Ivan Advisories

[yoda]

Hehe.. DUH!!! Sorry, was a bit dumb there for a minute.. thanks guys and gals!

[x-y-no]

What fish nonsense? At the very least, he's going to hit Cuba. Almost certainly Jamaica at least real close.

[Jevo]

THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS IMPRESSIVE AND WELL-ESTABLISHED
...AND IF ANYTHING...WILL ONLY GET BETTER FOR THE NEXT 72-96 HOURS.
THEREFORE...THE FUTURE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY INNER-
CORE CONVECTIVE CHANGES AND LAND INTERACTION SINCE TH WATER AHEAD OF
IVAN IS ONLY FORECAST TO GET WARMER...AS WARM AS 30C SOUTH OF CUBA
AND OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS

Very Ominous

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

DATE/TIME     LAT     LON    CLASSIFICATION    STORM
  09/1145 UTC    14.2N   70.6W    T6.5/7.0        IVAN  --  Atlantic Ocean

[canegrl04]

[rockyman]

OK...here we go...maybe we need a standard definition of fish...I meant fish for the United States...that is not to say in the slightest that Jamaicans or Cubans are lesser people or that their lives are any less valuable. The BAMM and BAMD for 06z were showing Ivan missing Florida to the southeast.

[Pebbles]

This was a great topic...thanks for bringing it up and the explainations to go along with it...the statistics are great!!

[lilwina]

What are they expecting to turn Ivan towards Florida and not into the GOM? Also, does anyone know what J. Bastardi's opinions on this storm are. I hate that his posts are not available to the general public anymore.

[Pebbles]

yes Jevo.. I agree

[alicia-w]

Not to belabor the point, but this thing is already not a fish considering the landfall made in Grenada and the subsequent damage and loss of life there.

[rockyman]

Without quoting JB, let's just say that he disagrees with the Florida landfall and is still projecting a central Gomex hit as the most likely choice.

[cycloneye]

This sat estimate may be conservative.

[vbhoutex]

Hurricane Ivan has become an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE overnight. Currently located at lat 14.2N, lon. 70.7W Hurricane Ivan's winds are sustained in the 160-165mph range with gusts possibly in the 200 mph range. Currently Ivan is moving WNW at around 15 mph and is expected to continue on this track and speed for the next 24 hours. This will bring the Hurricane close to Jamaica. Hurricane watches currently in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands will likely be changed to Hurricane warnings later today. Tropical Storm watches in effect in the Dominican Republic may also be upgraded to Tropical Storm warnings later today. All interests in the Caribbean must remember that IVAN IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS and is heading into an area that might allow even more strengthening before he encounters any land which could weaken him. Further down the road most guidance suggests another possible landfall somewhere in Florida sometime early next week. Although Ivan will have probably crossed enough landmass to weaken him prior to any POSSIBLE landfall in the Southern Florida area it is entirely possible that he could still be a Category 3 or stronger storm. All interests in the Northwest Carribean who are in areas under Hurricane watch should be rushing preparations to protect life and property to completion and all others in Florida and all areas of the Central and Eastern Gulf of Mexico coasts should be closely monitoring Ivan's progress.

Tropical depression Frances is located about 100 miles Southwest of Buffalo, New York and is moving North around 25 mph. Frances is generating copius rains and flooding over large areas of the Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Tune to your local weather source for details of effects expected for your area.

Tropical depression 10 has formed in the Eastern Atlantic and is moving NE and is a threat only to shipping at this time.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic tropical basin no tropical storm development is expected through Friday.

This is not an official product. For official products and details of the weather in your area contact your local NWS office or the NHC.

by David Van Bergen(vbhoutex)

[canegrl04]

135kts= 155mph ,so 140kts is still 160mph?

[Jevo]

Then again Joe B cannot agree with the NHC becuase there would be no reason to use Accuweather

[CFLCaneWatcher]

There is a ridge that, as of yet, hasn't developed, however, is expected to develop by the weekend and extend down into the East/Center of the GOM. This is why they are anticipating the turn to the right

[cycloneye]

Yes

[Aquawind]

Does he really think that as of this morning? How confident is he?

[btsgmdad]

I would get banned for typing what I really want to say in shock (just woke up) so will keep it clean... HOLY WATSOOLIEEESSS!!!!!!

Ditto!

[clueless newbie]

Maybe. On the other side the reds around the eye are diminishing and CDO has shrunk. Probably consequence of the slightly cooler waters Ivan is now passing over. Let's hope it will weaken (at least from Cat5 to Cat4) before hitting Jamaica.