensify. The intensity forecast follows this philosophy. With
the forecast track taking the storm over Hispaniola between 96-120
hr...the forecast intensity is considerably reduced. There is also
some uncertainty of whether the shear will remain favorable after
96 hr...as the GFS and NOGAPS develop an upper-level trough over
the Bahamas by 120 hr.

As noted earlier...because of the typical track forecast errors at 5
days...the center could easily pass south...or north...of the
island of Hispaniola.

Forecaster Beven

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 05/0300z 9.4n 42.2w 60 kt
12hr VT 05/1200z 9.8n 44.7w 65 kt
24hr VT 06/0000z 10.7n 48.2w 70 kt
36hr VT 06/1200z 11.8n 51.5w 75 kt
48hr VT 07/0000z 12.7n 55.1w 80 kt
72hr VT 08/0000z 14.5n 61.5w 90 kt
96hr VT 09/0000z 16.5n 67.0w 100 kt
120hr VT 10/0000z 20.0n 72.0w 65 kt

[canegrl04]

We all know how reliable NHC intensity predictions are

[air360]

ok, so say Ivan does get the crap knocked out of it and is down to 75...Hurricanes are CRAZY and it can be a CAT 5 a few hours after getting back over open warm water... (not a prediction..just an example)
...just trying to keep all possibilities open...