Ivan Advisories

[Josephine96]

I wonder what the west coast EOC's are thinking right now

[Raebie]

as was mentioned in another thread, what could cause him to weaken before striking the US?

[Brent]

Not much. Mostly typical cycles(eyewall replacements).

[jlauderdal]

as was mentioned in another thread, what could cause him to weaken before striking the US?

shear,cooler water..cat 5's are rare for a good reason and their longievity is rather limited for good reason. kinda like an fsu win the last 6 years vs miami...its very very rare.

[mascpa]

hitting Jamaica and/or Cuba. Going over a land mass will weaken the storm.

[catzmeow]

Or a dolphins league championship win in the last 2 decades.

Catz

[Josephine96]

LOL.. Suffering Dolphins fan here too

[Anonymous]

I know the NHC 5am track puts Ivan in Florida...still not buying into that track.

When will NHC come out with adjusted/revised track and how many out there still think Ivan going into Florida?

Thanks for your opinions.

[PurdueWx80]

Joe was in agreement w/ the GFS...which is scary because he doesn't care much for it. He even mentioned in his posts that it wasn't like him to be in such good agreement w/ it. Anyway, I think Frances was his one big poo-poo for the year. I was in disagreement w/ him the whole time during Frances, but happen to think he is right on w/ Ivan.

[ilmc172pilot]

I think a northward turn still puts in going through florida and up the east coast...IMO that is

[Raebie]

I understand that Jlauderdal. My question was what would weaken him if he *missed* Cuba and Jamaica.

[ColinD]

I'll take "somewhere in Florida" for $500, Alex.

[N2Storms]

I'm certainly not astute enough to offer a detailed synoptical basis for my prediction. My instinct tells me that Ivan will not directly impact the Peninsula or West Gulf Coast, I'm really starting to think that this may come ashore in MS as a strong Cat 3. If he doesn't start turning more nwd then I think the Big Easy may be in his cross hairs. Just my 2 cents worth and believe me, if I had any say in the matter, I'd steer Ivan directly into Fallujah.

[Guest]

Florida again Cat 4

[adelphi_sky]

Anywhere from the Keys to north FL. I have a bad feeling FL is not going to escape this one.

[ColdWaterConch]

DT puts it in FL

Derek puts it in FL

NHC puts it in FL

All have been pretty reliable this year...and the trend is your friend.....

[CaptinCrunch]

Can you say Tampa Bay

[chris_fit]

U put it in FL

[Josephine96]

Florida again as well

[canegrl04]

Our local met says Miami to Tampa Bay need to be on the look out for Ivan