Ivan Advisories

[GABE]

http://www.skeetobite.com/FLHurricane/i ... escale.gif

[dhweather]

Very sad.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

[x-y-no]

What the heck? The vortex message page suddenly reverted to an old message from 1110Z?

Does anyone have another source for up-to-date recon messages than the NHC site? Their updating is screwy.

[Josephine96]

WTNT34 KNHC 081753
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST WED SEP 08 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN EXPECTED TO PASS JUST NORTH OF
BONAIRE...CURACAO AND ARUBA LATER TODAY...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO...

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF
HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...
INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO
PEDERNALES.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...165
KM...NORTHEAST OF BONAIRE AND ABOUT 740 MILES...1190 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF ARUBA...
BONAIRE...AND CURACAO LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THOSE
ISLANDS.

IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

Those would be some quick fluctutations

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
PLANE WAS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...13.1 N... 67.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

[jal]

With that kind of cone, how can you be wrong? In fact, why not just finish it off and cover central america as well? You want to be accurate right?

[Anonymous]

By chance, IvanHo, may divert sharply NE and avoid Fla all together and be a FISH...stranger things have happened.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

[dhweather]

J - that was in the 11AM as well, don't know if they anticipated an ERC, shear, or what.

[HollynLA]

Carolinas!!

Fine by me! They can have it....... now someone needs to let Ivan in on this.

[latemodel25]

yeah! where do you think it will go?

[wxwatcher2]

Josephine96,
the home owners are cleaning up but
the debris is still sitting alongside the
streets.
What a mess.

[BReb]

"where would it go then? East coast of FL?"

Bahamas then out to sea. Like the GFS and BAMM have been saying for a while now.

[canegrl04]

Holy crap I say cat 5 by tonight,too.

[BReb]

"where would it go then? East coast of FL?"

Bahamas then out to sea. Like the GFS and BAMM have been saying for a while now.

[Dean4Storms]

This looks very ominous for me and mine, but it does make sense with the current weather synopsis. I regretfully have to agree with them!

[Josephine96]

Me neither.. Hope it's just a typo

[TazzyD]

[Brent]

Should see a Hurricane Watch for Jamaica later today. Projected to hit Friday.

[shaner]

How to help...:
Red Cross - stipulate that your money be sent to Grenada
For New Yorkers who wants to offer any kind of help, they can carry any donations of anything to Square Deal shippers at Church Avenue and East 45th Street Brooklyn, in care of GM shipping

Relief operations for Grenada on Trinidad are being coordinated by The Trinidad and Tobago National Emergency Management Agency and the collection point is Shed #10, Port of Spain Docks, Port of Spain by Friday 2004 Sept. 10 at Noon.
For those of you in Toronto who want to send items to Grenada, Arlene Taylor is organizing a shipment of a container. E-mail: arlktaylor@yahoo.com

taken from http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2004/grenada.shtml