Ivan Advisories

[Brent]

Yes it does look that way.

[HurricaneGirl]

http://community.webshots.com/user/hurricanegirl

This was e-mailed to me today. Go into my Storm Clouds album and you'll see the track picture. Click on it to make it larger.

[LaBreeze]

Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 8, 2004 2:13 p.m.


As of 2 p.m. EDT, Tropical Depression Frances is located over southwestern Virginia. Frances is moving slowly toward the north-northeast at about 10 mph. An upper-level system will cause Frances to pick up forward speed to the north-northeast tomorrow. Heavy rainfall and bands of severe weather will continue to be the main problems with this system, from the Carolinas northward into Pennsylvania today, and eventually farther north into New York state and even New England.

Hurricane Ivan is a dangerous Category 4 hurricane. As of 2 p.m. EDT, Ivan was centered at 13.1 north, 67.0 west, or about 740 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Ivan is moving west-northwestward at 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 140 mph. The central pressure in Ivan is 949 millibars or 28.02 inches. We expect Ivan to continue on a west-northwest course for the next 2-3 days, bringing the hurricane just north of The Dutch Netherland Antilles today and over or close to Jamaica on Friday. Ivan will probably undergo fluctuations, and there is a concern this hurricane could become a very dangerous Category 5 hurricane. The track that Ivan takes past the end of the week is very uncertain. Model output is showing a gradual turn to the northwest and then to the north toward Florida Sunday. However, this far out we cannot be sure of the future track of late in the weekend or early next week. All interests in the northern and northwest Caribbean, as well as all interests in the Gulf of Mexico, should keep a close eye on Ivan.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, we have a tropical wave along 30 west, and about 15 north, east of the Cape Verde Islands, moving west. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, along 41 west, south of 17 north, moving west. There is a tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula, moving westward.

Check out the last sentence.

[PurdueWx80]

What an eye!!! I agree - I keep waiting for another recon report to confirm a huge pressure drop but there is nothing yet. The outflow on the west is no longer constricted whatsoever, and in fact, the flow around the upper low indicates the stream ahead of Ivan is becoming even more conducive to a continued W-WNW motion.

[andrew_the_beast]

I say CAT 5 by 8 pm advisory.

http://intellicast.com/Local/USNational ... e&pid=none

[wxwatcher2]

I think Ivan is going to Jamaica.
Then Cuba
Then S. Fla

Perhaps a pause in margaritaville

[x-y-no]

Yes he's looking quite frightening. There's no doubt in my mind he's intensified over the last few hours, and since he didn't have that far to go I think you're probably right.

[Josephine96]

I'm going borderline Cat 5 at 5.. and Cat 5 by 11.. This is a classic hurricane

[ColinD]

I'll bet we won't see a cat 5 today. Maybe in the NW Caribbean in a few days. (This is a recording)

[Josephine96]

Now that would make us dizzy lol

[rtd2]

Qoute" Can you say Category 5.. or at least close to it.. "






UHM not quite....I would say It needs ATLEAST another 28-30 MB drop and that will take Quite a bit of deepening.... Thats why so few Make it.... BUT it looks as IVAN is on its way! remember GRANDDADDY Gilbert (1988) was in this area when its Pressure dropped like 15 MB in a couple HRS. and we know it eventually set a record (atlantic) at 888mb!
while Ivan looks very strong ...strongest altlantic storm I've seen this year -IMHO- I will hold off on thinking it will reach CAT 5 status tohold to predict at this time

[Possum Trot]

I just got goosebumps looking at that thing.

[x-y-no]

PurdueWx80:

Is there any other source for vortex messages than the NHC site? One that's a little better about updating? Earlier today, they were going backwards ... :-/

[Josephine96]

NHC won't necessarily jump the gun and call it a Category 5

[tallbunch]

What day next week?

[ColinD]

I'll go so far as to say Ivan will be weaker in 24 hours than it is right now with the drop in ssts right in front of it. It's real warm west of Jamaica though a lot of shear there right now.

[chris_fit]

sun/mon

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I guess that depends on where you are?? Are you talking "you " in general??

[Josephine96]

He could weaken.. or plow right through those cooler waters..

[Josephine96]

Monday or early Tuesday..