11am advisory-90 mph gusts at Barbados

[Brent]

WOW... I'm a bit surprised.

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 21

Statement as of 11:00 am AST on September 07, 2004

...Powerful Hurricane Ivan reaching the Windward Islands...nearing
Tobago...wind gusts to 90 mph in Barbados...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Trinidad...Tobago...St.
Vincent...The Grenadines...and Grenada and its dependencies.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Barbados...Martinique...
and St. Lucia.

At 11 am AST...1500z...the government of the Netherlands Antilles
has issued a Hurricane Watch for Bonaire...Curacao and Aruba.

Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of Ivan.

At 11 am AST...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 11.8 north...longitude 60.2 west or about 45 miles... 75
km...northeast of Tobago.

Ivan is moving toward the west near 18 mph ...30 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue today over the eastern Caribbean
Sea.

Ivan is a dangerous category three hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson
hurricane scale with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph...185
km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during
the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb...28.44 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near and to the right of where the center passes through the
Windward Islands.

Rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing flash floods
and mud slides...can be expected as Ivan passes through the
Windward Islands.

Repeating the 11 am AST position...11.8 N... 60.2 W. Movement
toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...115 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 963 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
AST.

[Anonymous]

See.. People should not be surprised. This is an extremely dangerous MAJOR hurricane.

[btsgmdad]

Given how far Barbados is from the eye wouldn't that indicate that we may have a stronger storm out there?

[Matthew5]

The wind field must be larger then I thought???

[Anonymous]

[/list]

[skysummit]

Wouldn't that be like if Ivan would be hitting the New Orleans area right now, Mobile would be getting near 90mph gusts? WOW

[btsgmdad]

Isn't that Barbados up in the upper right part of the yellow wind field?

[Brent]

Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 21

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 07, 2004

latest information from the reconnaissance plane earlier this
morning indicated that the minimum pressure was 963 mb and the peak
wind at flight level was 116 knots. Initial intensity has been
increased to 100 knots. This is also supported by satellite
intensity estimates of 102 knots from from both TAFB and SAB.
Currently...the outflow is fair in all quadrants but a large-upper
low in central Caribbean may induce some shear over the hurricane.
This is also indicated by analyses from the University of Wisconsin
that shows a 20-knot southerly shear ahead of the hurricane...which
could halt intensification in the short term. However...most of the
global models ultimately move the upper-low westward leaving a more
favorable upper-level environment for the hurricane to strengthen
as indicated in the official forecast. Ivan is a powerful hurricane
which is forecast to be in the northwestern Caribbean in five days.
Ivan is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 16 knots. The
hurricane is south a rather strong subtropical ridge which is
steering the hurricane westward. In time...a large mid to upper
level trough is expected to develop over the central United States
and the Gulf of Mexico. This trough is forecast to erode the ridge
allowing the hurricane to move more toward the west-northwest and
northwest with a decrease in forward speed by the end of the
forecast period. How far north the hurricane will move depends on
the intensity of trough over the Gulf of Mexico...and this varies
with models. The official forecast has been shifted southward a
little bit at the end of the forecast period...to be in better
agreement with the GFDL and the FSU superensemble.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 07/1500z 11.8n 60.2w 100 kt
12hr VT 08/0000z 12.3n 62.5w 105 kt
24hr VT 08/1200z 13.0n 65.6w 110 kt
36hr VT 09/0000z 14.0n 68.5w 115 kt
48hr VT 09/1200z 15.0n 71.5w 120 kt
72hr VT 10/1200z 17.5n 76.0w 120 kt
96hr VT 11/1200z 19.5n 80.0w 120 kt
120hr VT 12/1200z 22.0n 83.0w 120 kt