Haiti Won't Be Able to Handle Ivan ...

[BReb]

Haiti has been almost completed denuded of trees, used for making charcoal which is sold by poor people. The mudslides that would result from an Ivan strike alone would be devastating. I'm thinking this may be a tragedy that far exceeds Mitch. This one strikes me as really ominous.

[lilbump3000]

I mean with a Cat. 3 storm all the way out in the atlantic and theres still plenty of warm water and favorable conditions to work with, this might become our first Cat. 5 of the season.

[canegrl04]

Steve Lyons said from the get go that Ivan could become a cat 5,and I believe its true

[wnknisely]

Thanks BReb. That's a great observation. Let's pray it doesn't come to this.

I wonder if other people have noticed the danger, and will people be able to start mobilizing help in time should Haiti ultimately be threatened...

[Brent]

Didn't Gordon in 1994 killed thousands in Haiti and it was only a Cat 1?

Some of ya'll may remember that tropical wave back in May that killed hundreds too. A TROPICAL WAVE!

One saving grace will be it's fast motion. If it were to stall or move slowly, it'd be MUCH MUCH MUCH worse.

[frankthetank]

I just came across a really nice high resolution shot of IVAN...great photo...big file, beware--thats the ORinco River coming off SA..

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/real ... 0.250m.jpg

[x-y-no]

Jesus that's a big image ...

I think I see two guys in a rowboat just southwest of him ...

[jimbo]

awesome site frank!!!!!!!

[WXBUFFJIM]

To see a major hurricane over Haiti, that's the last thing they need.

Jim

[CaluWxBill]

Cat 5 before it reaches the islands I think, It seems to be in a very good environment, as it reaches a latituted of greater than 12 it could strengthen rapidly, even more so, than it already has. Hopefully it will not be Cat 5 if and when it hits Haiti, that would be catastrophic indeed. I don't even know, if anybody would even want to go to Haiti to help out, it would severely demoralize most people.

[Derek Ortt]

Haiti actually tends to fare better in significant hurricanes than they do with the weaker systems. Georges only kjilled about a hundred in haiti, while Gordon, a TS, killed 1,100. This should remain south of haiti, though that will mean severe flooding there

[donsutherland1]

Unfortunately, I believe that Hurricane Ivan has a strong chance at crashing ashore on Hispaniola, and probably across Haiti.

At this point in time, I'm thinking that Ivan could take a track that somewhat resembles that of Hurricane David perhaps a little to the south:

<img src="http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1979/DAVID/track.gif">

For now, I'm thinking Hispaniola and possibly Cuba will be early landfall possibilities. It's too soon for me to speculate whether Florida or the Gulf of Mexico then sees Ivan, though with a track somewhat to the south and west of David's, odds might lean toward the Gulf of Mexico and perhaps Florida Keys.

At this time, given its environment, I believe Ivan will continue to strengthen. It has been traversing almost 30°C waters, so there was little reason it should not have been strengthening given the lack of land in the region through it is passing.

Remember, although no hurricane has been as strong as Ivan at such a low latitude, some even stronger have passed approximately 3° to the north, so the idea that it could become as strong as it is at its current latitude is not entirely far-fetched. Based on the environmental conditions in the region through which it is passing and historic experience of some strong hurricanes that passed somewhat to the north, I believe that Ivan could continue to strengthen for the time being, especially if it begins to slow its forward motion.

[Brent]

Haiti actually tends to fare better in significant hurricanes than they do with the weaker systems. Georges only kjilled about a hundred in haiti, while Gordon, a TS, killed 1,100. This should remain south of haiti, though that will mean severe flooding there

I'm thinking that too. It's way down at 10 N right now. I'm leaning towards a position near Jamaica, The Cayman Islands, or Cuba in 5 days.

[CaluWxBill]

waiting for 12z ensemble products to come out, but here is the 00z

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... 090500.gif

[CaluWxBill]

I wish I could get the ECMWF products. The GFS/GFDL products both act on very similar initialization, but the ECMWF can handle synoptic patterns better in many cases, plus it has 51 ensemble. so it gives you a much better statistical look at strike probabilities. any NCEP employees here, who may have access?

[CaluWxBill]

12z ensembles in for IVAN

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... 090512.gif

[MBryant]

Interesting...the mean path is south of the probable path...

[CourierPR]

Forecasters at the NHC do a great of examining all the available data and producing a sound forecast track.

[PurdueWx80]

That tropical system in May killed over 2000 people....not hundreds. Any land that Ivan hits will be in big trouble if it's a major hurricane at the time. I guess the mountainous islands would have it worse as that's where the terrain can force so much more orographic lifting (rainfaill).

[donsutherland1]

Just a quick note:

Ivan's maximum sustained winds have increased to 125 mph. His central pressure has fallen to 950 mb from 960 mb between 2 pm and 5 pm. Historically, a fairly large number of storms that have seen a 10 mb or greater fall in the central pressure over such a short period of time, especially when under 970 mb, have gone on to become Category 4 or stronger storms. I expect Ivan to be no exception.