Ivan #4...NW Carib./110kts in 120 hours, aiming toward GOM

#1 Postby **ncweatherwizard** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:54 pm

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /ivan.html

Finally back to work from the mountains (nice place to spend a weekend though).

Pretty much in agreement with guidance; still need to get a grasp on forward speed and intensity however.

jwcaneme · #2 Postby **jwcaneme** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:08 pm

NC, nice deck on shear/dry air entrainment impacts. Thanks for posting your research and will definitely help when looking at the shear maps. Very much appreciated.

calidoug · #3 Postby **calidoug** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:13 pm

GOM? Is that a city on the NC coast?

lilbump3000 · #4 Postby **lilbump3000** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:13 pm

Calidoug child, GOM means Gulf Of Mexico.

#5 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:14 pm

calidoug wrote:GOM? Is that a city on the NC coast?

lol oh stop that

<RICKY>

#6 Postby **ncweatherwizard** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:21 pm

jwcaneme wrote:NC, nice deck on shear/dry air entrainment impacts. Thanks for posting your research and will definitely help when looking at the shear maps. Very much appreciated.

Thanks. Still got a ways to go with that. Vertical shear and SSTs are quite evidently needed to be factored in badly...shown by this year's storms alone. Seems that the intensification due to warmer SSTs (or possibly the depth rather) is underestimated, and the hinderance of intensification due to vertical shear is nearly ignored. So really, this model works best with external vert shear about 10kts or less and with SSTs about 28 Celsius roughly. I'll be working on this more, and hopefully will release more this winter.

Innotech · #7 Postby **Innotech** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:31 pm

lilbump3000 wrote:Calidoug child, GOM means Gulf Of Mexico.

he was joking...

Ivan #4...NW Carib./110kts in 120 hours, aiming toward GOM

Ivan #4...NW Carib./110kts in 120 hours, aiming toward GOM

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