Tampa Bay area residents....please read this

[SouthernWx]

Just a heads up from someone who's spent three decades researching Florida hurricanes of the past....

I won't be shocked to see hurricane conditions spread into the area around Tampa Bay (from Bradenton to Bayport) as Frances tracks over Tampa Bay into the Gulf of Mexico....because there are radar indications and surface obs the hurricane is already beginning to strengthen...

Vandenberg field in eastern Hillsborough county is reporting a pressure of 28.90"/ 978.7 mb at 4 p.m....and still falling as the center of Frances was east of them near the Hillsborough/ Polk county life. This pressure is lower than the 2 p.m. advisory report from NHC (980 mb)...

My concerns.....the inflow into Frances center is coming over very warm Tampa Bay. Frances is a large hurricane in size, and much of the circulation is over the GOM and Atlantic....why Frances's central pressure is still very low.

I'm not telling NHC to issue a hurricane warning from Sarasota to Cedar Key...but if I were the forecaster on duty, I would. I saw downgraded hurricane Bonnie (1998) begin regenerating before reaching the Atlantic coast and the result was unexpected 80-100 mph wind gusts in southeastern Virginia around Chesapeake Bay....I'm afraid the same thing may happen in the next several hours across west-central Florida......so please be alert for winds much higher than tropical storm force..

[donsutherland1]

Perry,

Very interesting post. The pressure that you noted is below the 2pm NHC report for Frances. Interestingly enough, at 4 pm, Tampa's pressure was just above the NHC pressure for Frances: 28.98 (981.2 mb).

Either Frances is beginning to regenerate as it heads for the GOM or it is somewhat stronger than reported.

Hopefully, residents in the Tampa area are prepared.

[NateFLA]

Intresting... I hope not.

I still have not had sustained winds at any point in my neighborhood. We will have breif intense gusts to about 45-50mph I would say, but that is it. Still raining slowly but surely.

[Anonymous]

Frances has always looked good over land, much better than Charley looked after exiting the Florida coast. Also of note, when the center passes offshore, those INTENSE rainbands offshore of Florida's east coast right now will begin pushing in. Looking at the GRW88Level3 radar, those offshore rainbands are relentless. This could turn into a huge flooding event.

[Sanibel]

Her SW quadrant structure has markedly improved. Probably the shear finally abating.

She's sent strong gusts down here...

[scogor]

Perry:

The Hurricane Warning issued for AnnaMaria Island to Destin bears out your onpoint analyses of the situation. What effect will the intensification have on us here in Sarasota? More of the same or worse?

[SouthernWx]

Perry:

The Hurricane Warning issued for AnnaMaria Island to Destin bears out your onpoint analyses of the situation. What effect will the intensification have on us here in Sarasota? More of the same or worse?

Your area will be on the weaker side of the circulation...so I expect less wind less than hurricane force, at least sustained winds...

Maybe I have some good news for all of west central Florida.....since I posted the first message 2 hours ago, Frances has shown signs of weakening...maybe the affects of friction have finally weakened the core to the point that Tampa Bay won't experience hurricane conditions. Saying that, if I lived there, especially along the shores of Tampa Bay and beachfronts from Manatee county to Cedar Key, I'd be alert just in case the intensification trend seen earlier begins again.

[OtherHD]

I'm worried about a possible surge building up into the bay after she passes. The WSW return flow would put it (Tampa Bay) in an ideal position for some surge related flooding. Thoughts?

[scogor]

Thanks Perry. Getting a nice downpour now. Expect more bands throughout the night and into the morning.

[Aquawind]

The wind is blowing pretty good yet this evening..and yes it looks like the Gulf wrap around might bring us some good rain yet..something we haven't seen much of so far..

[cape_escape]

The wind is blowing pretty good yet this evening..and yes it looks like the Gulf wrap around might bring us some good rain yet..something we haven't seen much of so far..

Here in Cape Coral we are having more wind than we have the whole time! The people on the other side of our street are without power now, we're hoping ot keep ours! Dang...I thought Frances was leaving!!!

[HurricaneQueen]

Same here in N. Naples. This is the most wind we have had since the onset of Frances. That must be why the tropical storm warnings were left in place for the SW coast of FL. Still have electricity so far. .Of course, we bought a generator after Charley and finally found some gas for the cans we had to borrow (there are none to be found anywhere in Naples or Bonita.).

[NateFLA]

What happened. On battery backup but things have quieted down considerably. Did she die before GOM?

[Brent]

What happened. On battery backup but things have quieted down considerably. Did she die before GOM?

Passed right over Tampa about 4 hours ago. ???

[SouthernWx]

Fortunately for residents of the Florida west coast, Frances inner core apparently collapsed over eastern Hillsborough county...about the same time the turn to the northwest began that has continued....with the now weakened center of circulation moving NW just offshore Hernando county...

With this unexpected development (core collapse), I don't foresee much strengthening before landfall....Frances might get wrapped tightly enough to reach cat-1 (75-85 mph), but won't surprise me if Frances remains below hurricane intensity to landfall (in the Apalachicola to Carrabelle area).

[Cookiely]

SouthernWx you were right, its gotten worse. Woke up this morning to the worse wind we have had to date. Its starting to flood. I thought Frances had become a hurricane again and had returned while I was sleeping.

[clearwater]

Cookiely, I thought the same thing (that she had intensified and returned while I was asleep).

Local news is reporting as much as two inches of rain per hour, roads that were open have closed (including causeway/60), and flooding reported in a number of areas.

But bless the workers, we have electric again (we lost power at about noon).

[Cookiely]

I know that Tampa is going to have major flooding if this keeps up through tomorrow as they forecasted yesterday. My mama is going to cry this morning. Her garden has to be damaged. She was really upset yesterday when a large limb fell on her okra. She's worked so hard on some of those eggplants, they are five feet high.